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Posted 14 August 2004 - 11:04 AM

Soft Patch My Ass...

Acceleration of the economy was a trend, and deceleration of the economy is a trend. Once the stimulus that caused the acceleration was no longer effective, the natural forces of deceleration from the bubble of 2000 resumed. The REAL data tell the story, and show a consistent trend toward continuing deceleration. There is no logical reason to postulate the deceleration will stop and reverse into acceleration...aside from wishful thinking.

Last night, even Cramer was admitting defeat:

He stated that he was mostly in cash, that the stimulus SHOULD HAVE created many more jobs at this stage of the recovery than it has, and that "IT DIDN'T WORK."

Welcome to the point of recognition.


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Posted 14 August 2004 - 11:18 AM

Family in Florida is fine...they've lived through many such blows world wide.
Good that you are ok HiHat.

Florida ag reports need to be checked...citrus futures asscessed in light of tree damage. Winter Haven and south took a good lick.

Drano: PEZ went flying upwards. :lol: :lol:


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Posted 14 August 2004 - 11:27 AM

Terrorism fears no longer helping Bush, study finds
Posted on Saturday, August 14 @ 08:34:51 EDT By Debra Pickett, Chicago Sun-Times

A new study reveals a surprising twist on the conventional wisdom about November's presidential election: While political pundits seem to agree that news of terrorist threats and other dangers from abroad is good news for President Bush's re-election bid, the opposite might be true.

Michigan State University political science professors Darren W. Davis and Brian D. Silver say their study found that the more worried people are about the possibility of another terrorist attack, the more likely they are to vote for John Kerry. The research will be presented at a meeting of political scientists in Chicago next month.

The professors have been tracking Americans' attitudes about politics, civil liberties and security in a series of national and Michigan-wide surveys since 2001.

In the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, they found that people who expressed greater concern about threats of future terrorism were more likely to approve of Bush's presidential performance, while those who were less worried were less likely to support the president.

But by spring 2004, "this relationship had reversed: Those who were more concerned about terrorism were less likely to approve of Bush's performance," the professors say in their report.


In the aftermath of this article, an UN-NAMED WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL informed dozens of news agencies that there was never actually an imminent threat of terror attack during the most recent Code Orange alert. This needs to be thoroughly investigated. If these transparent assholes are now attempting to lower the fear-factor as a result of this study, they need to be hung.

This would of course serve to explain why Bush felt comfortable to send his wife and daughter to the bank building which was purported to be targeted for imminent attack.

No evidence of imminent terrorist attack on US: White House

Two weeks ago, when Homeland Security Secretary
Tom Ridge warned of possible al-Qaida attacks, the "where" was very specific: financial institutions in New York City, Washington and Newark, New Jersey.

The "when," however, was a mystery. And since Ridge's announcement, the administration of President George W Bush has discovered no evidence of imminent plans by terrorists to attack US buildings, a White House official acknowledged Thursday.

Some documents and computer files seized in al-Qaida raids included surveillance reports of the financial buildings during 2000 and 2001, which prompted warnings Aug. 1 from the White House about possible threats. But nothing in the documents themselves has suggested any attack was planned soon, the official said.

"I have not seen an indication of an imminent operation," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity with reporters from nearly a dozen news organisations


#19 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 11:28 AM

Hi Hat
Great to hear all is OK
You put me on the floor with the cat story.
I would never even attempt to tell my better half to leave the cat behind.
The repercussions would make the hurricane pale in comparison!

Doing a story and need help.
Anyone got the Airline Index symbol?

Cancel that found it...
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#20 fxfox


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Posted 14 August 2004 - 11:32 AM


'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#21 machinehead


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Posted 14 August 2004 - 11:39 AM

John Mauldin talks about the pension Debtberg:

But what if the Dow drops to 6,000 as it might during the next recession and the NASDAQ goes to 600? What if your returns are negative for the next few years?

How much are you underfunded then, as your portfolio drops another 20 percent? The number becomes mind-boggling. If each of the S&P 500 companies lowered its expected rate of return from the current average of 9.2 percent to 6.5 percent, the total cost to earnings would be $30 billion, according to a report by CSFB. But if the Dow drops to 6,000 the number goes off the chart. Remember, the average drop in the markets is 43% during recessions.

Pension Peril

Mauldin fails to mention that Congress passed a 'law' earlier this year, allowing companies to assume a rate of return on pension assets based on the yield on corporate debt, which is of course higher than the Treasury yield used in the past.

There's a couple of things wrong with that. One is that the use of the Treasury yield had been conservative -- if future payments can be accurately projected, they can be funded with zero-coupon Treasury bonds with certainty. Corporate bonds are subject to default risk, and part of the default risk involves heavy pension obligations -- a potential self-feeding vicious spiral.

What's worse, though, is that most pension plans are heavily allocated into equities. In raising its rate of return assumptions, Corporate America has made a gigantic bet that not only is the stock market going to "bounce back," it's going to embark on another record-setting secular bull run, like 1982-2000.

That's a stupid, hopeless, sucker bet. It sets up a feedback loop in which lower stock prices force higher pension contributions, which lowers earnings, which lowers stock prices again and ... etc.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 11:41 AM

Hi Hat
Great to hear all is OK
You put me on the floor with the cat story.
I would never even attempt to tell my better half to leave the cat behind.
The repercussions would make the hurricane pale in comparison!

Doing a story and need help.
Anyone got the Airline Index symbol?

Cancel that found it...

Glad to hear you made it through HiHat!!!

For future reference...Wrap kitty in towel (Kitty Burrito), shove all into cat carrier, lock door.

You make Kitty Scared.

#23 NWD


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Posted 14 August 2004 - 11:56 AM


"On Saturday, Iraq resumed pumping of oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan at levels not seen for the past year due to repeated acts of sabotage, the Northern Oil Company said."

Rate: 600k - 800k bbl/day.

"But in Basra, an official of the Southern Oil Company said, following the halt in oil production announced Monday as fighting flared in Najaf, 'now we have stopped pumping too through the pipeline.'"

"US-Led Assault On Iraq Insurgency Kills Dozens, Oil Exports Resume"


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Posted 14 August 2004 - 12:03 PM

A 43% market drop means the markets must then gain 75% just to break even.

Suprise...suprise! Bull markets are definitely engagued in the Greater Fool Theory

#25 brian4


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Posted 14 August 2004 - 12:07 PM

I agree that Iraq is getting totally out of American control. The tell is all of a sudden there is a heavy dependence on Gunships and Bombers which results in a huge increase in civilian casualties and clearly shows that the Grunts on the ground can't handle it with the troops they have. The choice now is stark they either take out Al Sadr and endure the months of increased violence that will result OR Iraq and the Puppet Government collapse into Civil War and U.S. casualties go thru the roof. If they take out Al Sadr all illusions of a free Democratic Iraq go out the window if they don't the the civilian death toll will go thru the roof as a beleagured Army uses every heavy weapon at their disposal to protect themselves. What a freakin mess and what a frakin choice! ;)


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Posted 14 August 2004 - 12:12 PM


The pension mess (and the dependence on stock market success to fund the pensions), is the only explanation required to explain the "Unconventional Measures" being employed by Treasury to prop the markets..to say nothing of the lies by
Greenspan and the Administration. Whether they pay now, by supporting the markets, or pay later, by having to backstop the failed pension plans of millions of retirees, the Treasury is on the hook for the failed strategies which led Unions to drive corporate policy, ultimately leading us straight off the cliff as benefit costs buried America's Manufacturing Base.

If it seemed outrageous at the time (as it sure did to me growing up in Michigan) that someone totally unskilled could be paid $25 per hour to screw lug nuts on cars all day, plus receive 6 weeks of paid vacation, free health insurance and a pension for the remaining 30-plus years of their life following retirement...well, it was outrageous...and OBVIOUSLY unsustainable.

That entire fantasyland scenario was based upon "Island America" - a nation of manufacturing and export. As Perot recognized clearly, NAFTA did not take into account that we had built our entire country on a model that required tightly controlled and managed trade...limiting cheap imports while promoting exports of our manufactured goods. Whether or not you agree with this protectionist approach...keep in mind that our unions were negotiating (strong arming) American corporations into labor/benefits contracts under an entirely different economic model than we have today.

Welcome to the land of unintended consequences.

Say whatever you want to about the unions - we are where we are because the costs paid by these corporations for the "productivity" of these workers was completely out of line with reality.

Our country is hosed as a direct result - not just from unrealistic union demands...but in combination with the lifting of trade restrictions that did not account for the consequences that would surely result. As these former union workers take jobs at pay scales more commensurate with their skill levels, and their benefits evaporate into the fog of bankruptcy courts, the bitter realities of their collective futures will come into clear focus. They were sold a bill of goods. It was never sustainable. What seemed "too good to be true" - was.

No amount of manipulation is going to fix it.

#27 Captain's Log

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 12:35 PM

Beleive me, the west wont fail because of some shitty bearded nutcases somewhere in the middle east.

FxFox - Ah the eloquance of those words. I never knew Hidelberg could produce such diplomatic phrases. :grin: :wink2:

#28 mjkst27


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Posted 14 August 2004 - 12:39 PM

In the minds of the PNAC boyz, as long as the 4 military bases get built in Iraq, it's ALL GOOD. Oil could forever cease to flow out of Iraq. ALL GOOD. All civilian women and children could be slaughtered or worse, suffer deleterious effects of DU. ALL GOOD. Oil for Euros? al Sadr as new dictator? ALL GOOD. Just get those bases up and running.

Here's an article from last November discussing this angle

Someone also posted a William Rivers Pitt article from truthout.org the other day. Pitt says he was discussing Iraq with a photojournalist who had returned to the US. The basic message was that the purpose of the US military's presence in Iraq was to protect the convoys ferrying construction materials to build the bases. Whatever happens to the Iraqi people at large, good or bad, it's ALL GOOD for the neoconzi's.

#29 Butterfield 8

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 12:40 PM

Pete Peterson "Running on Empty" book on the deficit - on C Span 2 now


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Posted 14 August 2004 - 12:44 PM

I do not have the details on the new OVERTIME LAW. The whole effort is
one to continue the rape of labor.

Cuts must always begin at the top.....in government or business. :rolleyes:

Leadership roles must replace the greedship rolls for meaningful re-form (opposed to reform) to take place.

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