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B4 The Bell Moonday August 23


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#256 Takachi

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 10:14 PM

Well since Iraq was brought up and this is supposed to be about the battle for "hearts and minds"-the Mehdi Army consists of schoolteachers, farmers, shoe makers etc. they are armed with light weapons plus mortars and Rpg's they are facing the best equipped, best armed troops in the world, they are facing Gunships and F-16's but they aren't quitting are they??  Now I am not endorsing these guys far from it but when people are that outgunned and won't quit there is definitely a disconnect between our version of freedom and theirs, these people are not the illiterate grunts of the VC nor are they idealogues they are simply saying "go home" and they appear ready to die for it!

The old rubric to never get in a land war in Asia was always thought to apply to China. If we win, they will just hate us more and if we lose they will be emboldened a thousand fold.

#257 brian4

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 10:22 PM

Hunter-thank you and takachi-good point-we never, ever learn! ;)

#258 Hypertiger

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 10:23 PM

If Gore was Prez that's all everyone would be crying about.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 10:32 PM

The New Great Game by Lutz Kleveman

Superb radio show.
Thanks Col.

You are welcome. Eye opening, isn't it?

#260 Butterfield 8

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 10:45 PM

Hyper - what form are you holding money in for the hyperinflation followed by deflation ? silver ? physical loonies ? plus food supplies, I expect. wondering the best survival strategy in each phase.

#261 lucid and confused

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 10:49 PM

Elite Bankers Now Pulling Plug On US Economy & Currency!

By Ret. Senator Tim Ferguson - Ferguson Report

Full story from the Federal Observer

And so what hope do we have?? Never before has it been more shockingly obvious that ignorance is bliss

#262 purdymouth

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 10:50 PM

http://www.pollingre...om/wh04misc.htm

voters believe Kerry earned the medals

perhaps this is what got the little dictator to shut the f*ck up today?

#263 depends

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 10:59 PM

Eye opening, isn't it?

Well after reading 'The Haj' and listening to that radio
show I understand better that the US policy
in the middle east totally ignores the Arab mindset
because it is only about control of the oil - which,
of course, is now out of control. There are better
ways to deal with people, but the cartel wouldn't
benefit from civil relations. Too late now I suppose.

Good luck to you in your travels Brian!

I don't care for the coal stocks. Too extended- but
they may go to the moon, who knows. If I were to long one it
might be ACI at 33.50 if it can get there - 50ma cross up.

I am short some oils in the money now.

#264 depends

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 11:11 PM

Hey, Not all the troops have a tough time in Iraq:

'Getting a fair number of reports concerning senior officers abusing the system. Here is just one: “Ask Hack to do all he can to ensure accountability. He needs to "follow the money" over here. $5B a month being spent, most wasted. Many perks and pay offs. Good deals for pals. He should ask his contacts in Baghdad about the 33 Generals at Camp Victory, allegedly each with a lakeside villa.” Got similar reports about slippery deals going on in Iraq, Oman and Kuwait. $100K plus SUVs for VIPS etc'

Check in with Hack - scroll down to 'System'

http://www.sftt.org/

#265 purdymouth

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 11:28 PM

http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk/
"Large plumes of thick, black smoke have been seen rising close to a holy Shia shrine in the city of Najaf where militia fighters are holed up."
The hegemon imposing his authority...but one is reminded of the incident during the Vietnam war when General Curtis Le May presented his strategy of a six week bombing campaign, which he said would force the Viet Cong to the negotiating table, and someone asked what if they didn't come - "then we will bomb for another four weeks," he said, "and then they will surely come." Needless to say, the US withdrew from Vietnam with all of its war aims unachieved.
http://news.bbc.co.u...ast/3589750.stm

---------------

consider the source... but interesting, no?

http://www.tehrantim...&Cat=14&Num=001

Iraqi interim government Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has threatened to hand in his resignation to Iraqi interim President Ghazi Ajil al-Yawer if the crisis in Najaf is not resolved soon.

Allawi's threat to resign complicates the situation in Iraq and could lead to civil war and the division of the country.

---------------

Witnesses: U.S. Warplanes Bomb Fallujah
http://www.guardian....4446019,00.html

#266 traderfromhell

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 11:33 PM


One of our former stoolies (jrmfl) is projecting a short-lived hyperinflation during the second half of 2005, as the pool operators' frantic flailing sends this process parabolic ... and then burns itself out, as every hyperinflation does.

Even though I'm in the deflation camp, I do get that this all ends ugly when the cb's stop buying treasuries and hyperinflation ensues briefly. Then everything crashes to earth in a deflationary death spiral. Right?

But what I don't get is, what will make them stop buying treasuries? What's their line in the sand, pain threshold? When does buying more treasuries inflict more pain on Japan than if they wouldn't? Has anyone done the math and figured this out? It's possible we are in a blowoff that lasts for years no?

The willingness and ability of the CBs to expand their respective monetary bases can only be guessed at right now. With present day super-cooled computers and high speed internet, a hyperinflationary crack up boom will probably be shorter in time than historical examples. It's possible it could all be over in a year or two.

Actions taken by CBs also do have an effect on the 'real world'. Personal savings of foreign countries, which are effectively transferred to the US due to Treasury purchases, reduce the savings pool in those countries. Lower savings could lead to higher interest rates and/or a decline in investment there. Japan has been mired for some time dealing with the after effects of a real estate bubble and savings leaving the country - forcibly through the BOJ/MOF.


BTW - Where is jrmfl posting? :huh:

jrmfl is over at investors exchange Yahoo boards. Go for it.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#267 beardrech

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 11:41 PM

Looks like Greenspin's patch is still soft: WalMart says Aug same store sales up only 0-2% vs their (previously reduced) est of 2-4%.  Haven't they been saying weekly sales were "on plan"?  I guess their plan included a late Aug surge that didn't happen.

Up 0% to 2%???

What is up about 0%?

This guidance range is going to cause an earthquake. WMT is trending into negative growth and the implications will send shock waves through the market.

They are acknowledging that zero-growth is in their guidance range...incredible!

No, no, no, no, no.

This can't be happening.

The NYT just came out with an article that higher oil prices were bullish for the economy.

Several economists said so.

The consumer is "resilient" and I expect, given their clientele, WMT sales to be immune from higher fuel prices.

:P

Sphinxter
Did you ever watch one of those Rodeos on TV? Do you remeber the cowboysitting on the tightly penned Brahma Bull.tense .tightening his hold on the strap for what is to become the thrilling ride thathe lives for??

Then,of a sudden,the gates open and before you know it hes head over heels in the air falling downward,piledriving headlong into the dirt--momentarily stunned he lies in the dirt; the bull crazed at the indignity of having had this moronic cowboy on his naked back, the spongio-disformed bull in full rage lowers his horns, and just as he's about to fullfill the spectators deepest wish of seeing this meat industry constable get a horn stuck into his belly button two wet-blanketing clowns leap out and stop the fun

But evry once in awhile Sphinx,the clowns make a mistep and, metaphorically, illustrate whats about to happen to bull worshippers

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r:

#268 traderfromhell

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 11:41 PM

Ed Koch comes out for Bush :shocked

kerry no stomach for fighting terrorist :lol:  no stool :P

koch has been for bush for some time. he's not your father's koch. for him life now comes down to supporting Israel no matter what they do, no other issues matter.

Sad but true.
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#269 beardrech

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Posted 23 August 2004 - 11:55 PM

my 2 cents in the great tire debate: I think Plunger has made some good points, and agree with his comments this weekend that replacement tire purchases are easy to delay when money is tight. But i also agree that if you're going to short the tire makers based on this funnymental argument, it's important to take into account the probable shift from new car tire sales to replacement sales (I don't think there's disagreement on this point though). From a trading perspective, I mentined this weekend I was watching GT, but agree with windy that it's too early to short, it's still in an uptrend. Sorry to be so agreeable. :lol:

I would think that the companies devoted to making retreads would be logical candidates for investmernt--like ,if it still exists,Bandang(sp?) and other companies like it-

Also do you remeber years ago when we were importing rubber sandal floppies from japan that they made out of used tires--

I think this time around some genius will learn how to wrap these around a wheel rim enabling leisure loving americans to go out for a very economical casual ride

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: :cry: What goes around comes around

#270 Hiding Bear

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Posted 24 August 2004 - 12:14 AM


One of our former stoolies (jrmfl) is projecting a short-lived hyperinflation during the second half of 2005, as the pool operators' frantic flailing sends this process parabolic ... and then burns itself out, as every hyperinflation does.

Even though I'm in the deflation camp, I do get that this all ends ugly when the cb's stop buying treasuries and hyperinflation ensues briefly. Then everything crashes to earth in a deflationary death spiral. Right?

But what I don't get is, what will make them stop buying treasuries? What's their line in the sand, pain threshold? When does buying more treasuries inflict more pain on Japan than if they wouldn't? Has anyone done the math and figured this out? It's possible we are in a blowoff that lasts for years no?

The willingness and ability of the CBs to expand their respective monetary bases can only be guessed at right now. With present day super-cooled computers and high speed internet, a hyperinflationary crack up boom will probably be shorter in time than historical examples. It's possible it could all be over in a year or two.

Actions taken by CBs also do have an effect on the 'real world'. Personal savings of foreign countries, which are effectively transferred to the US due to Treasury purchases, reduce the savings pool in those countries. Lower savings could lead to higher interest rates and/or a decline in investment there. Japan has been mired for some time dealing with the after effects of a real estate bubble and savings leaving the country - forcibly through the BOJ/MOF.


BTW - Where is jrmfl posting? :huh:

jrmfl is over at investors exchange Yahoo boards. Go for it.

Tanks but are you referring me to the investor-sex-change or the investors-exchange discussion board? :D :P :o





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