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B4 The Bell Humpday September 15


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 07:07 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D Also a welcome to new members.

The credit bubble is still staggering:

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - New applications for U.S. home loans fell last week as 30-year mortgage rates declined to their lowest level since late March, an industry group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted market index, a measure of mortgage activity, fell for the week ending Sept 10 by 2 percent to 678.2 from the previous week's 692.0.

Thirty-year mortgage rates, excluding fees, averaged 5.68 percent, down 0.11 percentage point from the previous week and down 0.23 percentage point from a year ago, the Washington trade group said.

The Washington trade group's purchase index, a gauge of new loan requests for home purchases, fell last week by 4.3 percent to 455.7 from 476.0 in the prior week.

However, the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index on new refinancing applications rose for a second week, by 1.2 percent to 1,972.5 for last week from the previous week's 1,948.9.


http://www.reuters.c...storyID=6241422

But Sec. Snow only can see growth, and blames China and the World for growing too slow:

Snow described the global economy as being in better shape now than it had been in a long time and said U.S. policies deserved credit for fostering prosperity.

"That said, the rest of the world is still growing too slowly," Snow said, adding, "the trade deficit is largely a result of the global growth deficit."

He said the U.S. economy, with the help of the Bush administration's tax cuts, was on solid ground after a period of weakness in 2000 and 2001 that was made worse by the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

"We are beyond recovery," Snow said, "We are experiencing solid economic growth." He acknowledged that U.S. budget deficits were too big and were unwelcome, but he said the key to shrinking the shortfall between spending and income was faster growth.


http://www.reuters.c...storyID=6237563

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Off topic - Where does oil and natural gas come from?

Long-dead plant matter may not be the world's only source of hydrocarbons. Twelve miles or more beneath its surface, in hellish temperatures and under pressures 50,000 times that at sea level, the earth itself may be generating methane, say researchers who have squeezed common rock and water together to reproduce these conditions.

The discovery bears on a longstanding argument about the source of petroleum and whether deposits are generated by rotting vegetation or by inorganic processes. "If the answer turns out to be inorganic, this has huge implications for the ecology and economy of our planet as well as for the chemistry of other planets," said the physicist Dr. Freeman Dyson, of the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, in a written comment, adding that the new work showed how to do experiments that will tackle the question. Most experts agree that commercially significant oil and gas deposits are biological in origin.


http://www.nytimes.c...nce/14meth.html

#2 DrStool

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 07:20 AM

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#3 seamus

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 07:29 AM

Soft Patch Continued:

07:03 ET Coca-Cola lowers second half expectations (KO) 42.87: KO sees Q3 EPS of $0.46-0.48, ex items, vs the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.54. For Q4 KO sees EPS of $0.42-0.44, ex items, vs the Reuters consensus of $0.45

06:36 ET Tribune guides below consensus (TRB) 40.35: Company issues downside guidance for Q3 (Sep), sees EPS of $0.49-0.51 vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.54.

#4 KeyboardProspector

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 07:35 AM

There is potentially a HUGE stealth add coming into the system today and tomorrow.

Don't look to the Fed's open market operations to find this add, all the Fed has to do is keep the current Repo activity flat to make it happen.....Why?

Everyone is aware that the 5 & 10 year Notes recently auctioned are to be setteled today. Those settlements together total $24B. BUT beginning two weeks ago the Treasury issued 14 day, 12 day, and 7 day Cash Management Bills totaling $41B, which are set to expire today.

As the Treasury issued each of these CMB's Uncle Al was kind enough to monitize them. One CMB, the 7 day of $9B was covered almost entirely by a Fed 8 day Repo of $8.25B.

Let's see.... $24B new Debt, Return of $41B, net add of $17B! All of which was funded by the Fed.....

That's only half the story, tomorrow we have settlement of 4, 13, and 26 wk Bills for a net reduction of $11B.

Unless the Fed drains agressively there will be a huge stealth add.

There is the other side of this coin though..... What has the Treasury been doing with all of this liquidity for the last two weeks, and how is the treasury suddenly coming up with a spare $28B? The published debt figure didn't bounce with these short term issuances the way you would expect.

We may also see the Fed adjusting its portfolio by doing coupon or bill passes in exchange for some pullback in Repos(but at the current rate for the 10 year, it would be suprising).

Interesting to watch actions in the next two days....

#5 machinehead

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 07:54 AM

George W. Bush, closet Stoolie.

You laugh in derision!

But I retort, read this excerpt from an interview with Kitty Kelley in the Guardian:

But, as one of W's Yalie frat brothers tells Kelley, it's not the substance abuse in Bush's past that's disturbing, it's the "lack of substance ... Georgie, as we called him, had absolutely no intellectual curiosity about anything. He wasn't interested in ideas or in books or causes. He didn't travel; he didn't read the newspapers; he didn't watch the news; he didn't even go to the movies. How anyone got out of Yale without developing some interest in the world besides booze and sports stuns me." New Yorker writer Brendan Gill recalls roaming the Kennebunkport compound one night while staying there looking for a book to read - the only title he could find was The Fart Book.


The Fart Book
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#6

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:07 AM

There is potentially a HUGE stealth add coming into the system today and tomorrow.

Don't look to the Fed's open market operations to find this add, all the Fed has to do is keep the current Repo activity flat to make it happen.....Why?

Everyone is aware that the 5 & 10 year Notes recently auctioned are to be setteled today. Those settlements together total $24B. BUT beginning two weeks ago the Treasury issued 14 day, 12 day, and 7 day Cash Management Bills totaling $41B, which are set to expire today.

As the Treasury issued each of these CMB's Uncle Al was kind enough to monitize them. One CMB, the 7 day of $9B was covered almost entirely by a Fed 8 day Repo of $8.25B.

Let's see.... $24B new Debt, Return of $41B, net add of $17B! All of which was funded by the Fed.....

That's only half the story, tomorrow we have settlement of 4, 13, and 26 wk Bills for a net reduction of $11B.

Unless the Fed drains agressively there will be a huge stealth add.

There is the other side of this coin though..... What has the Treasury been doing with all of this liquidity for the last two weeks, and how is the treasury suddenly coming up with a spare $28B? The published debt figure didn't bounce with these short term issuances the way you would expect.

We may also see the Fed adjusting its portfolio by doing coupon or bill passes in exchange for some pullback in Repos(but at the current rate for the 10 year, it would be suprising).

Interesting to watch actions in the next two days....

It would seem as though the Fed has learned the high art of impossible-to-track bookkeeping from the likes of Enron, Freddy and Fannie.

#7 machinehead

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:14 AM

[James] Grant told the standing room audience [in Las Vegas] that he is a "gold believer" and though he thinks the price of the metal will go up he is an "expert at not knowing when."


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Aren't we all, Jeem. Aren't we all.

Despite a hesitant Fed, Grant believes that a generational bear market in bonds began in January of 2003. All bond bull and bear markets are generational, Grant says, and coincide with the life cycles of monetary systems. But as far as what the bond market will do next week, next month or next year, Grant is an agnostic.


Surely that's a misquote -- the great bond market price top was in June 2003. But yes, I believe that was it.

But, just because he believes interest rates are about to rise and putting away a few gold coins is a good idea, doesnít mean Grant is all doom and gloom. Grantís parting words were; "I think this will be a great world for our children and grandchildren."


:blink: :blink: :blink:

Huh? Talk about a non sequitur. I thought you was a BEAR, Jeem .... :mellow:

Link
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#8 traderfromhell

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:22 AM

George W. Bush, closet Stoolie.

You laugh in derision!

But I retort, read this excerpt from an interview with Kitty Kelley in the Guardian:

But, as one of W's Yalie frat brothers tells Kelley, it's not the substance abuse in Bush's past that's disturbing, it's the "lack of substance ... Georgie, as we called him, had absolutely no intellectual curiosity about anything. He wasn't interested in ideas or in books or causes. He didn't travel; he didn't read the newspapers; he didn't watch the news; he didn't even go to the movies. How anyone got out of Yale without developing some interest in the world besides booze and sports stuns me." New Yorker writer Brendan Gill recalls roaming the Kennebunkport compound one night while staying there looking for a book to read - the only title he could find was The Fart Book.


The Fart Book

I saw Kelley on Hardball last night. Without names her book will NOT be believed by J6P.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#9

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:29 AM

George W. Bush, closet Stoolie.

You laugh in derision!

But I retort, read this excerpt from an interview with Kitty Kelley in the Guardian:

But, as one of W's Yalie frat brothers tells Kelley, it's not the substance abuse in Bush's past that's disturbing, it's the "lack of substance ... Georgie, as we called him, had absolutely no intellectual curiosity about anything. He wasn't interested in ideas or in books or causes. He didn't travel; he didn't read the newspapers; he didn't watch the news; he didn't even go to the movies. How anyone got out of Yale without developing some interest in the world besides booze and sports stuns me." New Yorker writer Brendan Gill recalls roaming the Kennebunkport compound one night while staying there looking for a book to read - the only title he could find was The Fart Book.


The Fart Book

I saw Kelley on Hardball last night. Without names her book will NOT be believed by J6P.

With the entire US media machine allied against anything that comes out of her mouth, how could J6P possibly conclude that she is anything other than a nut-job? Bush will simply begin to mention her and Kerry in the same breath to taint Kerry's credibility by association.

How easy is this?

#10 Calculus

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:30 AM

But, just because he believes interest rates are about to rise and putting away a few gold coins is a good idea, doesnít mean Grant is all doom and gloom. Grantís parting words were; "I think this will be a great world for our children and grandchildren."


:blink: :blink: :blink:

Huh? Talk about a non sequitur. I thought you was a BEAR, Jeem .... :mellow:

Link

He's most probably is a massive bear long term and doesn't see much hope for the next generation etc. But remember he's a US citizen living in a quasi Police-state AND has a big following so somebody's most probably threatened him with an IRS audit for the next 25 years if he doesn't 'tone things down a bit'.

OK, I admit the above is unlikey but at the same time probable as well.........

#11 Hiding Bear

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:40 AM

There is potentially a HUGE stealth add coming into the system today and tomorrow.

Don't look to the Fed's open market operations to find this add, all the Fed has to do is keep the current Repo activity flat to make it happen.....Why?

Everyone is aware that the 5 & 10 year Notes recently auctioned are to be setteled today. Those settlements together total $24B. BUT beginning two weeks ago the Treasury issued 14 day, 12 day, and 7 day Cash Management Bills totaling $41B, which are set to expire today.

As the Treasury issued each of these CMB's Uncle Al was kind enough to monitize them. One CMB, the 7 day of $9B was covered almost entirely by a Fed 8 day Repo of $8.25B.

Let's see.... $24B new Debt, Return of $41B, net add of $17B! All of which was funded by the Fed.....

That's only half the story, tomorrow we have settlement of 4, 13, and 26 wk Bills for a net reduction of $11B.

Unless the Fed drains agressively there will be a huge stealth add.

There is the other side of this coin though..... What has the Treasury been doing with all of this liquidity for the last two weeks, and how is the treasury suddenly coming up with a spare $28B? The published debt figure didn't bounce with these short term issuances the way you would expect.

We may also see the Fed adjusting its portfolio by doing coupon or bill passes in exchange for some pullback in Repos(but at the current rate for the 10 year, it would be suprising).

Interesting to watch actions in the next two days....

Some corporate tax payments are due today, which may help the Treasury some for a few days, but that will not prevent the borrowing limit being hit in about two weeks.

Adding that to the complications of Ivan, the Fed's and Treasury's policies over the next few weeks may be unusual. Its possible that the Treasury may do some sleath borrowing with another Federal agency or from federal retirement funds. Congress actually allows the later in emergencies.

#12 DrStool

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:42 AM

Are We There Yet?

No

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#13 DrStool

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 09:02 AM

Keyboard- I'm a little dense, so I am having trouble following the point you were trying to make. If the Treasury sold cash managment bills, they probably spent the proceeds within the two weeks, meaning this money probably came out of the banking system and went right back into it during the life of the bills, right? I do not see that as a drain on the system, per se, except for the first few days. So the leftover unspent cash going back to the system would not be not an add. The repo to purchase is would be an add, but only as long as it is rolled over. I think the issue is still whether the Fed is increasing its asset base, and we know that they are, at an incredible, and relativelycosntant rate over the past 6-7 months. They do it regardless of what the Treasury is doing. I don't see a connection between the Treasuries issuance of notes and bills, and the rate at which the Fed monetizes. They just do it.

As I discussed in yesterday's Feed report, the ponzi system in't putting out enough liquidity on its own, without the Feed, to stay flated. That's why they are pumping, and have to keep pumping. What will happen when the pumping stops, or doesn't work any more?

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#14 rog

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 09:09 AM

OPEC raises quota 1m brls/day

crude futures -$0.13

#15 thesun

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 09:14 AM

As the Treasury issued each of these CMB's Uncle Al was kind enough to monitize them.  One CMB, the 7 day of $9B was covered almost entirely by a Fed 8 day Repo of $8.25B.

Let's see.... $24B new Debt, Return of $41B, net add of $17B!  All of which was funded by the Fed..
That's only half the story, tomorrow we have settlement of 4, 13, and 26 wk Bills for a net reduction of $11B.

Unless the Fed drains agressively there will be a huge stealth add.

thesun never understands this big move dealing. all he knows is the he does a little buying of treasuries when the time is right and stops buying when the time is wrong.

at this time thesun is swimming in cash and more is being returned to him every month. life can very very hard :rolleyes:

anyway, it seems that the FED is printing up money out of no where and collecting interest on that money.

wish i was able to get on that train. seems to me that greensin just stealing money from taxes payers all day long.

thesun just does not understand this.

the longer i am around the less i understand.

glad i made my money when i know nothing.





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