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B4 The Bell Frieday September 24


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 07:12 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

The empty piggy bank, with comments by Stephen Roach:

Under Bush, the federal government has burned through savings at an incredible clip. Roach notes that the government's net savings rate has gone from a surplus of 2.4 percent in 2000 to a deficit of 3.1 percent at the end of July. He reckons that's the largest swing from saving to dis-saving in the nation's history. "Little wonder that the politicians shy away from this issue -- they are the major source of the problem," Roach notes.

John H. Makin of the American Enterprise Institute estimates in a Sept. 22 report that cash-out refinancings pumped $100 billion annually into household disposable incomes in 2002 and 2003. That money helped consumers spend far more than they were making, according to Makin, with real consumer spending growing at 3.5 percent during the fiscal year that ended in July even though real disposable income grew at just 1.8 percent. During the three months that ended in July, consumption roared ahead at an annual rate of 4.2 percent while disposable income crept up at a rate of just 0.8 percent.

This raid-the-piggy-bank approach has allowed American consumers to play sugar daddy for the world economy. Spending down their savings, Americans have purchased the world's goods so avidly that they have pumped the current account deficit to a record 5.7 percent of GDP in this year's second quarter.


http://www.washingto...-2004Sep23.html

Foreign central banks think twice about continuing their particpation in the $1.3 trillion support 'pool'. That support includes, despite some warnings from European central banks, $250 billion in 'agency' (ie FNM & FRE) securities. If they pull back, the last leg of support for the bond market will be the flight from freaky Fannie.

The Fed's holdings of Treasury and agency debt for foreign central banks and international accounts fell by $1.183 billion to a total of $1.290 trillion in the week that ended Wednesday.

Foreign central banks often purchase Treasuries and debt sold by U.S. government agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to invest the dollars received when selling currencies.


http://quote.bloombe...rMtHxE&refer=us

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Good trading! ;)

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#2 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 07:40 AM

Very entertaining morning on crapvision.
Congressman Jim Saxton and Jim Moran in a heated debate over the deficit.
Bushes proposed tax cuts were at the heart of the matter. The repubs position being, tax cuts will foster economic growth eliminating deficits in years to come.
{Move along folks}. Saxton a democrat became VERY agitated with his position and was literally SCREAMING you are full of shite and you know it. Went on to say government debt is totally out of control and Bush has no intention of addressing the problem on his watch. He added we are leaving a living nightmare for the younger generation where they would be paying $10000.00 a year for interest costs alone on the national debt. When the host suggested Kerry had no concrete proposals to address the situation Saxton had little to offer that would give the audience a warm fuzzy feeling. Sadly the debate was cut short. I find it UFB the number one problem facing the USA gets so little air time. I could of listened to these guys go at it for hours but as usual crapvision has more important things on their agenda than some stupid debate on trillion dollar deficits.

To follow up that, Joe Kernan was ranting about how they could always rely on Franklin Raines with his many guest appearances. When Bob raving bull Froelich was queried on the FNM situation his response was shocking to say the least.Said it was only a "corporate governance" issue and we need not worry about this escalating into an LTCM type event. This is what journalism has come too. I am stunned with the complacency. We are talking about a situation that could quickly
bring the derivatives house of cards to its knees and as usual Crapvision just doesn't get it.

I too think the bizarre bond action has something to do with FNM getting it wrong. Someone is in trouble. The coming weeks will be very interesting. Watch the dollar and Eurodollar. If they start selling the Eurodollar with abandon we will know it has started. The fed has no control over the best indicator of a coming dislocation.
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#3 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 07:45 AM

Dollar 88.38 -.24
ED has set up a nice head and shoulders on the daily and is in a downtrend
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#4 DrStool

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 07:47 AM

Crapvision is not now, has never been, and never will be, "journalism." It's an infomercial. I do not watch infomercials.

The issues Hiding Bear pointed out in his open, that the media is now reporting, are things that Doc brought to your attention in the Feed report months ago. If you want history, read the Washington Post, The New York Times, or the Wall Street Journal. If you want real time insights, read these message boards, AND the Anals of Stock Proctology! Take a subscribatory today.

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#5 DrStool

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 07:48 AM

I will be boarding up and leaving Stoolbase today. Will check in over the weekend, and will post a weekend update, assuming I have electricity at my hotel in the Naples area.

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#6 DrStool

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 07:51 AM

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#7 DrStool

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 07:57 AM

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 08:01 AM

HB:

The boys on crapvision are not there to report anything that the overlords don't want reported. They are apologists for corporate and Fed fraud, and masters of misdirection. I heard the same debate you did, and I get the impression that the dems are going to start leaning in the direction of truth telling with respect to the economy...as the Dem said "these deficits are NEVER going to be paid for"

If I were a dem I'd dig up some real numbers to show that the economy is NOT in recovery and that for all the stimulus provided to date, all we have to show for it is an economy set to slide back into recession... at best. More of the same will result in more of the same.

The only thing that will save the market at this point is a really good war rally, so you can assume that the ATTACK IRAN time frame is going to be moved up. Between lack of confidence for the electronic voting machines and the fact that these bastards may just go ahead with an Iran offensive in the weeks preceeding the election - the markets would have an excuse to rally as the sentiment turns toward postponing the elections for "national security reasons"

Rule out nothing.

#9 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 08:03 AM

Crapvision is not now, has never been, and never will be, "journalism." It's an infomercial. I do not watch infomercials.

The issues Hiding Bear pointed out in his open, that the media is now reporting, are things that Doc brought to your attention in the Feed report months ago. If you want history, read the Washington Post, The New York Times, or the Wall Street Journal. If you want real time insights, read these message boards, AND the Anals of Stock Proctology! Take a subscribatory today.

Doc you will get no argument from me.
I wasn't for a second suggesting Crapvision was "journalism"
Poor phrasing on my part.
As for the masses. Fot the most part if they heard it on Crapvision CNN FOX etc it must be true. So it is journalism to them. Few take the time to read and think outside of mainstream media brainwashing. I see it everyday from those that should know better.
I watch Crapvision, which is on mute most of the time, to get a feel for the mindset of the masses. If I had no access to the media I would have little understanding as to how herd thinking is evolving. It can be a valuable tool for a contrarian such as myself.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#10 machinehead

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 08:10 AM

Crapvision is not now, has never been, and never will be, "journalism." It's an infomercial.

Owned by GE, the world's largest hedge fund.

As a March 19, 2001 Fortune article titled "Accounting in Wonderland" noted, "GE's stunning run of profit growth -- 101 straight quarters -- is somehow artificial, the result of managed earnings."

The clowns on Crapvision should be hired as a jugglers to front at the GE annual meeting.
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Posted 24 September 2004 - 08:15 AM

How did this film even make it into Iraq? OOOPS!

U.S. Troops in Iraq Gather to Watch Fahrenheit 9/11
Click here!

The Christian Science Monitor reports that American troops in Iraq have vocalized the importance of their vote after gathering around screens for a viewing of Michael Moore's controversial 'Fahrenheit 9/11.'

'Everyone's watching it,' a Marine corporal told the CSM, speaking from an outpost in Ramadi that is mortared daily by insurgents. 'It's shaping a lot of people's image of Bush.'

According to one US soldier the view seems different from the field. '[For] 9 out of 10 of the people I talk to, it wouldn't matter who ran against Bush - they'd vote for them,' the soldier told CSM. 'People are so fed up with Iraq, and fed up with Bush.'

Several soldiers spoke to CSM, voicing opinions about being 'lied to,' and not wanting to fight a war that they don't believe in.

'We shouldn't be here,' one Marine infantryman bluntly told the CSM. 'There was no reason for invading this country in the first place. We just came here and [angered people] and killed a lot of innocent people...I don't enjoy killing women and children, it's not my thing.'

http://www.elitestv....30016714c3.html

#12 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 08:17 AM

Plunger

Do you think Kerry will adjust the parties platform?
Make the deficit an issue? I'm not an American and dont have a sense for the populations concern over what is the biggest problem facing the planet today.
Lately the medias awareness on the debt disaster seems to be coming off All Time Lows. Would be interested on your take.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#13 traderfromhell

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 08:18 AM

HB:

The boys on crapvision are not there to report anything that the overlords don't want reported. They are apologists for corporate and Fed fraud, and masters of misdirection. I heard the same debate you did, and I get the impression that the dems are going to start leaning in the direction of truth telling with respect to the economy...as the Dem said "these deficits are NEVER going to be paid for"

If I were a dem I'd dig up some real numbers to show that the economy is NOT in recovery and that for all the stimulus provided to date, all we have to show for it is an economy set to slide back into recession... at best. More of the same will result in more of the same.

The only thing that will save the market at this point is a really good war rally, so you can assume that the ATTACK IRAN time frame is going to be moved up. Between lack of confidence for the electronic voting machines and the fact that these bastards may just go ahead with an Iran offensive in the weeks preceeding the election - the markets would have an excuse to rally as the sentiment turns toward postponing the elections for "national security reasons"

Rule out nothing.

Since Kerry isn't standing on his head deploring Iraq and the deficits I can only assume he wouldn't do too much different than The Shrub. I am holding out hope though. Shrub must go.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#14 traderfromhell

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 08:20 AM

Plunger

Do you think Kerry will adjust the parties platform?
Make the deficit an issue? I'm not an American and dont have a sense for the populations concern over what is the biggest problem facing the planet today.
Lately the medias awareness on the debt disaster seems to be coming off All Time Lows. Would be interested on your take.

I'm a bit selfish. My concerns are kids fed mortgage paid car paid then all else.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#15 Bearman

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Posted 24 September 2004 - 08:26 AM

Very entertaining morning on crapvision.
Congressman Jim Saxton and Jim Moran in a heated debate over the deficit.
Bushes proposed tax cuts were at the heart of the matter. The repubs position being, tax cuts will foster economic growth eliminating deficits in years to come.
{Move along folks}. Saxton a democrat became VERY agitated with his position and was literally SCREAMING you are full of shite and you know it. Went on to say government debt is totally out of control and Bush has no intention of addressing the problem on his watch. He added we are leaving a living nightmare for the younger generation where they would be paying $10000.00 a year for interest costs alone on the national debt. When the host suggested Kerry had no concrete proposals to address the situation Saxton had little to offer that would give the audience a warm fuzzy feeling. Sadly the debate was cut short. I find it UFB the number one problem facing the USA gets so little air time. I could of listened to these guys go at it for hours but as usual crapvision has more important things on their agenda than some stupid debate on trillion dollar deficits.

To follow up that, Joe Kernan was ranting about how they could always rely on Franklin Raines with his many guest appearances. When Bob raving bull Froelich was queried on the FNM situation his response was shocking to say the least.Said it was only a "corporate governance" issue and we need not worry about this escalating into an LTCM type event. This is what journalism has come too. I am stunned with the complacency. We are talking about a situation that could quickly
bring the derivatives house of cards to its knees and as usual Crapvision just doesn't get it.

I too think the bizarre bond action has something to do with FNM getting it wrong. Someone is in trouble. The coming weeks will be very interesting. Watch the dollar and Eurodollar. If they start selling the Eurodollar with abandon we will know it has started. The fed has no control over the best indicator of a coming dislocation.

you can say that again!!!

how bout the fantasy football? pure B.S.





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