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B4 the Bell Toozleday Aug 31, 2004


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#1 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 06:46 AM

Welcome to B4 the Bell. The realy nice thing about this place from a traders perspective is you have the miners teaching others how to mine. Apart from a few "suggestions" scattered here and there, no one is telling you where to mine, but how to do it safely. Perhaps best of all is the almost total lack of impromptu shovel salesmen naturally excepting our most gracious host, Doctor Stool. The shovels the Doc offers are of the highest quality yet mysteriously priced far below other shovels of much lesser quality. In addition the shovels are not only useful for mining but can also be employed for gardening, ditch digging and for just leaning on while you ponder the meaning of life. The only way you can get one of these "shovels" is to subscribe to the Anals. Don't go mining without one.

A quick review of yesterday's thread. McCain. Lost all faith in that bozo when he folded during the 2000 campaign and stuck his nose up Shrub's ass. Someone got to him and has never let go.

Bush oxen moron. Check.

Ron Paul for Prez. Check. But only as a true independent. As a Republican he's useless and subject to the McCain nut vice.

Rummy censured. Check. Too late to oust him or any of the key neocon baboons, so keep them all in the non-public cages till the election is thrown.

Diebold's voting machines will gain the ability to learn and elect a Cray supercomputer as President, recognizing that humans are too stupid to govern themselves.

Ass & Pee Futures demonstrate the clasic 3 AM Boner and 5AM Crown pattern. Please ask The End or Stained Jeans about this classic set-up :lol:
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Conversely the Nazquack is displaying a 3AM Crown and 5AM Boner pattern.
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Uncle Bucky the long view. Yeah he got real sick for a while, but lately he's stabilized. IMO I wouldn't be selecting a casket for a while. For sure he will die one day, but his longevity may be the biggest surprise for the dollar bears. I think he's stuck in a range of 85 - 90 while all of the other little yapping currencies play catch up. Gold is the only reliable ruler. Using one fiat currency to measure another is futile.
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Uncle Earl on the other hand is shaking off some of the speculators, but for the short term I don't think he'll fall below about $40 on fundamentals. Thank God the Iraq war brought oil into line. :P If my guess about the future global economic picture is even half right, I think there's significant downside risk in the intermediate, though long term oil must go higher unless of course they choose to employ the same manipulations they have successfully deployed for the PMs for the last decade.
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Market Open High Low Last Change Time
TYU4 Sep 2004 112 27/32 113 03/32 112 27/32 113 03/32 0 set 14:59
TYZ4 Dec 2004 111 21/32 111 29/32 111 20/32 111 28/32 0 set 14:59
TYH5 Mar 2005 110 24/32 110 31/32 110 24/32 110 31/32 0 set 14:59
TYM5 Jun 2005 109 09/32 109 16/32 109 09/32 109 21/32
This is a price chart so yields are inverse. Looks to me like we want to revist the highs achieved in the early part of the year. I think the yield on the 10s will stay within the 4% - 5% range for the next 6 months plus. Unless they drop well below the 4% barrier again the real estate market is about done, dying from exhaustion of the last subprime zero down interst only ARM buyer complicated by stratospheric prices which begin to turn down in response to declining volume.
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#2 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 07:03 AM

Ofrfsetting Mexico's (Vincente Fox's I'm gonna save Shrub) miracle announcement of a 54 billion barrel find (about 648 days of global oil supply at today's rate) is this Nova Soctia disappointment:

CALGARY - Nova Scotia's struggling offshore energy sector suffered a potential death blow yesterday with the closure of the only remaining well slated to be drilled by a major oil company.

Marathon Canada Petroleum ULC said its $80-million exploratory well will be "permanently plugged and abandoned" after it failed to find oil, and though the company holds other licences in the area, it has no plans for further drilling.

The Crimson well was the last of the exploration wells being drilled or planned for the province's offshore after a major project from ExxonMobil came up empty two weeks ago. No other wells have been announced.

The failure of the Marathon well, located in the deep water beyond the Scotian Shelf, is a major disappointment to believers in Nova Scotia's energy potential and to a province that has struggled to fashion itself as a burgeoning energy frontier.

In the last four years, major oil companies, from Calgary-based EnCana Corp. to Texas-based ExxonMobil, have spent more than $1.2-billion pursuing costly drilling programs in the Atlantic Ocean off Nova Scotia.


East coast oil dream runs dry

In addition the proposed new drilling in Alaska would provide the US needs for about 15 days.

People seem to foget that with each new discovery thousands of older fields are slowing or simply being exhausted. Like gamblers the oil industry only touts the winners and ignores the continuing losses that far exceed their winnings.

#3 Hiding Bear

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 07:04 AM

Pop goes the housing bubble -

Supply of Houses Is Finally Rising In Parts of U.S.
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
August 31, 2004

The number of houses on the market is finally rising in some parts of the U.S. where shortages have led to soaring prices.

The new supply should help soften price increases, and some economists say it may eventually bring prices down in some places where they have risen at double-digit rates in the past few years.

"There's going to be a day of reckoning," said Edward E. Leamer, an economist at the University of California, Los Angeles. "The question is how that reckoning is going to occur."

Any reckoning probably will be gradual. Unlike stocks, the general level of home prices couldn't plunge 20% or 30% in a few days. Many homeowners would refuse to sell if they couldn't get something near their target price, so it could take years for the market to adjust to a new supply-demand reality. Because local conditions vary, prices may continue to rise in some cities while falling in others.

Rising supplies are particularly notable in California, where the median home price has shot up 21% in the past year to $463,540. The California Association of Realtors says the inventory of previously occupied single-family homes in Orange County was enough to last 7.5 months at the current sales rate in July, up from 1.4 months in April. For the whole state, the supply stood at 3.3 months in July -- the first time since February 2003 that the inventory has topped three months.


http://online.wsj.co...e_whats_news_us

This story also confirms that in NJ more homes are available for sale, and there are less qualified buyers.

#4 Hiding Bear

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 07:13 AM

This is a price chart so yields are inverse. Looks to me like we want to revist the highs achieved in the early part of the year. I think the yield on the 10s will stay within the 4% - 5% range for the next 6 months plus. Unless they drop well below the 4% barrier again the real estate market is about done, dying from exhaustion of the last subprime zero down interst only ARM buyer complicated by stratospheric prices which begin to turn down in response to declining volume.

August has experienced very heavy, and probably concerted and coordinated, sleath purchases of US Treasuries by foreign central banks. If this is the best they can do to get the dollar and bond up, bulls probably don't want to see what happens if they just stop buying.

While I don't want to say any thing is impossible, because the central banks were successful briefly in March, the housing bubble must be nearer the end than we have ever seen before. It is not surprising that the Fed is finally showing signs of panic in its open market operations.

#5 HiHat

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 07:20 AM

Human psychology has the cycle best exemplified by imaging a
red party dress to a sack-cloth and ashes...al gorerhythem.

The party has crested, and as per usual, the after feeling is,, Deflation.

The FED is a tool of Universal Mind..........it don't control it.

#6 machinehead

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 07:20 AM

A light-hearted moment at the neocon Nuremberg.

Posted Image
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#7 depends

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 07:59 AM

K index still high.
http://www.sec.noaa....ts/k-index.html
or
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html

May not be bullish. Francis, kali shaking. Restless I think.
Convention coverage great for naping and inducing sleep.

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#8 DrStool

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 08:16 AM

Cowering In Fear

Goldbugs Await The Turn

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#9 DrStool

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 08:19 AM

And Doc is cowering in fear watching the projected track of Frances. Currently plan to leave here on Thursday.

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#10 Hiding Bear

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 08:52 AM

Some background on the Suncor oil sands project that B4 frequently talks about:

The geologists, roughnecks and recently minted M.B.A.'s being ferried north by the Suncor jet are all focused on one objective: an unconventional approach to producing oil by sucking the viscous tar out of the sandy soil around Fort McMurray, a city of 50,000 where the temperature can dip to 40 degrees below zero in the winter.

It is not easy and it is not cheap, and through most of the 1980's and 1990's, it was not attractive to pursue, because there was plenty of crude oil available from more convenient sources and the market price was too low to reward large-scale tar sands development.


Mr. Sandman, Bring Me Some Oil

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 08:55 AM

K index still high.
http://www.sec.noaa....ts/k-index.html
or
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html

May not be bullish. Francis, kali shaking. Restless I think.
Convention coverage great for naping and inducing sleep.

Hmmm....I'm packing up my possessions to put them in my car - which I'm planning to leave in the concrete parking structure while I fly to San Diego to evacuate Fort Lauderdale in advance of Hurricane Frances, only to fly into a state that's starting to experience pre eartquake rumblings.

I FEEL LIKE ALAN GREENSPAN!

Hey Doc...

Looks like your safest bet might actually be to head for Naples or the Keys.
Going north would be a parking lot. Be safe!

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 09:05 AM

And Doc is cowering in fear watching the projected track of Frances. Currently plan to leave here on Thursday.

Good idea Doc.......Personally, I wouldn't go to Atlanta but head more westerly...
Mobile, Birmingham. IOW, stay out of the easterly curve of the track. Safe journey.

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 09:09 AM

K index still high.
http://www.sec.noaa....ts/k-index.html
or
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html

May not be bullish.  Francis, kali shaking. Restless I think.
Convention coverage great for naping and inducing sleep.

Hmmm....I'm packing up my possessions to put them in my car - which I'm planning to leave in the concrete parking structure while I fly to San Diego to evacuate Fort Lauderdale in advance of Hurricane Frances, only to fly into a state that's starting to experience pre eartquake rumblings.

I FEEL LIKE ALAN GREENSPAN!

Hey Doc...

Looks like your safest bet might actually be to head for Naples or the Keys.
Going north would be a parking lot. Be safe!

Leave the BLOW and go to the SHAKEY! :P

#14

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 09:16 AM

Plunger.........
Check the Eastern Pacific..... Not only THS Shakey but the Stormey , too?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/

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Posted 31 August 2004 - 09:21 AM

I haven't seen much mention of the similarities of LBJ's war on Vietnam/Communism and the bushman's war on Iraq/Terrorism and the common energy shortage factor. Didn't LBJ's massive spending on both domestic and war areas induce a stock market bull? Are the central planners going back to the same old playbook and expecting the same result? How long did it take for LBJ's spending to show up as inflation? My memory is failing me.





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