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B4 The Bell Thursday August 26th


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#16 HiHat

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 09:55 AM

The VIBE i'm getting from reading and seeing various figures thrown around
the last few days.........concern..........derivatives........i more convinced
then ever, that we wake up to a Uri Gellar morning one of these days.....as in

"there is no spoon"....................."there is NO money".

#17 orvack

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:02 AM

The US Peso.

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  • USD_Aug26.jpg


#18

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:03 AM

Same old same old with gold. Jam it up and then slap it down. You would think that these guys could come up with something new already.

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:06 AM

Despite 20 separate attacks on Iraq's southern oil pipeline, oil flows remain uninterrupted.

Makes total sense to me.

expect an oil spike when the truth spills out

Article in the NY times today shows dramatic reversal regarding Global Warming by the Bush administration...now they claim it is clearly caused by carbon emissions from power plants and autos.

Desparate men. Cheney comes out of the closet two days ago in favor of gay marriage and today the Bush Regime is suddenly pro-environment.

Wolves in sheeps clothing.

#20 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:08 AM

I only read this crap to see what page the matrix is on. From todays WSJ " New Home sales slid 6.4% last month as higher mgt rates appear to be cooling hte mkt" Hello, month over month there was virtuall no change in mgt rates, in fact I think they may have fallen a tad.

Exactly. The combination of speculative mania and the temporary high raw material costs have pushed the prices beyond the reach of the masses even when aided by zero down, interest only ARMs. In other words the barrel is empty. Another month or two of this and the pricing should begin a viscious spiral down as the flippers discover that home prices can go both ways. IMO we are well past the point where even a severe decline in rates can reignite the housing market. In addition with the home builders wearing their rosiest super dark shades have continued to blunder on with the assumption that everyone in America will own at least three new houses. The extrapolation of the housing boom has been as severe and stupid as the extrapolation for tech companies was in 1999.

I think it was Gordon over on Financial Sense I was reading this morning who predicted that 20% of the homes would be vacant and that a similar amount of houses would become multi-generational or said another way the kids will be moving back in or the now bankrupt boomers will be moving in with the kids. He might be a bit optimistic given the number of housing units the last 10 years have produced. Too often people forget to include rentals which are already in a steady decline. When I look around my market, I think there has been about 30 years worth of construction done in just the last 5 years and it is not concentrated solely in single family, but has been at least as rampant in commercial, retail and multi-family. I'm pretty sure of one thing, 90% of these new mortgage/real estate ventures won't be in business in a few years, and they've been building fancy new facilites like mad around here.

IMO the typical non-maniacal housing market may fall as much as 50% or more. Mania markets could fall further. I don't think buying anything right now is a good investment no matter how attractive it may appear to someone coming form a mania market to a relatively subdued market. This won't be your fathers real estate bust limited to a few locales. It will be global.

I'm thinking 20 cents on the dollar is good time to start snooping around and find out just how much granite countertop and marble floor and land you can buy for $30,000 cash.

#21 HiHat

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:12 AM

$peso...........should be..........$PISSO

#22 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:15 AM

Downgrade sure scared the COF holders
Off .9% where it was early yesterday
Probably another stupid "buying opportunity"
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#23 Metamucil

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:17 AM

Services economy run amok:

The three largest importers:
WMT 471,600 TEU's
HD 267,100
TGT 208,000

The three largest exporters:
American Chung Nam inc 187,500 TEU's
Weyerhaeuser 102,200
Du Pont 101,200

What business is American Chung Nam in, you ask? The very hightech, market leading industry of waste paper handling. That's right the great productivity miracle that brings in so many desperate investors from the rest of the world is anchored in waste paper. By the way most of wyerhauser imports are raw materials (whol logs) rather than finished goods.

Those importers.........retail. I see one HELL of a top here. Head-shoulders deluxe:
I'm short here.


Posted Image
"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#24 soup

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:19 AM

Yobob: Agree. However the band played on ( hgx is up today). Same ole crap, we know what the fundamentals suggest, yet we are constantly battling the central planners who will throw opm at these mkts in order to maintain an aura of stability. ( how is that for a run on sentence?)
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#25 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:20 AM

44 minutes for the +1000 tick today

matrix fully in control
Futures UP Check
Bonds Up Check
Dollar Up Check
Gold Down Check
Silver Down Check
Oil Down Check
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#26 soup

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:21 AM

In addition, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that lower int rates will NOT rescue housing. Of course one will have to battle the conventional wisdom. IN the short term more of the same, in the longer term conventional wisdom, will as always, be proven wrong.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#27 BumRush

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:21 AM

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The help-wanted advertising index fell one point in July from June, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The index was at 37 in July versus 38 the previous month and 38 in July 2003.

In a news release, the Conference Board said that in the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in six of the nine U.S. regions.

"Overall economic momentum is no longer firing on all cylinders," said Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein, "and hiring intentions this summer are suggestive that companies may not increase hiring until the economy regains more solid footing."

The Conference Board survey tracks help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major U.S. newspapers monthly. The volume of newspaper want-ads is one indication of demand for labor, although many employers also now advertise for help through on-line services.

-By Brian Blackstone, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2137; brian.blackstone@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 26, 2004 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)- - 10 00 AM EDT 08-26-04

#28 yellowfish

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:25 AM

Those importers.........retail. I see one HELL of a top here. Head-shoulders deluxe:
I'm short here.

Meta - Thanks for the input. Love your charts.
"No matter what happens, I will look back and smile" - Beardrech

#29 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:30 AM

Here comes the fight at the 50 day spoos
Absence of ballistic ticks so far

Best for later?
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

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Posted 26 August 2004 - 10:30 AM

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The help-wanted advertising index fell one point in July from June, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The index was at 37 in July versus 38 the previous month and 38 in July 2003.

In a news release, the Conference Board said that in the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in six of the nine U.S. regions.

"Overall economic momentum is no longer firing on all cylinders," said Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein, "and hiring intentions this summer are suggestive that companies may not increase hiring until the economy regains more solid footing."

The Conference Board survey tracks help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major U.S. newspapers monthly. The volume of newspaper want-ads is one indication of demand for labor, although many employers also now advertise for help through on-line services.

-By Brian Blackstone, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2137; brian.blackstone@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 26, 2004 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)- - 10 00 AM EDT 08-26-04

All designed to tank the Ten Year Yield...right on schedule, per the script.





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