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B4 The Bell Fry day 8/20/04


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#211 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 04:44 PM

Kudos to Doc
Nice work this last week.
Should of scared me more then it did.
Could of saved me a bundle.
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#212 NWD

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 04:46 PM

HyperTiger;

That is the event to which I was referring.

I view a reiteration of it here as possible, but far from a "lead pipe cinch."

Another, substantial possibility, it seems to me, is an abrupt collapse in real estate prices, coupled with a zero bid for mortgage-backeds, leading to destruction of all the institutions that hold them, in what some have referred to as a pattern of cascading cross-defaults.

I could be completely wrong about the economic mechanics of it, but I suspect that Big Trouble is arriving shortly.

If memory serves me correctly, the German financial authorities did not give Reichsmarks away gratuitously. Rather, they were creating them to sell in the foreign exchange market to fund war reparations. I can't from memory tell you where I read this.

I just remembered reading, also, somewhere, that they used this method to finance strike pay to workers who went out on strike in protest of the occupation of the Rhineland by the French army after the WWI armistice.

#213 Brown Suguaro

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 04:46 PM

Another crime spree at the Casino. Wheeeee....

1:45pm in Lake Havasu City. Temp. is 106 degrees, and I'm headed to the lake for a swim. You're all invited and we could hoist a few and celebrate "melt down" market day - or whatever. We'll think of something.

B.S.

#214 The End

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 05:01 PM

Still straddeled. Who ever said the stock market was price based in reality. I see a bit of down early next week and then up some more. As I said last week-end, Don't fade My guys. (Doc included).

Edit- This is not ment to be anything but fact. I don't mean to hurt my fellow stoolies with the above statement.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#215 Hypertiger

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 05:08 PM

HyperTiger;

That is the event to which I was referring.

I view a reiteration of it here as possible, but far from a "lead pipe cinch."

Another, substantial possibility, it seems to me, is an abrupt collapse in real estate prices, coupled with a zero bid for mortgage-backeds, leading to destruction of all the institutions that hold them, in what some have referred to as a pattern of cascading cross-defaults.

I could be completely wrong about the economic mechanics of it, but I suspect that Big Trouble is arriving shortly.

If memory serves me correctly, the German financial authorities did not give Reichsmarks away gratuitously. Rather, they were creating them to sell in the foreign exchange market to fund war reparations. I can't from memory tell you where I read this.

The Germans needed gold to pay...They had no ability to buy gold so tha plan was to print marks to buy Gold to pay the bill...

The newly printed marks came home to roost in Germany when the sellers of the Gold to Germany purchased German exports...Then when the Germans paid the Bill with the Gold the powers just sold the Gold back to them but it took more and more Marks to be printed each time...

It was a comedy.

The fractional reserve of the commercial fractional reserve banks was inflated allowing the Commercial banks to create monumental amounts of debt out of thin air...

Until prices were rising by the hour...eventually it became impossible to account...

By the time you could figure out how much something cost the price had risen.

The only solution was to stop the presses...When the presses that were supporting the debt inflation were shut down the debt inflationary self delusional bubble they were fueling hyperdeflated...Massive starvation and repression followed...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#216 The End

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 05:13 PM

The SOX. noticebly weak today but, did not hurt the potential boo-lish scenerio should it go and hold above the green line.

On an aside. Someone posted here that the market was down hard (+3%) the week after August expiration. I went back the last two years and did not see that result.

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NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#217 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 05:26 PM

Still straddeled. Who ever said the stock market was price based in reality. I see a bit of down early next week and then up some more. As I said last week-end, Don't fade My guys. (Doc included).

Edit- This is not ment to be anything but fact. I don't mean to hurt my fellow stoolies with the above statement.

Good advise
My bearish bias cost me hard earned profits this week
Fortunately stops limited the damage. When everything looks the worst how many times have we seen this weeks kind of action? 1060 was huge in retrospect and I should of respected it as I initially did. Its not easy being a bear trying to keep ones head above water in this unprecedented, pushed around, futures market.
A trader NEVER stops learning. Emotion and conviction are our number one enemy.
After many years of commitment I have a looong way to go but I am alive and still progressing. This game takes a lifetime to master.
Thanks to all for the contributions along the way. You just cant buy the stuff we see here everyday. Except of course the Doc, who is worth many multiples the price of subscription! <_<
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 05:33 PM

Great point Plunger
Thinking outside the box.
I have always believed the pension 10 sigma is the biggest problem facing America today. Seems as though we just got the warning shot across the bow. Many are truly frightened for their retirement as DB pension plans are not worth the paper there written on. As more realize they could be living in poverty come their retirement, the economy or whats left of it will implode. They can print all they want but when they start fighting fear you could offer negative interest rates and still few would spend.


These pensioners have lived good lives with paid vacations, health insurance, and envisioned a future like their parents before them, filled with monthly checks and the perks that come with being an AARPer on a pension. Visions of cruise vacations, seniors discounts, helping to put their grandchildren through college... the golden years without a care.

This new reality is shocking, and with the fear that results from this Sword of Damacles hanging over their heads - all of their dreams for the future are now being weighed against a sobering reality...that it could all be taken from them - and they are powerless to prevent it.

Not only won't their Government protect them, their own Government is a co-conspirator in the crime. Everytime you hear Alan Greenspan speak of the Miracle of Productivity, what he's really describing is corporate executive greed, and their ability to wring out every single expense from the cost side of the ledger...and the end of that slippery slope is elimination of the pension plans. After all, it's the only way to make next years numbers without the stock price falling...and nothing matters more than the stock price.

The Federal Pension Guarantee Fund is totally broke, and there is no other money to care for these soon to be poor pensioners. Greenspan is actually encouraging corporations to throw the workers under the bus for the sake of (the appearance of) a strong economy and strong markets, to go along with the strong President and the strong war on terror...add strong nauseum. It's all a strong lie - and he knows it's a lie...they all know it.

These are your friends, your relatives, your family members...and their lives are about to be virtually destroyed. It's already too late to do anything about it. The markets can't afford to bare the burden of fulfilling the promises made...therefore the promises must be broken, and with them, the trust of a nation.

The impact on consumer spending and consumer confidence (the actual sentiment of consumers - not the fabricated data) will be profound. The lies that led to the failure of pension plans and the resulting failure of the economy will be added to the lies that led to Iraq and the war of terror, and the resulting distrust of all government fed information will change this country forever.

Wholesale distrust of the United States Government by loyal Republicans will upset the apple cart.

#219 DrStool

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 05:37 PM

Bad Moons Rising

Targets Move Up

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#220 The End

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 05:43 PM

Bad Moons Rising

Targets Move Up

Your Anals are loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW!

30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!

I will be gone from tonight until Sunday night so Have a safe journey home Doc and the mrs.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#221

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 06:03 PM

And look at google.  :blink:  :o

no wait,... don't tell me, ... beat by a penny? :o

Once all the insiders sell off all their shares does Google become Gurgle?

#222

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 06:07 PM

What the heck is it with this weather?

While the market may not seem bearish,
this weather is unuf to send any bear into its cave.

It is 64Deg here in Metro Detroit with light rain.
Normally, August is our hottest month--tank tops, shorts, swimming, etc.
Here I sit w/a long-sleaved sweatshirt and still cold.
Who needs A/C with weather like this?
Yet it seems criminal to turn on the furnace in August, so I add more quilts at night.

The plants in my gardens are acting like its already Fall, going into dormancy.
If that's the case, an early Fall, then God help us when winter hits.
The energy bills will be horrendous.

I'm thinking that there is far more than the ups and downs of the market that
we need to be concerned about.
The Planet that we count on for our existence is undergoing changes not yet known.
Is it about Global Warming? Are the weather patterns shifting?
If this is not just a temporary situation, how will people adjust/adapt?

Nature might just be giving us better clues than the market.

#223 wndysrf

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 06:16 PM

What the heck is it with this weather?

Coldest winter on record coming up.

The Hudson Bay Low arrived early this year.

Weather in California has already cooled 6 weeks early.

Watch Heating Oil and NatGas explode to new highs in September.............
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#224

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 06:24 PM

Regarding the Kerry Veteran Smear Campaign:

A series of interviews and a review of documents show a web of connections to the Bush family, high-profile Texas political figures and President Bush's chief political aide, Karl Rove.

Records show that the group received the bulk of its initial financing from two men with ties to the president and his family - one a longtime political associate of Mr. Rove's, the other a trustee of the foundation for Mr. Bush's father's presidential library. A Texas publicist who once helped prepare Mr. Bush's father for his debate when he was running for vice president provided them with strategic advice. And the group's television commercial was produced by the same team that made the devastating ad mocking Michael S. Dukakis in an oversized tank helmet when he and Mr. Bush's father faced off in the 1988 presidential election.

Several of those now declaring Mr. Kerry "unfit" had lavished praise on him, some as recently as last year.

In an unpublished interview in March 2003 with Mr. Kerry's authorized biographer, Douglas Brinkley, provided by Mr. Brinkley to The New York Times, Roy F. Hoffmann, a retired rear admiral and a leader of the group, allowed that he had disagreed with Mr. Kerry's antiwar positions but said, "I am not going to say anything negative about him." He added, "He's a good man."

In a profile of the candidate that ran in The Boston Globe in June 2003, Mr. Hoffmann approvingly recalled the actions that led to Mr. Kerry's Silver Star: "It took guts, and I admire that."

George Elliott, one of the Vietnam veterans in the group, flew from his home in Delaware to Boston in 1996 to stand up for Mr. Kerry during a tough re-election fight, declaring at a news conference that the action that won Mr. Kerry a Silver Star was "an act of courage." At that same event, Adrian L. Lonsdale, another Vietnam veteran now speaking out against Mr. Kerry, supported him with a statement about the "bravado and courage of the young officers that ran the Swift boats."

"Senator Kerry was no exception," Mr. Lonsdale told the reporters and cameras assembled at the Charlestown Navy Yard. "He was among the finest of those Swift boat drivers."

Those comments echoed the official record. In an evaluation of Mr. Kerry in 1969, Mr. Elliott, who was one of his commanders, ranked him as "not exceeded" in 11 categories, including moral courage, judgment and decisiveness, and "one of the top few" - the second-highest distinction - in the remaining five. In written comments, he called Mr. Kerry "unsurpassed," "beyond reproach" and "the acknowledged leader in his peer group."



This thing is going to come back to bite Bush...big time. Is there anyone who does not believe that republican masterstrategists were behind the encouragement and funding of this group? It's illegal. Bush's strategy of attacking the honor of his enemies is disgusting. It will cost him big time.

http://www.nytimes.c...gn/20swift.html

#225

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Posted 20 August 2004 - 06:26 PM

Next guest on Lou Dobbs is the author of

"The End Of Oil"





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