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B4 The Bell Fry day 8/20/04


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#226 Hypertiger

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 06:26 PM

Although we have seasons...people are always shocked when they change...

We are in the downward slope of the sunspot cycle...on the way up the planet heats up and on the way down it cools...

The extremes are at the transition points...we are heading into the coolest part currently that is why the last few years were so hot...radiation as the Earth cooled.

the coldest part is where the transition from cold to hot is...a few years away.

There is some other funny stuff happening but the solar cycle is still functioning as far as I can tell...

The peak was in 2000 and Calgary had a high of 70 F on Dec 24...

This year I saw trees that were turning in July and there are dry leaves everywhere...

So we could easily be heading into Ice planet Hoth mode.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#227 The End

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 06:32 PM

Regarding the Kerry Veteran Smear Campaign:

A series of interviews and a review of documents show a web of connections to the Bush family, high-profile Texas political figures and President Bush's chief political aide, Karl Rove.

Records show that the group received the bulk of its initial financing from two men with ties to the president and his family - one a longtime political associate of Mr. Rove's, the other a trustee of the foundation for Mr. Bush's father's presidential library. A Texas publicist who once helped prepare Mr. Bush's father for his debate when he was running for vice president provided them with strategic advice. And the group's television commercial was produced by the same team that made the devastating ad mocking Michael S. Dukakis in an oversized tank helmet when he and Mr. Bush's father faced off in the 1988 presidential election.

Several of those now declaring Mr. Kerry "unfit" had lavished praise on him, some as recently as last year.

In an unpublished interview in March 2003 with Mr. Kerry's authorized biographer, Douglas Brinkley, provided by Mr. Brinkley to The New York Times, Roy F. Hoffmann, a retired rear admiral and a leader of the group, allowed that he had disagreed with Mr. Kerry's antiwar positions but said, "I am not going to say anything negative about him." He added, "He's a good man."

In a profile of the candidate that ran in The Boston Globe in June 2003, Mr. Hoffmann approvingly recalled the actions that led to Mr. Kerry's Silver Star: "It took guts, and I admire that."

George Elliott, one of the Vietnam veterans in the group, flew from his home in Delaware to Boston in 1996 to stand up for Mr. Kerry during a tough re-election fight, declaring at a news conference that the action that won Mr. Kerry a Silver Star was "an act of courage." At that same event, Adrian L. Lonsdale, another Vietnam veteran now speaking out against Mr. Kerry, supported him with a statement about the "bravado and courage of the young officers that ran the Swift boats."

"Senator Kerry was no exception," Mr. Lonsdale told the reporters and cameras assembled at the Charlestown Navy Yard. "He was among the finest of those Swift boat drivers."

Those comments echoed the official record. In an evaluation of Mr. Kerry in 1969, Mr. Elliott, who was one of his commanders, ranked him as "not exceeded" in 11 categories, including moral courage, judgment and decisiveness, and "one of the top few" - the second-highest distinction - in the remaining five. In written comments, he called Mr. Kerry "unsurpassed," "beyond reproach" and "the acknowledged leader in his peer group."



This thing is going to come back to bite Bush...big time.  Is there anyone who does not believe that republican masterstrategists were behind the encouragement and funding of this group?  It's illegal.  Bush's strategy of attacking the honor of his enemies is disgusting.  It will cost him big time.

http://www.nytimes.c...gn/20swift.html

I will repeate. It is the market, it has been the market and always (whilst we have a market) shall be THE market. Bush will lose, not becuase of Fundy's. He will lose becuase the market went down during his first four years.

NO prez has EVER won re-election when the market fell in the first four years.

IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED. Bush will LOSE.

Edit- Kerry will be a one termer as well. Wanna bet?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#228 The End

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 06:36 PM

Why do I think of my favourite film "jaws" when I read my last post?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#229 RockLedge

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 06:38 PM

What the heck is it with this weather?

While the market may not seem bearish,
this weather is unuf to send any bear into its cave.

It is 64Deg here in Metro Detroit with light rain.
Normally, August is our hottest month--tank tops, shorts, swimming, etc.
Here I sit w/a long-sleaved sweatshirt and still cold.
Who needs A/C with weather like this?
Yet it seems criminal to turn on the furnace in August, so I add more quilts at night.

The plants in my gardens are acting like its already Fall, going into dormancy.
If that's the case, an early Fall, then God help us when winter hits.
The energy bills will be horrendous.

I'm thinking that there is far more than the ups and downs of the market that
we need to be concerned about.
The Planet that we count on for our existence is undergoing changes not yet known.
Is it about Global Warming? Are the weather patterns shifting?
If this is not just a temporary situation, how will people adjust/adapt?

Nature might just be giving us better clues than the market.

Watch the birds & fowl, they know. ;)

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 06:57 PM

A heating oil chart that's ready to rumble:

http://139.142.147.2...NX&ref_rate=180

Star Gas Partners (NYSE: SGU) is the largest heating oil distributor and ninth-largest propane distributor in the United States

#231 RockLedge

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 07:03 PM

A heating oil chart that's ready to rumble:

http://139.142.147.2...NX&ref_rate=180

Star Gas Partners (NYSE: SGU) is the largest heating oil distributor and ninth-largest propane distributor in the United States

looks like a good ole shanking before the rally.

NG contract for Dec.04 looks ready to bolt higher. All NG contracts closed green today.

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#232 depends

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 07:05 PM

SGU

Thanks for reminding me - I just got out before the big drop.
Will get back in at about 21.12 if it gets there.

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 07:08 PM

What the heck is it with this weather?

Coldest winter on record coming up.

The Hudson Bay Low arrived early this year.

Weather in California has already cooled 6 weeks early.

Watch Heating Oil and NatGas explode to new highs in September.............

Thanks, wndysrf!

My psychic, intuitive and Nature inputs need validation from other sources.
:rolleyes: :P

As I ponder where on the Planet Earth I would be safest, most secure, and
able to sustain the life in my body with the resources I have available
(crossed fingers),
I study the potential problems of any given area. Tornados? Hurricanes?
Volcanic eruptions? Earthquakes? Civil Disorder?
Lack of water, lack of fertile land to grow food, lack of clean air? etc.
My biggest concern is total failure of the Gov't to provide my fixed income
pension benefits, hospitalization, and to ensure the safety of my Thrift Savings
Plan (TSP) deposits (like your 401k).

Regardless of all these considerations, no matter where on Earth you happen
to be, when the energy (electricity) stops, humanity is dead on arrival.
I suspect that the Amish, the Menonites, the 7th Day Adventists, and what we
call primitive peoples who live off the land will endure, but society as we now
enjoy/know it will not. And please remember that there is a multitude of animals
and other creatures out there that also expect to be fed. (On us? :shocked )

While I am a very positive thinking person and try to maximize the potentials of
any situation, I am also cold-blooded enough to envision the worst outcomes.
I am also a scientist and constantly seeking new information, new answers to
questions and theories, while striving to keep my little butt out of trouble. :lol:

Like Hoodwinked, I don't like what I see ahead, but, also like him, I refuse to become depressed about it. I will do my best to contribute to the positive
inclinations of humanity as I can. If there is a God that listens to us, that weighs
the pleadings of humankind, then collectively, we just gotta ask for the best.
If there is not a God of intervention, then we, collectively, still are responsible
for determining our fate.
The principles of Love, Understanding and Forgiveness are the best guidelines
that I can recommend.

And so with all the above considerations, what will I do?

Continue to contemplate my navel, and throw some more quilts on the bed.
(Secondary question: What besides quilts could keep me warm? hehehehe

:lol:

Sherlock

#234 machinehead

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 07:08 PM

One day soon, our government will suddenly run out of cash, unable to meet its payments, leaving the United States as bankrupt as any banana republic. We are far more vulnerable than most Americans realize. . . With a debt of $7.3 trillion, if interest rates were to hit the levels we saw 20 years ago, it would take every nickel collected in income taxes just to pay the interest on our existing debt. There would be no money left for defense, or homeland security, or education, or Social Security.

Gerald J. Swanson, America the Broke


This book has just been published -- maybe available through Doc's bookstore.

Mr. Swanson was interviewed on Bloomberg radio today. He mentioned that even during Mad Al's "one percent blowout sale," interest payments consumed 17% of the Federal budget. As they rise toward 3, 4, even 5%, the added interest cost goes into the hundreds of billions.

The U.S. is running a $400 billion-plus deficit now ... during an economic expansion ... with rock-bottom interest rates ... and with the true cost of the Afghan and Iraqi military adventures deferred into FY 2005.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that the deficit is going to blow through $500 billion next year ... maybe $600 billion if the economy weakens.

It REALLY IS going to go exponential one day.

I'd feel better if Swanson hadn't written a previous book called Bankruptcy 1995, though. We all know the USA Inc Hedge Fund is doomed. But timing is everything ... :(
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#235 NWD

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 07:41 PM

The End;

Kerry a one-termer?

You're assuming that, at that point, we're still having presidential elections.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/RL32471.pdf

#236 Hypertiger

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 07:42 PM

One day soon, our government will suddenly run out of cash, unable to meet its payments, leaving the United States as bankrupt as any banana republic. We are far more vulnerable than most Americans realize. . . With a debt of $7.3 trillion, if interest rates were to hit the levels we saw 20 years ago, it would take every nickel collected in income taxes just to pay the interest on our existing debt. There would be no money left for defense, or homeland security, or education, or Social Security.

Gerald J. Swanson, America the Broke


This book has just been published -- maybe available through Doc's bookstore.

Mr. Swanson was interviewed on Bloomberg radio today. He mentioned that even during Mad Al's "one percent blowout sale," interest payments consumed 17% of the Federal budget. As they rise toward 3, 4, even 5%, the added interest cost goes into the hundreds of billions.

The U.S. is running a $400 billion-plus deficit now ... during an economic expansion ... with rock-bottom interest rates ... and with the true cost of the Afghan and Iraqi military adventures deferred into FY 2005.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that the deficit is going to blow through $500 billion next year ... maybe $600 billion if the economy weakens.

It REALLY IS going to go exponential one day.

I'd feel better if Swanson hadn't written a previous book called Bankruptcy 1995, though. We all know the USA Inc Hedge Fund is doomed. But timing is everything ... :(

Yes to support the delusion you believe in the infinite point must be reached...It's inevitable.

Then the delusion will violently implode...

Now as to timing...No one gives a shit...As long as it implodes after you are dead and done milking society to support your own personal debt inflationary supported fantasy existance.

As to depression...Is seeing believeing? None of you seem to mind the enslavement of external sources of human capital to support the fantasy you are living now as long as you don't have to see it...Why would or does exposure to reality depress you?
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#237 wndysrf

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 07:47 PM

One day soon, our government will suddenly run out of cash, unable to meet its payments, leaving the United States as bankrupt as any banana republic. We are far more vulnerable than most Americans realize. . . With a debt of $7.3 trillion, if interest rates were to hit the levels we saw 20 years ago, it would take every nickel collected in income taxes just to pay the interest on our existing debt. There would be no money left for defense, or homeland security, or education, or Social Security.

Gerald J. Swanson, America the Broke


This book has just been published -- maybe available through Doc's bookstore.

Mr. Swanson was interviewed on Bloomberg radio today. He mentioned that even during Mad Al's "one percent blowout sale," interest payments consumed 17% of the Federal budget. As they rise toward 3, 4, even 5%, the added interest cost goes into the hundreds of billions.

The U.S. is running a $400 billion-plus deficit now ... during an economic expansion ... with rock-bottom interest rates ... and with the true cost of the Afghan and Iraqi military adventures deferred into FY 2005.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that the deficit is going to blow through $500 billion next year ... maybe $600 billion if the economy weakens.

It REALLY IS going to go exponential one day.

I'd feel better if Swanson hadn't written a previous book called Bankruptcy 1995, though. We all know the USA Inc Hedge Fund is doomed. But timing is everything ... :(

Wonder if the commods are already sniffing out a surprise jump in interest rates to get the Deficit Snowball rolling downhill, getting bigger and gaining speed.

All the mortgage lenders look bullish and ready to break out. Its just when a chart looks bullish when it unexpectedly breaks down, leaving the IBD Cup and Handle Pots and Pans Chasers in the dust.

So, we'll keep an eye on rates, and FRE, CFC, NCEN, etc.

Maybe Fukui will simply run out of gas and the T-Bones fall simply from his lack of participation.
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#238 brian4

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 07:53 PM

I posted early in the morning that an El Nino has been confirmed for this winter and that means cold Brudda, it has been a fair while since we had a El Nino winter and the last one wrought havoc across the globe. We have had La nina twice in the last 5 years and La nina has kept the east Coast relatively mild and the West Coast Stormy but mild. The last El Nino brought a winter storm to us that dumped over 6 ft of snow where I live at sea-level, so yes it looks like a dinger of a winter. ;)

#239 Guest_bullseatshitndie_*

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 08:00 PM

All the mortgage lenders look bullish and ready to break out. Its just when a chart looks bullish when it unexpectedly breaks down, leaving the IBD Cup and Handle Pots and Pans Chasers in the dust.

couldn't agree more. s&p banking index has that cup and handle look. expect it to failure miserably.

#240 The End

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 08:01 PM

The End;

Kerry a one-termer?

You're assuming that, at that point, we're still having presidential elections.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/RL32471.pdf

I did type whilst we have a market. We shall see.

Have a great weak-end all. I am off for the big apple to bid my parents a good trip on their move to Vegas.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters





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