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B4 the Bell Humpday, Sept. 22, 2004


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#331 Bearbones

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 08:28 PM

Does this make sense?

Long term rates are falling because the spread traders are getting their profits squeezed as the cost of borrowing goes up and are forced to buy longer maturities to compensate.

So this means that Greenspan is intentionally flattening the yield curve to force mortgage rates down and reignite the housing bubble?

Will it work if rates get below 3.6%?  :unsure:

Since the housing bubble is also tied to the employment numbers and consumer confidence and consumer's ability to borrow against their equity to continue to spend beyond their means, they will stop at nothing to send mortgage rates as close to zero as possible.

Don't expect another round of refi-madness this time around. Many of the newer loans (the ones not already refinanced) were adjustables (as many as 40% in the May-June period). Many of those are tied to shorter rates and will not be adjusting downward. It will take a move below 3.5% on the ten-year to get much traction from refis. An inverted yield curve might get some adjustables to fix out their rates but an inverted curve is the last thing anybody at the Fed wants to see.

As for Greenspan being behind this; I don't think so. A steeper yield curve is good for his charges, i.e., the banks. This is the bond market doing what it has always done. It senses weakness, it never believed much in the "recovery". And it likes what it sees-an economy in traction rather than getting traction.

#332 Ned38

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 08:35 PM

:lol: Ya gotta try this one :lol:

http://www.screentoys.com/

#333 anotherone

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 08:36 PM

Art Cashin just now-"We could be going to a new low this rally could be just a rally in a Bear Market, institutions are getting out." I hope he looks under his car before he gets in it!

He's ok. Distribution is complete. The markdown campaign begins.
"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003

#334 machinehead

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 08:38 PM

The Justice Department has agreed to release a U.S. citizen held as an enemy combatant for more than two years, clearing the way for him to return to Saudi Arabia, officials said Wednesday.


Ashcroft v. Hamdi

This is one of the cases that went all the way to the Supreme Court. Now the 'Justice' Dept. walks away from it. Probably they had nothing on Hamdi.

The Padilla case remains, where an American citizen has been held for more than two years without access to judicial processes ... and was recently told by the Supreme Court to start over in a different district court, based on a technicality of jurisdiction.

Today's deportation of Cat Stevens / Yusuf Islam is another fascist signifier ... free countries don't restrict the entry of artists, writers and musicians that they disapprove of.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

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#335 Hiding Bear

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 08:41 PM

Don't know wether many caught it today BUT-Heating OIL reserves are at their lowest level in 28 years rather than a build for winter there has been a drawdown. If you live in the Northeast you might just be chopping up the Furniture over the winter. Also today not ONE Dow stock was in the green today not ONE and when have we ever seen that happen!

Tanks B4. The downside accleration into October is just getting started, subject to temporary setbacks and month end portfolio manipulation.

More on peak oil in SA from the latest Simmons & Co:

The Fading of Saudi Arabia's Oil

Attached Images

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#336 DrStool

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 08:42 PM

Turning The Corner

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#337 brian4

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 08:55 PM

Ned that was Goood real Goood- Global's National newscast just reported at length and with a lot of footage that last night in Baghdad was the WORST fighting of what we now know is a War. It showed incredibly vicious Fire fights and an American Chopper crash-landing after being hit. What makes me puke is we outside of America see what is really going on and you don't. Plunger is right the U.S. media is totally controlled and that is scary. I just did a tour of the news sites and not a peep about what went down last nite in Baghdad-the Sheeple better wake up before their Country is gone. Also they reported on a Canadian woman in her 20's who was kidnapped for a week and somehow escaped but what staggered me was WHY she was there how about 20K @ month and you know who is paying for that Huh-you are! :unsure:

#338 Bearman

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 08:58 PM

Off Topic --but Kerry talking bout the draft coming back if the Bushman is reelected

http://news.yahoo.co...kerry&printer=1

For the record!

Looking first at Senate Bill 89, one can quickly and easily note that this bill was introduced on January 7, 2003 by Senator Fritz Hollings (D-South Carolina).

Now, looking at HR 163, one will note the names on the bill introduced the same day that Senator Hollings introduced SB 89: Representatives Charles Rangel (D-New York), Jim McDermott (D-Washington), John Conyers (D-Michigan), John Lewis (D-Georgia), Pete Stark (D-California) and Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii).

Flame away, I have my asbestos jumpsuit on :D

no suit needed :P lefty's need to re-write history /too bad most

laugth @ them :P :P :P

#339 anotherone

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 09:00 PM

Covered my net short position right near 1113. Larry had a low at that price. If we break on down much further I will go big time short for a move to 1050 but not yet. I just don't trust the criminals. Back to straddled with Oct puts and November calls.

What did Moe and Curly have for lows? :lol:
(Couldn't pass on a straight line like that!)
"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003

#340 Stool in a Pool

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 09:03 PM

Today's deportation of Cat Stevens / Yusuf Islam is another fascist signifier ... free countries don't restrict the entry of artists, writers and musicians that they disapprove of.

Some earlier posted that Cat Stevens / Yusuf Islam had endorsed the call for the death of Salman Rushdie, but that does not appear to be the case.

#341 purdymouth

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 09:04 PM

This little chart makes a clean break from the monotony and is on the cusp of a preliminary sell.

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

#342 Hiding Bear

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 09:22 PM

Well, well, I metioned many times that there will be a late year push to undue the tax increases they already put in place for next year. Yes GWB did approve them. Now they want them reversed and they've added some new 'incentives' for big business.

Republicans Push Ahead to Extend Tax Cuts
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: September 22, 2004


WASHINGTON -- Suddenly, legislation to extend three popular middle-class tax cuts is being eyed as a way to extend other expiring tax breaks, from research credits for companies to credits to promote economic development at ground zero in New York.

Republican tax writers on a joint House-Senate conference committee are seeking to add business tax breaks to a proposal that originally dealt only with middle-class taxpayers.

The bill being would cost the Treasury $145.7 billion in lost revenue over a 10-year period, according to a preliminary committee estimate. Some $131.5 billion was covered by extending three tax cuts that are due to expire at year's end.


http://www.nytimes.c...ax-Cuts.html?hp

The effect on the deficit is very much understated - as there are additional scheduled tax increases they have not yet been reversed, but probably will be after the election.

#343 flockofsheeples

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 09:28 PM

Can anyone remember the Simpsons episode where Homer ran for the Office of Sanitation Boss.

"the garbage man can, the garbage man can".

:lol:
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

#344

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 09:32 PM

pretty funny,

aug 27 north korea says they're gonna off a nuke on sept 9th in the mountains

sept 8 new york times article u.s. state dept. warns north korea is gonna off a nuke.

sept 9 mushroom cloud 2.5 mi wide, seismos go wild, major crater north korea

sept 10 powell goes round the world saying no nuke

sept 13 north korea says no nukes

sept 15 "inspectors" taken to different spot, say no nuke here

sept 19 Jiang Zemin steps down as Chinese leader - Hu takes his place

sept 20 Hu's first official act - fire new cruise missle in test toward Taiwan

uss stennis - south china sea
uss nimitz - west pacific (sea of japan)
uss vinson - west pacific (east china sea)

and what's on the news - king george and john f kerry and dan rather lying their asses off


GOT GOLD?

#345 RockLedge

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Posted 22 September 2004 - 09:34 PM

Covered my net short position right near 1113. Larry had a low at that price. If we break on down much further I will go big time short for a move to 1050 but not yet. I just don't trust the criminals. Back to straddled with Oct puts and November calls.

T.E.

Are you looking toward possible end-of-month and end-of-quarter strength, as the criminals try to paint the tape for their client statements?

Yes but also the Repub's doin their thang into the elections. Mid Oct. better not be a low cyle wise or Bush is toast. I am going to assume for the time being that "they" are going to through everything they got at this thing to keep it afloat until the elections. If we break through 1090. Bush will lose. Hell, I think he is going to lose anyway.

I just wonder where and how they would pump, in that scenario. The crude oil drawdown figures today were one of the worst weekly reports ever. Trannies got damaged for a good funnymental reason.

Probably it would have to be a low interest rate scenario. T-notes under 4.0% helping the homebubblers. FNMA's nightmare somehow being swept under the carpet. Convincing homeowners that the real estate mania lives. And so forth.

What sectors are you watching for clues?

I just wonder where and how they would pump, in that scenario. The crude oil drawdown figures today were one of the worst weekly reports ever. Trannies got damaged for a good funnymental reason.



Sure is strange out there. Our neighborhood markets, like Las Vegas, Reno, & Pasco Wash., are 25 to 30 cents higher than us in SLC. Demand is very, very, strong across the entire spectrum. SLC just can't get squat for it. We make something, but not much. No one here in the valley wants to lead the price higher.

We'll see how long that stands, sooner than later, the price of gasoline has to rise. Or, demand will have to at least, pause & rest.

I'll casually watch the U.P. railyard while I'm working and I'm telling you, it's not slowing down at all. Just this week I saw load coming thru with 8 monster engines in front of it. I swear the end of it was somewhere in Cali. It had to be at least 4 or 5 miles long. What was the cargo,.. mile after mile of mostly empty car hoppers. Today, was the exact samething. Today was no different, like everyday has been for the last year and half. It's not as intense as it was a year ago, but is far from slowing.

And there's the volatility in crude oil, what more can said about that. Pretty damn greedy if you ask me. Someone is making a fortune & someone else is losing a fortune. And I'm of the opinion crude is headed much higher.

B4, I can report that's there's not much more than a buckets worth of heating oil in 3 states...) Ut., Wy., & Id. However, we're all natural gas and what is not, is on C3.

So far, the majors are damn bullish, every dip is being bought.

For the Jane & John Doe's out there that listened and agreed with notion that crude was headed lower and sold out of their own shares, you can buy them back from Wall Struck now. :lol:





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