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B4 the Bell. Turdsday Aug 19, 2004


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#1 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 07:29 AM

:D Welcome to B4 the bell. :D Going to the high country for a few days as summer fades. Nothing like getting closer to the sun to make those solar panels work better. :lol:

Will Google gurgle? What will they kick out of the portfolio so they can park some Gurgle right next to their Yahooebay? I opined it might cause some indigestion a couple of weeks back. We'll see.

Doc with his accu-stock forecast in the subscriber only Anals called for congestion at 1095. Here's hoping that yesterday's afternoon congestion morphs into a 400 bull pile up. If you're trading this market without his sage cycle based forecasting and other critical data points such as feed/liquidity tracking - well good luck. Wanna get lucky? Take a subscription for the unbelievably low price Doc offers. I do and I don't even trade. 9 to 24 days Doc? Puts it right into the ole Labor day window- one of my favorites for "accidents".

All of the talk of 990N and Pee Pee Tea keeps ringing a little alarm bell in my two remaining brain cells. I glance back at Shrubco's record and recall the propensity for peaking too early. Come again Mr. Prez? I believe the market can be muscled around for short periods of time but ultimately Mr. Market is bigger than anybody and it will do what it will do.

Oil refuses to back down. I don't think there's too much question that supplies are tight and that there's little anyone can do to alter this for the time being. There is unquestionably a speculator/terror premium in here but I don't think it's all that big. When China starts offering to front the train fare for Yukos oil they aren't just being good neighbors. They want their oil - NOW!! From a geo-political view the new found coziness of China and Russia seems to grow. But then Hitler and the Soviets were friendly to start with too, until Hitler moved in to collect the oil. Things kind of went downhill from there. Deja vu.

The future is so bright I gotta wear shades. Of course they're flip-ups in case the clouds move in unexpectedly. :P
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Uncle Bucky's color has drained a little. Nurse! Code Blue!
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PM's are mildly green this AM going into NY.

I don't belive in free lunches. I don't believe in perpetual motion machines or miracle 200 mpg carbs. And, I don't believe anyone has repealed the basic laws of thermodynamics. How many windmills spinning at how many rpms for how long would it take to produce enough energy to create all of the parts for just one windmill? Smelting the ore into copper ingots and then running the machines to convert that into wire would strain the system just a tad and lordy knows any aluminum parts would require massive inputs to convert the bauxite into aluminum. We take these simple materials for granted without realizing how energy intensive just getting the ore out of the ground has become. Oh sure we could dig it out by hand and transport the ore to the smelter by donkey cart but then we aren't going to produce a lot of ore that way are we? Fossil fuels power almost everything and there, so far, is no practical substitute. Donkeys are also in short supply relative to the demand that would be created. B)

#2 depends

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 07:34 AM

Ahhh...gold $406.
doc's gold report is a treasure.

#3 Sphinxter

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 07:36 AM

From Richard Russell we get this about Japan’s net Treasony Bond purchases:

In June Japan bought a net $21.2 billion of the Treasuries, while China bought a smaller amount. Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, accounting for $689 billion, followed by China, which owns $164.8 billion.


Hmmm.

I wonder what their trade surplus was for the month?

TOKYO, Japan (Reuters) -- Japan's trade surplus rose in June for the 12th consecutive month, government data showed Thursday, helped by strong exports of parts for mobile phones and equipment related to semiconductors.
Economists also pointed to signs of rising imports, saying it could mean Japan's domestic demand is strengthening.
The customs-cleared trade surplus for June was up 36.9 percent from a year earlier at 1.147 trillion yen ($10.44 billion), the Ministry of Finance said.
The figure was lower than the median forecast of 1.2933 trillion yen in a Reuters poll of 26 economists.


Found here: Thanks for the free TV's, suckers!

Gosh.

$10.44B for the month, huh? But didn’t Richard say that they bought $21.2B in Treasony notes? That means that the Japs bought 103% more bonds than their surplus would indicate.

This goes well beyond a simple vendor financing scheme where the lender and the lendee round-trip the same amounts simply accumulating a burgeoning debt/asset account.

No what we have here is a 103% vendor financing scheme. “You buy one of mine and I’ll give you twice the amount back”.

Hold on, you say? It’s even worse than that?

The [June] trade surplus with the United States, Japan's largest trading partner, was up 19.9 percent from a year earlier at 577.36 billion yen, rising for the first time in four months.


Oh. The actual June trade surplus with the US was slightly less than ˝ of their total surplus. That means that the net vendor-financing ratio now stands at +200%.

Again, in the words of Russell, here’s what it means:

So as the US outsources jobs from its declining manufacturing industry, and as foreigners buy an increasing portion of US assets, the US quietly and subtly grow economically weaker.

As the US manufacturing and exporting capabilities weaken, it will, in time, put pressure on the dollar.

Next phase -- since Americans depend more and more on foreign imports, and as the dollar weakens, it will cost Americans more and more to buy the foreign goods that they love.

This process means that over time, the US standard of living must decline. It will be the result of US wages being "too high" compared with Indian and Chinese and Asian wages. And it will be the result of the US losing its manufacturing base (remember, Greenspan said we didn't need manufacturing). And lastly, it will be a result of US consumers losing their purchasing power via a long-term declining trend for the dollar.


Found here: Richard Russell

For the first time, ever, America’s standard of living will be significantly reduced from one generation to the next.

A hearty golf clap to “the greatest generation ever”. Nice job.

<_< <_< :angry: :(

#4 HiHat

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 07:41 AM

OIL futures......$47.78,,,,,,,,,,,up .50

#5 Sphinxter

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 07:42 AM

OIL futures......$47.78,,,,,,,,,,,up .50

Bullish!

:D

#6 machinehead

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 07:43 AM

BBC reports that US forces have moved into the Sadr City neighborhood of Baghdad, even as the standoff continues in Najaf dozens of miles away.

Same old shiite

Nothing like upping the ante with further provocations. Something like "Come out of that mosque with your hands up, or we'll kill some of your people in another city." (Didn't MAD magazine once have a cover that said, "Send us money or we'll shoot this dog"?)

This stuff has consequences, some of which can be seen in the currency, oil and precious metals markets.

As of this morning, the "Energy President" has managed to push crude oil up another 25 cents to $47.50. What the hell, fifty states, fifty dollahs ... :huh:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 07:51 AM

Rising demand in emerging economies China and India have shaken up the oil market this year, intensifying competition for supply with established consuming giants such as the United States.

China's refineries have processed 17.2 percent more crude so far this year than in 2003, the county's State Statistical Bureau said on Thursday. Crude imports have soared nearly 40 percent from last year.

India's biggest refiner, State-run Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. (IOC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) , said it expected India's crude oil imports to rise by 11 percent in 2004/05 as demand rises by nearly 4 percent.

In the United States, which guzzles around a quarter of the world oil, demand so far this year is up 3.4 percent, stopping inventories building much as rising consumption absorbs extra imports from OPEC producers such Saudi Arabia.

U.S. government data for the week on Wednesday showed commercial crude oil supplies had fallen 1.3 million barrels to 293 million barrels last week, the third straight week of declines.

Rising demand has left little slack in the system to cope with any supply problems, such as those in Iraq where Shi'ite militia have said they will target oil infrastructure if U.S. forces do not leave the holy city of Najaf.

Iraq's southern pipeline has been shut since a sabotage attack on Aug. 9, curbing export flows to about a million barrel daily, half normal rates.

"The situation in Basra is still deemed too dangerous to operate the line, although headquarter employees returned to work today and events in Najaf are encouraging," a South Oil Company official on Thursday.

http://www.reuters.c...storyID=6017004

#8 DrStool

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 07:51 AM

Launchpad Construction Continues

Countdown May Be Delayed

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#9 Sphinxter

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 07:53 AM

Sled - take it away!

Nortel to cut 3,500 jobs, or 10% of work force, as part of strategic plan. Details coming.


Yeah. The "strategy" here is to stop the red ink caused by a broken business model.

Fortunately, these soon-to-be-fired people can rely on the fact that the BLS has assumed the the fradulent BEA GDP numbers are correct and have, accordingly, made a statistically favorable adjustment to the Net Birth-Death model.

In the opinion of gubmint satisticians everywhere, there are hundreds of thousands of new jobs being created out there right at this very moment.

Go find 'em kids!

:D

#10 DrStool

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 07:53 AM

Regarding Yobob's and Depends's comments, what can I say except, "I am Dr. Stepan N. Stool, and I approve this message." :lol: :lol: :lol:

Many tanks for the kind words, guys!

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#11 machinehead

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 08:03 AM

Whoa -- here's a little glitch in the Matrix:

News that Argentina bought 42 tonnes of gold in the first six months of this year, partially offsetting the impact of planned sales within the Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement, also lent support [to gold].


Argentina stocks up

It's interesting that during his election campaign, Argentine President Nestor Kirchner advocated a gold-backed peso. That idea has gone quiet since his inauguration ... but actions speak louder than words, eh?

Fascinating also is that even with the IMF and creditors committees breathing down its neck about defaulted loans and bonds, Argentina is shoveling some available cash into gold.

I'm of the opinion that when the U.S. Ponzi scheme goes down, the Third World will default en masse on the rich countries' loans. Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, and dozens of smaller debtors will bid "bye-bye suckers." You want money? Come down and pick soybeans ... bring your bushel baskets! :lol:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#12 Ned38

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 08:05 AM

Well if Russel is right and I do think he is, I am gonna start looking to buy all the houses surrounding mine, once my mortgaged to the hilt neighbors get to the "No Reasonable Offer Refused" stage.

I will set up my 2 boys in those houses and create a sorta Ponderosa or maybe I'll call it the Nedarosa. We'll have Ned38, Lil' Ned, Lil'Lil' Ned, Mrs Ned, Mrs Nedinlaw etc etc etc.

We'll own 'em all free and clear and live the old fashioned way.

Then when the nuveu riche Chinese entrepenuers come looking to buy we will relieve them of their yuans and simply say shei shei

#13 Tchaikofsky

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 08:13 AM

500 shares of GOOG bid at $55.00 in the premarket on Island.

None offered.

:o

#14

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 08:15 AM

Initial Jobless Claims

When the number comes out this time - expect it to be surprisingly bad, and expect it to send the Ten Year Yield diving south to set up the final round of RefiMadness.

Provided they hit their scripted target for the Ten Year (38), this will be the worst jobs number we get. Next week's number will be about the same, though slightly improved, and then the remaining jobless numbers will be "surprisingly good" leading into the erection.

It's in the script.

#15 Sphinxter

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Posted 19 August 2004 - 08:16 AM

Whoa -- here's a little glitch in the Matrix:

News that Argentina bought 42 tonnes of gold in the first six months of this year, partially offsetting the impact of planned sales within the Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement, also lent support [to gold].


Argentina stocks up

It's interesting that during his election campaign, Argentine President Nestor Kirchner advocated a gold-backed peso. That idea has gone quiet since his inauguration ... but actions speak louder than words, eh?

Fascinating also is that even with the IMF and creditors committees breathing down its neck about defaulted loans and bonds, Argentina is shoveling some available cash into gold.

I'm of the opinion that when the U.S. Ponzi scheme goes down, the Third World will default en masse on the rich countries' loans. Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, and dozens of smaller debtors will bid "bye-bye suckers." You want money? Come down and pick soybeans ... bring your bushel baskets! :lol:

Hmmm. This means that they used to have zero gold reserves I suppose.

Look at the table in the latest World Official Gold Report.

Found here.

It shows that,as of July, Argentina is holding 42.6 Tonnes.

Heading in the right direction, though.





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