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for this year." - Hempfest participant
Oh man, too pad my computer chair isn't a potty, cause, that made me laugh so hard, I peed.
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B4 The Bell Weak-end Den, August 21-22
234 replies to this topic
Posted 21 August 2004 - 02:11 PM
Oh man, too pad my computer chair isn't a potty, cause, that made me laugh so hard, I peed.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 02:20 PM
Pilot Steve Leslie, laid off from Canada 3000 airline after it folded, has written a second installment about his life as an expat air pilot in Argentina. (The first article is linked at the bottom of the second one.)
Postcards from the End of the Earth
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Posted 21 August 2004 - 03:37 PM
Seen from afar this week (and fortunately from a mostly cash position), the equity markets seemed to be in Surfing Safari mode: the crest of the wave is seen (hourly or minute cycles in oil) , and the slope is riden. As oil peaks, the momo guys put on their bull caps and get a lift to shore on oil price retracements.
The media was perfect - every announcement I heard on the radio was "oil has come off it's peak". Pointless to interject that one need not be on the peak to still be in trouble on the mountain. However, the spin had the intended effect, to force whatever counterparties trading in whatever market, to cover.
Money into oil - price of oil goes up. Money out of oil - price of equities goes up. Breathe in. Breathe out.
Once the bots identified a tradeable pattern, it didn't take a rocket scientist to see how it could perpetuate itself. This will continue until...it doesn't. Scam week had a lot to do with it; looking at the confluence of fibs on Doc's charts, it makes perfect sense as well. If the price oil drops out of the box Monday, I would actually expect equities to do the same, until the pattern is uncoupled. My guess is this will be at oil 42-43 and SPX at 1088.
Unlike paper assets - and like silver - I fully expect the price of oil to continue to rise because there is actually a shortage of the physical commodity, and short supply is driving the price. Those who must have physical oil are paying for it, whatever the cost. Same with other energy materials (look at uranium CCJ stock the past 2 weeks) and nat gas.
The consumer hasn't paid for it. Yet. IMHO, because Cheney, Inc. are terrified that the next oil shock will lose them the White House. Rightly so. If they can play chicken with the paper oil bulls long enough, the price may return "naturally" to more acceptable levels. Which the media has now primed to public to accept.
The buffer into which the profit margins have been absorbed is exhausted, IMHO. Like B4 said, expect huge, sudden increases in oil prices. This is what happens when markets are no allowed to work au natural. Demand and supply find an equilibrium price..when markets are controlled, this dynamic is not allowed to function. Demand is not affected, because price has not changed. Price is largely controlled, short term, by paper markets, which the govt. manipulates. Supply decline is the inevitable result. Once exogenous market controls are lifted, there is a sudden shock when prices need to re-equilibrate in the face of a steep drop in supply, which will only be corrected at higher prices.
Its lose-lose for the incumbents. They see it, but they don't see that their timing is off.
Destiny waits for no man.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 03:46 PM
Doc is on target again:
Those central banks seem to unfailingly know when to step up Treasury purchases, as they did in large quantities these last two weeks. Remember those central banks were behind the sudden drop in long term interest rates in March - which created a mini-bubbble in home refinancings and a temporary jump in the money supply. There are no indications that foreign central banks will go to extremes again now - mainly because the US$ is relatively stable and not in immeadiate need of strong support. Of course that could change.
The after-effects of the first quarter monetary expansion by foreign central banks still lingers - inflation is spreading.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 03:56 PM
Outside of a few excellent and out of place guests, Bloomberg Radio basically has anal cyst following anal cyst saying that high oil prices don't matter much to the economy. Perhaps they should check out the early 2005 futures prices of energy products for this winter, compare them to actual prices last winter, and re-evaluate their position.
Not only is there a change in ocean patterns like B4 mentioned, but the solar cycle is reaching a low point this winter - so it looks like a cooler than normal winter.
Later this year, the Fed will attempt to monetize the oil price increase. Whether they succeed at this is not certain, but more likely than not. Earlier this year the Fed stated, but most have forgotten, that it accepts the oil price rise and some higher levels of inflation.
If not, be prepared for a faster downturn in the economy this winter.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 03:58 PM
B4, Dharmaeye & yes TB (our resident socialst )-
very good chance im headed your way once again sometime in next 2 weeks.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 04:23 PM
$50.- a Barrel-Hell it will blow right thru that number....From todays Vancouver Sun-Lead Business section article....Headline-"Oil could top $80.- @ Barrel, anal cysts warn.....Crude Oil prices could reach $80.- @ Barrel next year if a "major" disruption occurs to Exports from one of the World's largest producers, industry research group Institut Francais du Petrole says." "It's a forecast echoed by James Williams of WTRG Economics, Oil anal cysts based in London....Williams said friday that disruptions in even a single oil-producing country could be devastating because there is so little excess capacity worldwide-only about 1 to 2 percent." The article is very BEARISH on the worldwide supply of crude...."At $80-@ Barrel World economic growth would be immediately affected. Inflation would at the least DOUBLE and Financial Markets would plunge"..IFP said - so well the Idiot Prince and Chainknee make light of the Oil hike and the American press believing the spin chant "it won't last"..the rest of the world says it well might!
Posted 21 August 2004 - 04:41 PM
Homeland Security would be better off serving it's citizens by passing a law that would make it illegal to talk on a hand held cellphone while driving. It certainly would make it a safer place for all of us.
Love it, USA mens basketball team lost, again.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 05:04 PM
Homeland Insecurity At The Pentagon...
I received a phone call earlier today from a friend of mine who was driving by the Pentagon. She said:
"You can't believe it, there are Humvees parked everywhere with their flashers going and guys standing around with machine guns...it's just ridiculous...it's like they think the can boost consumer confidence with this show of force or something...
But the really funny thing was that I just stopped five feet from one of these Humvees to ask the guy in the drivers seat for some directions and he was TOTALLY SOUND ASLEEP SAWING LOGS WITH HIS MACHINE GUN IN HIS HANDS. I couldn't believe it...I'm five feet away from this guy yelling excuse me...EXCUSE ME...like five times and he never even wakes up...so I drive on ahead to the next Humvee to ask directions, and I tell that guy that his buddy back there is sound asleep, and he says...what's he look like...and she says: He's a huge black guy...to which the guy responds: Oh yeah, he sleeps all the time."
Given how many minders there are evesdropping on this board, I'd think it's safe to say that a large black man in a Humvee on Pentagon Security detail is about to get the axe.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 05:08 PM
I don't believe we can know anything at all, simply as a function of headlines or the lack thereof. Remember, it takes more than "the grainy videotape, with almost unintelligible sound track" to produce a headline; it also takes a media organization to report on it. All of the major, and almost all of the minor, media organizations are fully owned by the same corpses that fully own the U.S. government. We live under a wealth-based, corporate oligarchy (i.e. Plutocracy). I think this is plain as day. If the U.S. government decides that no attacks in the U.S. are to get reported, even when claims are submitted, then they won't get reported, at least by U.S. media.That's the first thing I thought when I heard about this incident.
At the same time, I think somebody would report any claims of credit, if these were attacks. Al-Jezeera, in some instances, may be bought off. Who knows. Myself, I still won't base my opinions at all on what is and is not reality based on media reports, or the lack of media reports -- on any subject.
Your thought that all these "accidents" are attacks for which the attacker is not taking credit is also plausible. The problem I have with the accident hypothesis is the high number of these "accidents" over the last year or two, after going decades without any such "accidents." Why the sudden outbreak? Is it the "Y2K problem" asserting itself 3-4 years after the fact? Come on.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 05:13 PM
Fascism will replace a free press with propaganda.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 05:23 PM
That's exactly it.
Unfortunately, too many of us who don't watch the idiot box also don't vote (includes me on both counts). If we're going to change things Constitutionally, the rest of us are going to have to start voting. To do this, of course, we have to have candidates worth voting for.
We need some sort of "live and let live" party. The Libertarian Party (U.S.) tries to claim this mantle. Unfortunately, for several reasons, they are completely full of shit and will never appeal to more than a handful of rAndroids and Repukes who want their coke habits legalized. Despite its name, the Libertarian Party is not libertarian, for reasons I have posted about previously.
Lets start a party that's really libertarian. I vote for Hypertiger. I'll also vote for Yobob, if the majority of sane, awake, ethical, thinking people wish for something farther to the "right," as long as its genuinely libertarian.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 05:26 PM
Because of this reality, I'm afraid to even jaywalk.
Posted 21 August 2004 - 05:28 PM
Mark my words...this issue will be the downfall of Bush. There will be an investigation and the facts of how this group of Veterans was brought together and compelled to lie about Kerry's war record for the sake of re-electing Bush is going to disgust everyone. The odds are VERY HIGH that one of these guys is going to crack under pressure and admit that long time Bush cronies put them up to it.
A Guardsman who avoided combat attacking a decorated war veteran IS NOT going to be well received AT ALL. Bush's silence on this matter is evidence enough. What a tone deaf idiot.
CHICAGO A Chicago Tribune editor who served with Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry during the Vietnam War has broken his silence to denounce attacks on Kerry's war record.
William Rood says in the Tribune's editions tomorrow that Kerry's critics are telling untrue stories about his actions during the war. Rood commanded a swift boat during the 1969 mission that resulted in Kerry's Silver Star.
The metropolitan desk editor said Kerry's tactics in that mission garnered praise from commanding officers.
Rood says Kerry contacted him asking him to tell the truth about the incident, but that's not why he came forward. He says he is telling his story now because allegations made by the anti-Kerry group Swift Boat Veterans for Truth unfairly cast doubt on all those who served in that mission.
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