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B4 the Bell. Turdsday Aug 19, 2004


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#391

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 08:32 PM

P-A-N-I-C  :lol:

Sep.'04 CRUDE OIL, ACCESS
48.40
+1.13

Gimme some Saudi bullhorning...

How about a little "snowjob?"


DJ US Snow: Yukos Legal Problems Shouldn't Affect Oil Output

SPRINGFIELD, Mo. (Dow Jones)--The current run-up in oil prices probably is temporary, and is the result of a number of geopolitical concerns rather than supply-and-demand fundamentals, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Thursday.

"A number of factors has created uncertainty in the market," Snow told reporters following a speech. "I don't think the fundamentals justify prices at these levels."

Nymex oil futures for September delivery reached a new all-time high of $48.25 a barrel Thursday. Crude futures have now hit new highs in 15 of the past 17 trading sessions.

Snow cited several political concerns that have markets worried about oil supply. Snow said that the Bush administration has been assured by the Russian government that legal battles with OAO Yukos (YUKO.RS) won't diminish oil production.

"My understanding is that the Russians are committed to keeping output up," Snow said. "The court proceedings can go on without affecting production from the fields."

Snow said that the Saudi government has said it could push its oil production form the current level of 9.2 million barrels a day to as much as 10.5 million b/d right away. He said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is also taking steps to ramp up production.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi government is devoting resources to securing its oil pipelines, Snow said.

Snow again urged Congress to pass President George W. Bush's proposal for increasing U.S. energy production. He said that had Congress approved drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would have increased U.S. oil production by one million b/d.

Dow Jones Newswires

What's the oil situation all about?

Right here:

"Snow again urged Congress to pass President George W. Bush's proposal for increasing U.S. energy production. He said that had Congress approved drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would have increased U.S. oil production by one million b/d."


It's called a Hard Squeeze on Congress by the Oily Slicks!
They desperately want access to the protected US lands with oil.

Push the Sheeple hard enuf, scare 'em, threaten their gas supplies,
and they will vote for anything proposed to take away the pain.

Most people I talk to can't seem to understand why filthy rich people,
citing the Bushes, would be driven to make more money when they
already have enuf.

Old Zen question: When is enough enough?

#392 Sphinxter

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 08:46 PM

You mean like E=mc^2? In any event, I'll take chalkboard over handwaving any day.

Uhhh.

That particular "theory" led to Fat Man, Little boy and the Bikini Atoll experiments.

As with Gravity, I will defer to the gentlemen in the whitecoats capable of producing the blinding white flashes...

The problem here is that I am a scientist. So I go by the evidence.

As always, with any set of theories, there is always evidence pointing this way and there is evidence pointing that way.

You have to go with the preponderance until such time as reality intrudes and suggests you to go another way.

Some puny non-economically sound dribbles of oil allegedly pumped up from the Scandanavian depths notwithstanding, there is zero (nada, see also: zilch) to back up Gold's claims from an economically important standpoint.

Although I haven't read the book, I "saw the trailer" - a set of articles he wrote or contributed to - and came away saying "that's all he's got?". As in "Those are the funny parts of that movie? I'm not wasting my time and money on that...".

So there are two parts here. There's the theory of how oil develops - biotic or abiotic - which is very interesting from an egghead sort of viewpoint.

And then there's the economic part. If it turns out that oil develops very deep but takes a couple of geologic eras to accumulate in significant quantities near the surface where we can viably get at it - who cares?

It doesn't matter. It's academic.

Here's a few facts.

Since 1978 the new discoveries have been outpaced by extraction. That is, known reserves have been depleted faster than they have been discovered every year since 1978. If you're hoping that's because the oil companies have simply lacked the desire to find new ones - keep hoping!

Once an oil field collapses, from an economic point of view, its gone. With respect to a human timeframe, they just don't "re-fill" like you're suggesting. Certainly oil reseviors are complex subterranean structures replete with reef formations, pockets, and fissures so it's no surprize that some exhibit a complicated depletion profile. Further, none are ever 100% extracted and so it is no surprize that some went to 95% depletion vs. the predicted 82% depletion.

----------------------------

A serious question. Is Gold a Mormon?

Stick with me here. In 1993 when I was attending the Mormon visitor center in Salt Lake City, they had this wonderous panel-mural depicting the formation of the earth. Included Adam and Eve as very, very white folks sporting extremely unfortunate feathered haircuts - but, hey, the panels were commissioned in the 1970's so I guess that's just the luck of the draw.

Nonetheless, to make a long post endless, my point is that they had actually depicted oil being formed in oceanic trenches. When I queried my guide about that he said "there are some who doubt that God has provided for us in all ways. Some even suggest that oil will someday run out. I can tell you that, at this very moment, God is making more oil in the ocean's trenches for us to find. He will provide.".

This struck me as so odd, that I can remember it to this day.

To me, oil is not a matter of faith and hope but rather logic and evidence.

Sorry.

#393 Hypertiger

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 08:48 PM

We are taught in school that petroleum is a fossil fuel, made over eons from prehistoric biological material deposits, and therefore a scarce non-renewable resource. Actually, this is part of a set of outdated theories regarding not only petroleum, but even the origin and distribution of biological life on our planet.

Peak Oil is a model based on these theories, and is therefore highly dubious. I have posted more under a new LOB topic:

Peak Oil vs the Deep Hot Biosphere.
http://www.capitalst...t=ST&f=2&t=6121

Actually Dummy, not so.

The abiotic theory of oil production has some chalk-board noodling,

You mean like E=mc^2? In any event, I'll take chalkboard over handwaving any day.

a couple of lab-based (contrived) experiments on it's side,

That's better than the record for the other side which is still waiting for a lab experiment to work.
By the way, lab experiments are usually contrived. That's kind of the point. Does that make them invalid?

and a small amount of unexplained seepage from a very small gulf of mexico field.

and refilling wells,
and finding oil (and microbes) in the Siljan Ring under 6 kilometers of swedish granite

What's not in contention is:
(1) ALL major oil fields have been discovered in sedimentary basins.

Because that's where they keep drilling.

(2) 1.5 Billion years of biotic accumulation coupled to tectonic shifting can be expected to create conditions, due to stratic folding or fissure migration, where small quantities of oil could be expected to end up in some odd places.  Perhaps deeper than otherwise predicted or (seemingly) in a volcanic layer.

That is exactly the kind of thing that is in contention, hence the abiotic theory.

Unfortunately, the preponderance of evidence is against the notion that an abiotic mechanism is dominant in oil development.

This begs the question of what constitutes "the evidence". Have you read Gold's book?

The biotic theory has been used to actually locate fields (using plate tectonics to project migration patterns of sedimentary basin known to have harbored eons worth of low, warm, swampy areas).

Where does food come from? The grocery store of course!
How did it get there? The answer is mostly moot until they run out of milk.

Once it becomes inconvenient to oilmen and bankers that there is not enough oil in the existing patches, you can be sure they will go drill more wells, and there will be more oil.

If you can convince some investors to put down a rig over a big granitic batholith, you bring 24 diamond drill heads, I'll bring the cooler of beer and we'll conduct a right manly experiment.
Who knows?  You might strike oil.

they did. And they did.

If you have not read the book, you should before dismissing abiotic theory on "evidentiary" grounds. If you have read the book, maybe you can point out the specific mistakes that Gold has made and provide me some counter-cites

Like I said the fantasy is designed to keep you busy denying reality...

A debate where Oil comes from...This is pure humor.

Oil comes from those who own it...end of story...

And they have no obligation to give you more then they see fit to give to you...

Got it?

Currently the price is 47 dollars a barrel...If you can borrow 47 created out of thin air dollars you can get your hands on it...If you can only borrow 46.99 created out of thin air dollars then hit the road jack...end of story...Go to hell...come back tomorrow maybe it will be cheaper...

Now do you understand where oil comes from?

It comes from a hole in the ground you say? Then start digging.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#394 depends

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 08:52 PM

...why filthy rich people..driven to make more money...

Sherlock,

I have always believed that a better societal method would
impose a high limit of $1 million income per individual per year.

Once the $1 mil was reached the person could either

1. face a tax on excess monies

2. hire more people and distribute the excess

3. allow another person take their place in their job

4. give the money to charity

5. invest in a co-operative venture

You would see greater money flow at all levels of society.

I call this Millionaireacanism, but the name is subject to change.
by rule of committee.

Does anybody want to start a new country?

#395 Ned38

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:02 PM

http://news.yahoo.co...01404&printer=1

Iran warns of preemptive strike to prevent attack on nuclear sites

Wed Aug 18, 4:14 PM ET


DOHA (AFP) - Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani warned that Iran might launch a preemptive strike against US forces in the region to prevent an attack on its nuclear facilities.

Pre-emptive :blink: ...................Who do they think they are ? the USA? :lol:

#396 brian4

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:03 PM

Depends you don't have to-just come to Canada-Eh! Fair value numbers Spoo's- 1091.01-NutsDuck 1354.61 and yup they are below fair value and getting their lights punched out I gonna luv tomorrow! As to Oil look if it was all about drilling Granite they would have done it-we are/will still be ok as we switch to 4 cylinder engines and one car per family and that WILL happen just watch! The second car will be a Vespa! ;)

#397 depends

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:15 PM

Ya know, I wish they would use those c130 gunships
on the Walmart stores. When it rains the place would leak
so bad they would go out of business. Then people like me
could start up our old businesses and peddle our own
merchandise instead of that chinese crap.

Brian - I'm thinking about it.

#398 machinehead

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:15 PM

Oil comes from those who own it...end of story...

And they have no obligation to give you more then they see fit to give to you...

Got it?

Dude ... I love it!

And so would Ayn Rand!

* lights up gold dollar-sign cigarette like H. Bogart *
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#399 brian4

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:15 PM

About Iran understand-1 Million under arms well trained, and well armed by North Korea, Intermediate range ICBM's and an Air Force that knows how to fight-we do NOT want this... ;)

#400 depends

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:19 PM

Brian - about Iran - exactly.
We are stuck in Iraq. Bogged down.

does this picture ring a bell?

Attached Images

  • tar_baby.gif


#401 NWD

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:21 PM

Their defense minister said that they do not view the presence of US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq so much as a threat as a useful source of hostages.

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:31 PM

The Strong Economy Hook!

#403 AGInvestor

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:33 PM

DJ Iran Says It Can Produce Nuclear Arms In 4 Yrs -Official

  WASHINGTON (AP)--Iran has informed U.K., French and German officials it could produce weapons-grade uranium within a year and a nuclear weapon no more than three years after that, U.S. Undersecretary of State John R. Bolton said Thursday.

  "These Iranian assertions give the lie to their public contention that their nuclear program is entirely civil and peaceful in purpose," Bolton said in an interview.
Dow Jones Newswires

So why would Iran admit to it or even being interested in producing weapons. Makes absolutely no sense given what just happened to Iraq. The media reporting gets loopier and loopier by the day.

That reminds me of the spin a few months ago that it was those evil Iranians that tricked the US into invading Iraq by supplying us with false intelligence. I guess we're supposed to believe that Iran is dumb enough to want the US military in Iraq with only a puppet government in Baghdad standing in our way.

#404 Butterfield 8

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:34 PM

[



thats billion with "B"

That's nothin'. The Pentagon lost over a trillion. That's trillion with a T

#405 depends

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 09:35 PM

Over on bullstool board swinger posted this.

http://www.bullstool...t=20

semi book to bill





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