DrStool Posted September 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 I am at my cousin's home in N Va DC burbs. Safe and sound, and waiting with trepidation. If this thing hits, it will ruin many lives, and create varying degrees of hardship for just about all of us. I may lose my home. My wife may lose her livelihood, and there will be many who lose both their homes and both jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 Many still without power from Frances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 9, 2004 Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 The 1926 hurricane that came up the center of the state never weakened becuause the outer feeder bands remained over water the whole trip up the peninsula. It killed people in North Florida too. In 1926, Florida was practically empty by today's standards. In 1930 the total population in Florida was less than 2 million; by 2000, the population was over 15 million, with nearly 18 million expected in 2010 and 21 million in 2025. The mania for coastal property has driven large-scale construction along all the U.S. coasts. Observations have been made for several decades about the escalating financial and social risk. But the building goes on. I worry about a "tragedy of the commons" scenario ... where on an individual basis, it's an attractive decision to live in Florida. But for 15 or 20 million people in aggregate, a natural disaster could spell risk of loss on an unaccceptable scale. All that said, I hope for the sake of those who live in Florida now, that Ivan does not prove to be the Point of Recognition about coastal overdevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted September 9, 2004 Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 I spent last weekend fleeing Frances to the west coast - Cape Corral to be exact. There is still loose debris from Charley all over the place over there - especially in Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte. Palm Beach is in a similar position. Roofs still unrepaired, structural damage to mobile homes and other thinly constucted buildings, trees down or partially down, broken branches hanging limply. At this point, more hurricane force winds and torrential rains will wreak havoc like we have never seen before. I have a knot in my stomach - I fear that what might be coming will hurt South Florida for a long, long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted September 9, 2004 Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 The 1926 hurricane that came up the center of the state never weakened becuause the outer feeder bands remained over water the whole trip up the peninsula. It killed people in North Florida too. In 1926, Florida was practically empty by today's standards. In 1930 the total population in Florida was less than 2 million; by 2000, the population was over 15 million, with nearly 18 million expected in 2010 and 21 million in 2025. The mania for coastal property has driven large-scale construction along all the U.S. coasts. Observations have been made for several decades about the escalating financial and social risk. But the building goes on. I worry about a "tragedy of the commons" scenario ... where on an individual basis, it's an attractive decision to live in Florida. But for 15 or 20 million people in aggregate, a natural disaster could spell risk of loss on an unaccceptable scale. All that said, I hope for the sake of those who live in Florida now, that Ivan does not prove to be the Point of Recognition about coastal overdevelopment. Check out John D. McDonald's Condominium for a hair-raising romp through that scenario. John D. set most of his books in Florida, but this one provided quite an education the first time I read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE IVAN...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2004 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL RECREATIONAL VEHICLES... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLAMINGO FRIDAY MORNING AT 700 AM... ...RESIDENTS THAT WISH TO LEAVE TODAY ARE ENCOURAGED TO DO SO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...REMEMBER THAT A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST...ABOUT 965 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...OR ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. IVAN IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...CAPABLE OF CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 160 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB...OR 27.17 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AS OF 900 AM...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN MADE FOR ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. OWNERS OF TRAVEL TRAILERS AND BOAT TRAILERS SHOULD ALSO REMOVE THEIR PROPERTY FROM THE KEYS AT THIS TIME. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR EVACUATION BEGINNING AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. A PHASED EVACUATION OF ALL RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLAMINGO MAY BE INITIATED TOMORROW. ALL RESIDENTS THAT WISH TO LEAVE THURSDAY ARE ENCOURAGED TO DO SO. THE TOLLS HAVE BEEN LIFTED ON CARD SOUND ROAD...AND ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS WILL CLOSE TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE SCHEDULED TO BE CLOSED FOR CLASSES ON FRIDAY. PLEASE REMAIN CALM...AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND YOUR LOCAL MUNICIPAL OFFICIALS. RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN THEIR PREPARATIONS TODAY...AND BE READY TO TAKE FURTHER ACTIONS IF ADVISED TO DO SO FROM MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT THE BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL BE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION TO ALLOW MOTOR VEHICLES TO PASS UNINTERRUPTED BEGINNING AT 700 AM FRIDAY. IF YOUR VESSEL REQUIRES THESE BRIDGES TO BE RAISED...YOUR VESSEL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PASS THROUGH THOSE CHANNELS AFTER 700 AM FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IVAN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threadbare Posted September 9, 2004 Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 A few years ago, I told someone that rising sea levels and wild coastal weather, due to global warming, would effect how real estate is advertized. Waterfront homes will be considered a liability. An unobstructed view, one that people mortgage their lives away for, has represented freedom, ironically--nothing between you and the deep blue sea. Turns out there is something between you and the view-- a perpetually riled Mother Nature and that's much worse than having your mother-in-law occupying the spare bedroom for a few months. Doc, I'll pray, chant, meditate, and light a candle for you, your family and all Floridians. That should just about cover all religions. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 They have shifted the center of the forecast track slightly west, coming in over Ft. Myers, but the entire state is again within the cone of greatest probability. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/...IF/091748W5.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 9, 2004 Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 Major Earthquake off Cayman Islands (6.1) http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/Map.../N_America.html Earthquake and then Ivan, cheez!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted September 9, 2004 Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 They have shifted the center of the forecast track slightly west, coming in over Ft. Myers, but the entire state is again within the cone of greatest probability. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/...IF/091748W5.gif Port Charlotte is again in the center of the bullseye. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 The west coast of Florida is Bush country. I wonder how this will affect the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 9, 2004 Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 The west coast of Florida is Bush country. I wonder how this will affect the election. Maybe some of the 'religious right' will deduce that God is very angry at the Bushes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 That's what I was thinking... But I am too upset and nervous to make jokes at this point. Oh hell, I may as well just sink into a black depression now. Why wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 Believe it or not, as I was driving north in FL last week, picked up a call in show in Orlando where a caller did call in and claim that Francis was Florida's punishment for not supporting Bush enough! It was on 540 AM I think around 10:30-11 AM last Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted September 9, 2004 Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 Doc - Just saw on MSNBC foredasters see two possible tracks: one hits the keys then heads to Atlantic. the other stays in the gulf and hits the panhandle but misses most of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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