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The Publicists And The Handlers


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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:21 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – January 10, 2002

Never underestimate the power of the Publicists and Handlers. The Wall Street Matrix has put on a non-stop infomercial regarding the “New Bull Market” fueled by the “U.S. Consumer” and “IT Spending”. It is everywhere. In every newspaper. In every magazine. On every financial news program. It has infected everyone everywhere.

It really is no different than the recent full court press put on by the handlers and promoters of Jennifer Anniston. She has been everywhere.

The Gann Turn Date and the Bradley Turn Date is here.

Today looked like an exhaustion blowoff in the morning. An attempt was made to retest the morning highs, but the volume wasn’t there and we gave it up in the late afternoon, with a last minute “jam” to solidify two positive weeks in a row for the “January Effect”.

Yet another day with a Nasdaq TRIN of .35 or so most of the day. Hysterical runs were made on the single digit midgets the last two days.

Monday should give us a low risk shorting opportunity. But The Color Commentator is cautious, warning us of some OE Rackteering games next week:

“A solid 'breech' of 1500 will suck people right in at the top which is what is needed before Wave 3 down intiates. Without more people stock chasing the next big wave down simply doesn't work. It needs Bear fuel, vittles to be scarfed up by the Great Kodiak right where most are convinced that the New Bull is in booster stage. People are constantly calling out numbers and lines, its all just so much Tomfooolery. What will happen is simpler than that. The SPY will 'breach' its 200 day and so will the Dow, the guns will go off, the red, white and blue will be unfurled, Cramer will come out of the closet and wear a tight clinging spandex dress on camera with high 6 inch pumps and a fake mole spotted stategically above his cheekbone. Then the selling will begin. It will be the biggest headfake since Michael Jordan put Karl Malone in the popcorn machine in game 6 of the 98 NBA finals.”

“Time for Al Green to jam some future contracts and begin a serious test of 1521, this will set up very good negative MACD in the 10 day chart, right now we are in negative divergence but I sense another old man thrust up to get all the greater fools in at top and mandate a 2003 Bull Market. Kudlow may just whip it out afterhours and try to lube up in celebration, maybe get his first Woodie in years. Cramer will be filming it on hands and knees with one paw down his pants. LaRoche will be beating Bob 'Mr. Clean' Froelich with a police stick and the whole gang will be rejoicing. Happy New Year. The riff raff is climbing out of the woodwork and announcing itself, the stench of pig dropping is overwhelming. Remember that unless the front floor of the Casino is packed with slot players just off the bus the Al Green show going on in the back lounge doesn't get renewed. He's working under a hot spot now, the sequins in his green sharkskin suit are dazzling all the drunks nodding out in the aisles. If he can't continue to draw with old standards like "Try to Remember" and "If I Were a Rich Man" than it could be all over for him, the pink slip could slide under the dressing room door, some dwarf from Circus De Soleil could take his locker and he could be thumbing down the road to Barstow in no time, just another empty old loser on the road to ignominy and shame.”

Never before have I seen such extreme hope and hysteria. I thought we reached a peak in that area last March, but the current mood far exceeds it.

Now, more than ever, the U.S. Consumer is in charge of feeding the entire planet’s GDP.

Now, more than ever, the U.S. Dollar – backed paper securities are given a status so high, that the speculators truly believe that these instruments are virtually bulletproof.

Now, more than ever, the mutual fund managers can dig deep into their credit lines to finance the purchase of exotic tech stocks, knowing that if they make a mistake, the Man Behind the Curtain will show up with his furious futures buying to “save” the market from breaking some type of “support” line.

Never before has the Liquidity Bubble been kept so high for so long. This era must exceed the John Law fiasco with respect to Bubble Acceleration. Expert GSE engineering, Repo Jamming, Dollar Printing has created a swirl of speculative money recycling round and round as if it were caught inside an Atomic Particle Accelerator.

Just the action found in the stock market is evidence enough of the huge pools of speculative capital running this way and that, chasing The Girlfriend of the Week.

Nobody knows where it will end, when it will end, or how it will end.

Notice how the U.S. Dollar is now falling off a cliff, yet nobody is paying attention. The rest of the world who does not participate in leveraged paper profiteering must be in aghast at the circus playing out here in the Speculative Arena.

Picture some guy selling vegetables in a bazaar in Turkey probably watching C.N.B.C., seeing the flurry of ticker quotes, the hordes of anal cysts and predictions, the wild assumptions about future consumer spending, the obsession with IT spending, and all the rest.

He must be totally bewildered and confused, wondering how things have reached this level. Meanwhile, he detects a slow and quiet murmur about “gold”, how people are starting to stock up, and not telling anyone else. A fundamental shift which he cannot put his finger on, but he feels that the paper pyramid he sees on TV is going to collapse, and the world is going to change very soon.

Everyone should live it up now, as long as the MTV Spring Break continues unabated. Because when the party ends, things will be bad for everybody.

This weekend we will get the Barron’s Roundtable predictions for 2003 and start building model portfolios to see how they perform.

We also have a flurry of guests on all the financial shows, which I will be taping to document the last gasp of insanity if indeed another major top was put in this week.

The “I Dare You” short portfolio is up 12.43% since October 22.

The Girlfriend of the Week is non other than Jennifer Anniston.

The next post is last week’s 2001 and 2002 prediction results from the top anal cysts. A miserable failure. We shall see what 2003’s predictions are, and we will post them here later.

Position Summary:

No changes.

We are 24% short, 30% long, 46% cash.

Half Short:

INTU at $53
MBI at $50

Quarter Short:

FRE at $68
KBH at $49
LEN at $56
TOL at $27
COCO at $40
NCEN at $28
LOW at $42

Full Long:

GG at $11
HL at $4.55

Half Long:

BGO at $1.31
PAAS at $5
DROOY at $3.35
GLG at $9
MDG at $16
GSS at $1.72
SIL at $15.50
WHT at $1.05

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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#2 wndysrf

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:22 PM

The 2001 and 2002 Predictions from the Wall Struck anal cysts

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#3 MrHanky

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:37 PM

just flippin through the channels after the market closed.it was some moron chick on oprah who wanted to put 40k on her credit card to have a wedding(she already has 25k in cc debt)

suzie ormond was trying to tell her"if you pay the mimimum payment on 40k,it will take you over 100 years to pay it off @ over $600 a month"

she said "i don't care,i want a big wedding,I want to remember this day forever"

she will remember it forever all right,thats how long she will be payin for it!I guess bankrupcy will bail them out just like uncle al bails the markets daily.




I want a lamborghini,( I'm sure i have the credit for it too),but i'm not that stupid.people are so out of control it's insane.

Nothing


#4 GregFokker

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:42 PM

just flippin through the channels after the market closed.it was some moron chick on oprah who wanted to put 40k on her credit card to have a wedding(she already has 25k in cc debt)

suzie ormond was trying to tell her"if you pay the mimimum payment on 40k,it will take you over 100 years to pay it off @ over $600 a month"

she said "i don't care,i want a big wedding,I want to remember this day forever"

she will remember it forever all right,thats how long she will be payin for it!I guess bankrupcy will bail them out just like uncle al bails the markets daily.




I want a lamborghini,( I'm sure i have the credit for it too),but i'm not that stupid.people are so out of control it's insane.

Not to be unsympathetic, but that "I don't care, I want a big wedding" erases any sympathy one might otherwise have. Someone should send a videotape of the show to all the major credit card companies with her name, so that an attorney can seek a continuation of proceedings against her bankruptcy stay when she eventually gives up. Just shameful. Then again, how does such a numbskull have such a high credit limit?

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#5 GTNWORSE

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:43 PM

Hey Guys,
Bought the QQQ at 26.82 and sold at 26.85. Never will I be a day-trader again. I don't know how you guys do it.

Mark, I'm getting 100% financing for clients to buy $400,000 bargain condos in West Hollywood. These guys have 600 credit scores, make $100,000+, but have $2,000-$10,000 in cash saved. Simply amazing, will never understand it!!
As long as this kind of financing continues to be available the real estate bubble here in LA will continue to grow.

To the poster who indicated a decline in housing prices during the last reporting period note that housing is always soft in the fourth and first quarters!.

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:47 PM

The thing that bothers me the most is that shows like "Oprah" and other shows of that ilk are on in the afternoon when children, home from school, can see them.

Great post Mark. I sure hope the one you put on IDS in the afternoon is on time. I shorted into the bate and switch this morning. Did it with XLNX. They're good, real good.

#7 GregFokker

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:50 PM

The thing that bothers me the most is that shows like "Oprah" and other shows of that ilk are on in the afternoon when children, home from school, can see them.

What bothers me is that shows like Oprah are on at all :grin: Can't we afford to send everyone to school yet? Is that kind of self-important drivel still necessary?

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#8 microdon

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:57 PM

MM-Is it safe to assume with today's commentary that the "thousand points of light" up-up-and-away commentary from yesterday has been rethunk out of existence? You know, those Bradley and Gann turn dates were the same yesterday as they were today. Of course, you might have been ironic in yesterday's commentary, demonstrating in your analysis the kind of hysterical swings of mood among traders. Me thinks one last crazy up is coming. . .and it might be coming on Tuesday. Me thinks a rumor about MSFT and INTC earnings will be circulated on Tuesday PM, along the lines of the rumor about the "good" jobs report that was circulated on Thursday, ahead of the actual report. What a perfect way to trap the last few sheeple! :D

#9 MrHanky

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:58 PM

mark,awesome commentary as usual

the deeper we go into the bear,the stupider it gets.as seen in my post above,the credit bubble is just beyond belief.there has to be an event which puts an end to it.people will keep buying stuff till they are all bankrupt,they don't care what happens along the way.

most people will take anything if they don't have to pay for it.I was watching a furniture commercial earlier and it said"no payments till 2004"...then it said in the fine print"after 1 year the interest rate is 27.9%....what????27.9 percent!!!.I guess that $3000 couch will cost $20000 after interest.

I could get a loan from john gotti with better terms than that.

Nothing


#10 Hypertiger

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 06:00 PM

Visa... It's all you need.

Burn baby burn Bwahahahahahahahahahah...

Where's Merciless? These days...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#11 rog

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 06:15 PM

just flippin through the channels after the market closed.it was some moron chick on oprah who wanted to put 40k on her credit card to have a wedding(she already has 25k in cc debt)

suzie ormond was trying to tell her"if you pay the mimimum payment on 40k,it will take you over 100 years to pay it off @ over $600 a month"

she said "i don't care,i want a big wedding,I want to remember this day forever"

she will remember it forever all right,thats how long she will be payin for it!I guess bankrupcy will bail them out just like uncle al bails the markets daily.




I want a lamborghini,( I'm sure i have the credit for it too),but i'm not that stupid.people are so out of control it's insane.

Good for her. She should do it. If COF wants to advance her $40k to throw a party she should hold out both hands. How are they going to repo a wedding when she defaults on the payment?

This women may not be too bright the real morons are COF and the asset backed securities buyers.

#12 longOnUranus

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 06:15 PM

A friend of mine just put on a 70K wedding for his (only) daughter. The option was a great wedding or a down payment on a house. Your choice, sweetheart.

The fairy tale lies deep within a woman's heart. It is the divergence with the reality she looks at everyday that makes her so discontent. 90% of American women would say the same thing as my friend's daughter did, which is why 90% eventually need Prozac.

Then there's a girl from my college days, who married a frat bro of mine for a few years. She was wise enough to have her MAIDEN initials engraved on the china and silverware. She probably made others take the Prozac.

Weddings have nothing to do with the economy, except at the margins of society.

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 06:18 PM

I thank G-d every day Madam Dung is part of the 10% LoU.

#14 The End

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Posted 10 January 2003 - 06:20 PM

i wish i got payed a third of what any of those guru's got payed for being wrong. I was up 10.5% last year. :wink2: without shorting no less (clients)



http://www.mcs.surre...cci/fibnat.html

I posted this link on fibonacci numbers in nature on LOB for discussion there.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#15 DrStool

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