I will be surprised if the eloquent G. W. Bush doesn't refer to Hurricane Ivan as "Hurricane Iran" ... thus exposing the sinister 'linkage' between evil weather and 'evil mullahs.'
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Douglas Fabian, editor of the Douglas Fabian's Successful Investing newsletter, says "yes." He believes that surpassing the 39-week moving average significantly increases the likelihood that the market will continue to go up.
So on Monday he sold from his newsletter's model portfolio the mutual funds it previously had been holding -- Rydex Ursa (RYURX: news, chart, profile) and Rydex Tempest (RYTPX: news, chart, profile) funds, which make money when the market declines -- and replaced them with funds that will profit if the market rises.
Unfortunately, his newsletter's track record over the past 25 years provides little insight into whether we should follow Fabian's lead.
okay from my simpleton anlaysis , breaking thru the area where the first dippers bought is a good sign.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg
Douglas Fabian, editor of the Douglas Fabian's Successful Investing newsletter, says "yes." He believes that surpassing the 39-week moving average significantly increases the likelihood that the market will continue to go up.
So on Monday he sold from his newsletter's model portfolio the mutual funds it previously had been holding -- Rydex Ursa (RYURX: news, chart, profile) and Rydex Tempest (RYTPX: news, chart, profile) funds, which make money when the market declines -- and replaced them with funds that will profit if the market rises.
Unfortunately, his newsletter's track record over the past 25 years provides little insight into whether we should follow Fabian's lead.
In fact, the 39-week moving average portfolio has now lagged a buy-and-hold for 13 years in a row.
Blake LeBaron, a finance professor at Brandeis University ... speculates that the 39-week moving average might have been sabotaged by too many investors trying to follow it. Ownership of personal computers skyrocketed in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and coupled with cheap online databases, those PCs enabled a much larger group of investors than ever before to discover and quickly exploit the moving average. A dramatic lowering in transaction costs at about the same time made it very easier for investors to trade on signals generated by the 39-week moving average.
Too many punters on the same side of the moving average boat ...
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
The though occurred to me, watching Aaron Brown's rant on CNN last night, that investors, both domestic and foreign, are about to wake up to the fact that the US is losing in Iraq. The last secular bear market developed over a period of war, with increasing public awareness that US was losing.
But the dollar is up sharply today. So there goes that theory.
Excellent observation. In my readings, this seems to be the pattern: wars generally lead to economic collapse for participants- especially for those who do not win. We have many good historians on this site (i am not) so maybe someone can comment.
Re: today's dollar's rise -looks like it may turn into the proverbial middle finger on the 15 minute chart....
Also this just released lots of interesting details: (will check this out later)
DJ Oil Cos Agree To Code Easing North Sea Pipeline Access
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Oil companies in the North Sea, including heavyweights BP PLC (BP) and Royal Dutch/Shell Group (RD, SC) have agreed with the U.K. government to adhere to a new code of conduct aimed at easing access to undersea pipelines.
BS: If you are out there ; I hope you will continue to post. Not speaking for the end, but I do not think it was anything personal.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg
saved@1120? I thought 1122/1123 was the big nubmer?
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg
Ya BS it wasn't, c'mon back- we are skating on the razor blade of 1120 right now, in the next 12 minutes it takes a huge astro hit, 1120 should fall and we then drop fast!
The reason for this outsized inventory draw down probably has EVERYTHING tto do with having lied in the previous couple of reports...and it was just time to "come to Jesus"
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg
