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B4 The Bell Wednesday August 18


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#46 brian4

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:30 AM

Doc we are going to make a French speaking Canadian out of you yet! :)

#47 Drano

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:38 AM

Sledd - did you notice CECO has started its next leg down -- opened down something like 1.20 this a.m. Sadly, I never got back in.
Of course I'm caustic!

#48 machinehead

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:43 AM

Stagflation means higher prices and stagnent wages.

the matrix must prepare the sheep for the future, so the news may just keep reporting on stagflation.

NE

Sorry I disagree. Stagflation implies price inflation with a stagnant economy; i.e. no growth in real terms. Higher prices without commensurate rises in incomes reduces demand ... a reduced demand coupled with low cap ute and current over production as evidenced by rising inventories of late will lead to lower prices.

yobob, you seem to be saying that stagflation is economically impossible.

The Seventies proved that stagflation can happen, even with high unemployment and poor demand.

The Weimar inflation of 1923 can be viewed as stagflation or something worse, "slumpflation."
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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#49 DrStool

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:45 AM

Up Off The Mat

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:51 AM

[quote name='yobob1' date='Aug 18 2004, 08:24 AM'] [quote name='No Einstein' date='Aug 18 2004, 07:14 AM'] [quote name='yobob1' date='Aug 18 2004, 07:41 AM']
! [/QUOTE]


Besides if it's becoming a buzzword once again, that should warn you that the trend has abouit peaked. [/QUOTE]
I wouldn't be to sure of that, in the 70's stagfltion was in the news for a long time and it was happening. Just because it hit the news doesn't mean it won't continue for a long time. Stagflation means higher prices and stagnent wages.

the matrix must prepare the sheep for the future, so the news may just keep reporting on stagflation.

NE [/QUOTE]
Sorry I disagree. Stagflation implies price inflation with a stagnant economy; i.e. no growth in real terms. Higher prices without commensurate rises in incomes reduces demand partciularly in an economy where the personal savings rate is already at historic lows (1.2% vs. norm of about 8% in the US) and personal debt levels are at or near record highs in virtually any metric. To me this kind of situation is self correcting in that a reduced demand coupled with low cap ute and current over production as evidenced by rising inventories of late will lead to lower prices. The poster child for this effect is the auto industry [/quote]
Not to disagree with your premise, Yobob, but one additional thought:

The auto market changed.

There is certainly no inventory build in hybrid vehicles, but there is massive build in American Made Gashogs...which we clearly know they "sold forward" with zero down no payments for three years gimmicks.

I wouldn't look at the American Auto Manufacturers as an example of anything other than rank stupidity. The highest weight, highest horsepower lineup of U.S. cars was rolled out last year, at the worst possible time in history.

Obviously this is the Perfect Storm for the US auto industry.

#51 soup

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:52 AM

expiration is hanging heavily over the mkt.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:55 AM

HSY is bound to melt one of these days. Is today the day?

#53 Pee Brain

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:59 AM

By the way, I closed on my lot purchase here in Quebec yesterday. Madame Stool and I are now the proud owners of a little pied a terre here in Smallville Canada. This place is like a throwback to 1940s small town USA, except that no one speaks English. We will build a small home here next summer.

I will be selling my house in FL, and will rent there for the foreseeable future, until the next great buying opportunity appears. I made 58 times my equity in 13 years there. I expect an opportunity like that again in 4-5 years when the market is cheap.


doc, congrats on the lot and best of luck on the home sale!
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#54 Bearbones

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:59 AM

Maybe, after the period we've just been through, it just feels like stagflation.

"Three percent growth and 3 percent inflation is not an unusual combination for the postwar U.S. economy. In fact, it would be a relatively favorable post-bubble outcome judged, say, against Japan's experience. But it would be a shock in view of most current expectations"

http://www.aei.org/p.../pub_detail.asp

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:59 AM

CNBS Analcyst just said:

"I think you're going to see the market detach from the price of oil and move higher even if oil continues to rise"

Funny how that theme is being repeated almost daily by the different guests on their show. Wonder who wrote that script?

#56 brian4

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 10:00 AM

Canada and the U.S. have long prided themselves on having the longest undefended Border in the World NOT anymore as the Idiot Prince's paranoia builds "Fortress America". Lead story todays Vancouver Sun-page one.. Headline... U.S. expands border patrol to counter B.C. Threats...The U.S. plans to beef up surveillance on the B.C.-Washington Border beginning this week to counter what it see's as the threat of terrorism, illegal migration and smuggling of weapons and drugs. Intelligence indicates there is a threat up there in Canada that needs to be responded to so we are providing the air and marine capability to respond to that ..said Gary Bracken, Communications Director for the U.S. Office of Air and Marine Operations in Washington D.C." He said Black Hawk Helicopters, fixed wing aircraft and two marine units would scan an area within a 400 kilometre radius of the Bellingham Wash. Airport. Now this news has started a major flap as this goof wants to patrol deep into Canadian airspace and it seems he forgot we are a Sovereign Country and our Military is NOT impressed with the U.S. plans. The same deployment is planned for the Plattsburg, N.Y. Canadian Border area. Shrub and crew are making the U.S. look like a bunch of fascist thugs he can't tell a friend from an enemy! ;)

#57 soup

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 10:08 AM

I was/am dead wrong. I really did not think, given the huge debt loads and detoriating balance sheets, that they could ignite another re fi binge. Looks they will lend to anyone and everyone with no thought of retrun on principal. All I can say is bizare. Did the new era pass this ole geezer by?
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 10:10 AM

As soon as the market got into the green they cut to Pissonme for the following:

"The theme for today is that the market is decoupling from the higher price of oil...note that oil is up today and the market is moving higher despite that fact."

IT IS SO RIDICULOUS

#59 Guest_bullseatshitndie_*

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 10:15 AM

CNBS Analcyst just said:

"I think you're going to see the market detach from the price of oil and move higher even if oil continues to rise"

Funny how that theme is being repeated almost daily by the different guests on their show. Wonder who wrote that script?

my theory is this market is being held up by the powers that be. this market s/b getting its ass kicked w/ these oil prices. the theme on Crapvision repeated day after day is, market up despite higher oil. it's to keep the j6p at ease and invested.
the big surprise will be when oil does make a short term top and the markets fall.

#60 soup

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Posted 18 August 2004 - 10:17 AM

look at those ticks. Once again shows how short puts the street is .
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg





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