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B4 The Bell, Moonday, August 16


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#226 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 09:35 PM

This chart shows the widening divergence between the 50 and 200 dma of the ndx:

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#227 The End

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 09:39 PM

Great charts MWH.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#228 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 09:39 PM

FWIW, this is what happened in August of 2000 when the same moving averages crossed over and started diverging as they are doing now:

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  • convergence2.GIF


#229 Sphinxter

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 09:41 PM

Allright, Sphinx.  Let's test our thesis.

Crude oil has been in a strong uptrend this past twelve months and oil company share prices have been following suit. 

Over the the last few weeks, crude has threatened to go parabolic.  Now suppose oil execs, for some reason  <_< , decided to sit on the price of gas.  Well, then their share prices should suffer -- might even reverse trend... B) ...

:o

So the ol services index has the same value as it had at the end of april? When crude oil was a lot lower, you say?

Hmmmmm. That's odd. I would have, rather innocently as it turns out, have assumed that greater profits would be had by oil companies during the upslope phase of an oil price change.

As in; while inventory purchased for fewer dollars is still on hand during an oil price spike one could still sell said lower priced inventory for more money leading to, ... let me get the old abacus out here, ... divide by one, add zero, um, raise to the first power, uh, uh, multiply by one, subtract the square root of zero, and .... presto! higher profits result!

Alternatively, while oil is back on the downslope, but a stodgy old Texas-politician bought-and-owned Earl company still has massive quantities of higher-priced crude stock on hand, but its crafty competitor has a JIT inventory system could lead to some profit issues.

Plugging this equation into my trusty abacus indicates that lower profits might be in store. Hard to say for sure. The new economy regularly baffles my finer instincts.

So, on the surface, it kinda defies the mind to consider that oil stocks are having a hard time with higher crude prices.

Kinda like a 130 point blast on the heels of an historically bad empire staate index reading. Just doesn't seem kosher.

All the best SJ.

I think we're on the same page here and elsewhere.

S

#230 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 09:51 PM

For the sake of disclosure, the 97/98 bullish reversal started under similar circumstances, as the bearish crossover ran out of steam and turned back upwards. It could happen again, though it's worth mentioning that that low came on the heels of some fairly real selling and fear, not this mellow-yellow namby-pamby kind of low macd stuff masquerading as Dover Sole.

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  • convergence3.GIF


#231 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 09:52 PM

Thanks End. WH thinks I'm addicted to this site. Who knows, he may be right. But I might as well post something useful if I'm going to hang around here. B)

#232 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 09:54 PM

"The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise ... economics is a form of brain damage."
-- Hazel Henderson


Great signature, Sphinxter.

#233 zensmoke

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 10:00 PM

Great charts, MWH!!!

#234 zensmoke

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 10:05 PM

Nortel Says Canada Plans Accounting Probe
Monday August 16, 8:27 pm ET

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE:NT - News; Toronto:NT.TO - News) said on Monday the Royal Canadian Mounted Police told the company it will begin a criminal investigation into Nortel's financial accounting.
http://biz.yahoo.com...s_nortel_1.html

#235 wndysrf

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 10:06 PM

Allright, Sphinx. Let's test our thesis.

Crude oil has been in a strong uptrend this past twelve months and oil company share prices have been following suit.

Over the the last few weeks, crude has threatened to go parabolic. Now suppose oil execs, for some reason <_< , decided to sit on the price of gas. Well, then their share prices should suffer -- might even reverse trend... B) ...

Gasoline here in California is about 40 cents off the highs, nowhere near as high as it was this past Spring....

Rumor has it that the refiners are cutting their margins in an attempt to keep retail prices stable, so that the public doesn't become outraged at price gouging.

So far, its working.

Virtually no complaints on the news about the high gasoline prices.

People are happy that prices are coming down, and as a result, the rise in crude prices are having virtually no effect on public opinion.

SUVs are everywhere, monster trucks, etc.

The hot ticket now is to buy an H2 Hummer and put a Pro-Comp lift kit on it with the stainless steel shock sets and the steel braided lines to separate reservoirs. About a $5,000 mod, not including the lift kit.

Complacany rules, out here................
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#236 Pee Brain

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 10:07 PM

Thanks End. WH thinks I'm addicted to this site. Who knows, he may be right. But I might as well post something useful if I'm going to hang around here. B)


doesnt stop me from hanging around :lol:

MWH, could you expand on your thoughts regarding the 50/200 MA difference? seems that the 50 MA could be extended and do to cozzy up closer to the 200? or is it just gonna drag the 200 down with it?
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#237 Pee Brain

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 10:13 PM

J6P still doesn't have a friggin' clue. Here in beautiful NJ workers are striking the Nestle plant. Little do these morons know they will soon be out of jobs altogether when the plant which has been operating on less than full steam for years is closed and they are sent packing. Lots of plants in not so union friendly areas of this great union.


had the same thought at the gym earlier today. still talk of hot housing market and buying, still new cars pulling up in the lot. im talking young people too - hey a new home in carlsbad, CA aint cheap, particularly if you aint trading up. honestly, the lack of fear that i see in real estate and other areas has led me to question my own beliefs. ive just been so wrong for so long!

edit: didnt see mark's post, but ive been telling you gas is cheap out here! im also amazed by Monster trucks that are so big that i just pull to the slow lane and let them pass - they always seem to tailgate. do i get a pretty blond too if i buy a hummer?

OT/Sherlock, it works! i found my keys.... great B-day present :lol:
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#238 zensmoke

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 10:16 PM

Hey Doc, do we get a free exam with our subscription renewal???

Doctors Doing Too Many Colonoscopies
By Steven Reinberg
HealthDay Reporter


MONDAY, Aug. 16 (HealthDayNews) -- Many doctors are performing unnecessary colonoscopies, a new study says.

The findings suggest physicians are not following clinical guidelines and overusing the screening test for colon cancer. In turn, this strains an already limited resource and eats up manpower and money, according to the report in the Aug. 17 issue of the Annals of Internal Medicine.

http://www.forbes.co...cout520656.html

(Hey, isn't Annals misspelled?) :rolleyes:

#239 brian4

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 10:16 PM

MWH- go Girl you are on a role! ;)

#240 brian4

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Posted 16 August 2004 - 10:20 PM

Oh My the Gates of Hell just opened and the Spoo and Nuts Duck futures fell into it-MEDIC! ;) Here come turn around Tuesday!





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