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#1 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 07:23 AM

I hope all of our Floridian Stoolies have weathered the storms well. Hi Hat please check in, we would like to know if your test run of gerbil powered generation went ok.

I don't know about you, but I'm confused as to the extent of the damage. If I watch the weather channel, I get the impression of little damage. If I watch the "fair and balanced GOP run Fox" I get the impression that Iraq looks good compared to Florida. I hear figures of 15 or 20 billion in damages tossed around by the Florida Gubner, Jebb (get away from there, Californy is the place you ought to be - ok I know it was Jed, but it just felt right) and the state insurance commissioner. Photo ops abound for Shrubco. Maybe the Weather Channel had all of their reporters in the wrong places to see the worst of it. I really don't know.

Scam-o-rama week might have started early on Friday afternoon. I believe the matrix script will be early week weakness followed by the traditional moon shot later in the week.

Wonder how the Gurgle IPO will end up? A week or two ago I wondered whether it might not end up being a market breaker. Nothing like extra inventory when the buyers seem in short supply. Trim tabs is showing a small outflow, 640 million, from the funds during what is normally a fairly strong inflow period. The brokerages and Knight Trading are reporting falling trading volumes also. Could the smoldering Sheeple burst into a firestorm of "run away"? In reality 95+% will ride to the bottom, doing their best deer in the headlights imitation, but even a small percentage of the trillions in funds is a lot of dough to leave a market. Certainly a few of them have learned to ignore the borkers - "you invest for the long term while we get the wingohockingmoyamensing out"

Speculation is pushing oil pretty hard - maybe too hard. A sharp drop could happen if the specs get spooked. China is surely stock piling all they can store and I'm aware they've been building additional storage recently, though I think a lot of that isn't completed. I don't think there's too much question that China has been acting a lot like pre WWII Japan in it's consumption curve. How much is real and how much is pre-war stockpiling?

The more I see of Kerry responding to questions and missing opportunities to take a swipe at Shrubco, the more I see "Loser". There's no question the race is his to lose and his strategists seem to be taking every opportunity to do just that. They also seem to be making every attempt to keep the light focused on Kerry and keeping Edwards in the back ground. I think Kerry fears being over shadowed by Edwards - and rightfully so. Kerry seems as plodding and confused as the Shrub, but without the confidence and the smirk. Where's the typical "I can talk louder and right over anybody" liberal? MIA

Ron Paul, as an independent, in 2008 - if we make it that far.

Brian, you're right. We bury our trailers, though we prefer to call them condos a-go-go. Our biggest problem is trying to remember where we buried them. That and finding the Easter eggs we hid.

Now remember, no kicking below the belt, no hair pulling and no eye gouging or back stabbing. Let the games begin.

#2 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 08:05 AM

The Fed does not today "control" money creation. It has, however, been too successful in encouraging lending excess and inciting leveraged speculation. Moreover, the Fed has nurtured the mushrooming of the U.S. financial sector, and with it the "intermediation" of Trillions of risky loans into perceived safe and liquid "money" and Credit instruments. But we need, today, to be very cautious when it comes to extrapolating the Fed's capacity for inciting both lending, speculating, and intermediation - the commanding forces underpinning today's key inflationary manifestations. When financial crisis arrives - and de-leveraging and disintermediation commence - the Fed will certainly aggressively expand their balance sheet and incorporate "unconventional measures." But years of runaway systemic excess (not to mention dollar vulnerability) leave the Fed today a rather atrophied and timid little player confronting A Big & Nasty Credit Bubble. The Fed will be surprisingly impotent in ameliorating bursting Bubbles, and the notion of "pushing on a string" will become topical.

Doug Noland

#3 Bastiat

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 08:10 AM

Oh dear, oh dear, here we go again.
------------------------------------
Iraq Halts Oil Exports from Main Pipeline
Saturday August 14, 3:06 am ET

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Authorities have halted oil export flows from the main pipeline in southern Iraq after intelligence showed a rebel militia could strike infrastructure, an oil official said Saturday.

The shutdown kept loadings at southern oil terminals at half their normal level, undermining the government's effort to raise revenue as oil prices hit record highs, partly in response to the instability in Iraq.

"The situation in Basra is bad. Management ordered the pipeline shut late yesterday," said the South Oil Company official, who declined to be named.

"Very few people showed up to work again today. The feeling is it is not wise to challenge Sadr's followers."

He was referring to the uprising led by anti U.S.-cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose Mehdi Army militia is fighting U.S-led forces in central and southern Iraq.

The Mehdi Army has vowed to attack oil facilities in response to a U.S. offensive on Muslim Shi'ite city of Najaf.

The instability and damage to the main export pipeline in the south from sabotage has disrupted Iraq's oil exports through the past five days.

The flow slows again

#4 depends

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 08:12 AM

This little chart stays on the sell side.

Another day with anemic volume. The buy/sell ratio went up - but only slightly and remains at a low level.

But for the news Tampa would not have known that such a storm as Charlie had happened with no more than a gentle breeze and light rainfall here. Elsewhere, shredded houses and lost lives tell of the uncertainties of life.

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#5 HiHat

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 08:56 AM

yobob..,,..All...........Back up and running here in Sarasota County. What can be said
and observed from this end, is that it could have been a lot worse, for here and other
big West Coast Florida cities.

The eye came on land dead on in Charlotte Harbor......a rather large bay, not highly populated..Captiva Island, had about 160 houses wash out into Gulf.

The swath of destruction is fairly substantial for those in path. The path taken inland
is rural.........and winds diminished down to 85..................

We got out with minor flooding...200' driveway under water..etc. No structural damage
to either house. New house shell that we evacuated to had water blown in under doors and roof vent a ridge leaked. So, i be happy overall.

The most poignant drama of the ordeal transpired, when after warning her not too, my girlfriend behind my back attempted to load the cat in a car carriar to evacuate with us to other house. Well it clawed her hand to ribbons.

As she stood slumped and sobbing over the kitchen sink staunching the bleeding.....i
managed to slip in a "i told you to leave that wingohockingmoyamensinging cat alone"

All things are now calm.......and my spirits are so lifted that i am going to Best Buy
and get a new mini-mouse for the laptop.

#6 DrStool

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 09:36 AM

What them florida folks got to learn is to dig them trailers into the ground like Yo Bobby and the folks do in idahoo and then when the sun is out you cook Burgers on the top well your beer stays Cold underground! ;)

Sorry B4, the water table is at 2 feet.

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#7 brian4

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 09:39 AM

Doc- :lol: :lol: -Glad to hear all are safe-a horrible time for everyone in its path lets hope that is it for the season. ;)

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 10:02 AM

It seems as though we may lose Iraq this weekend. The standoff with Al Sadr in Najaf is going his way, and supporters are streaming to his support by the thousands as our troops are left exposed and confused about their mission. This could go very, very bad.

#9 machinehead

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 10:04 AM

As she stood slumped and sobbing over the kitchen sink staunching the bleeding.....i
managed to slip in a "i told you to leave that wingohockingmoyamensinging cat alone"

geez, I hope you accented that quip with a little pinch on her bottom to show you was just goofin' around :lol: :o :huh:

Fleck is openly talking smut about a crash. He doesn't beat around the bush about the cause, either:

Finally, you need a catalyst. Here I think the catalyst is far more powerful now than it was in 1987. At that time, we had an inflation problem building, a belief that the Fed was behind the curve and a falling dollar. The fact that the dollar appeared to be breaking in an uncontrolled manner to the downside in October 1987 was the catalyst that allowed the speculation and the structure to create the implosion we saw.

Today, we not only have a Fed that is behind the curve, but, far more ominously, the Fed is trapped and unable to rescue the market.

The other potential catalyst now, as in 1987: the dollar is (potentially) coming unstuck ... most people do not realize that the decline in the dollar over the last two years has been bigger than the drop leading up to Oct. 19, 1987.


Odds higher than you think

Unlike real goods which are merely priced in dollahs, our hypertrophied financial superstructure is created from dollahs. The dollah is the magical Aladdin's lamp from which Greenspan's lurid Ponzified dreams emerge and take root, in the form of grotesquely gargantuan stock, bond and real estate capitalizations spreading like magic beanstalks across the sky, supported on a ludicrously thin trunk of manufacturing and actual value-added economic activity.

The dollah is gonna hit a wall someday. The stock market doesn't particularly care about the dollah, but the side effects of a dollah crash (rising prices) would crunch P/E ratios hard.

Yes, the dollah is gonna hit a wall, while Al Green sits blissfully behind his desk in the Marriner S. Eccles Building, eyes closed, humming along with Lucinda Williams on his iPod:

This wall is not real
How can it be real
It's only made of concrete and barbed wire

Concrete and barbed wire
Concrete and barbed wire
It's only made of concrete and barbed wire

"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#10 machinehead

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 10:10 AM

Doc- :lol: :lol: -Glad to hear all are safe-a horrible time for everyone in its path lets hope that is it for the season. ;)

I've got bad news for you, Brian.

A potential "Hurricane Earl" is already on deck as a tropical storm, with winds of 50 dollahs a barrel ...

2004 Atlantic Hurricane names
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#11 mjkst27

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 10:11 AM

Posted Image

#12 Bastiat

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 10:17 AM

I used to think this had some value.

Psst. Would I lie to you?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Front Running and Pre-Released Data at the University of Michigan

Commentary provided Paul Hauck, CEO, WhisperNumber.com
One of the most widely cited and watched market sentiment indicator's is the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey. A great deal is taken for granted with this survey since it has established itself within the financial media as a reliable and consistent indicator of monthly consumer sentiment. We hoped that the media would conduct a little 'investigative journalism' on this report and the individuals surrounding the information the University presents. Since we have little to no faith of that happening any time soon, we went ahead and did our homework so that investors can know the truth behind the numbers.

First of all, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment survey is based on telephone interviews with about 300 households around the country on personal finances, business and buying conditions, and is rounded out to 500 by month's end. The data is included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the US Department of Commerce.

Would you consider a survey of 500 individuals a statistically valid sample? Apparently it is for the University of Michigan surveys, but a few years back when WhisperNumber.com collected data from 500 investors for a number of surveys, both Reuters and Crapvision vehemently questioned the validity of data based on such a 'small' number. (Current WhisperNumber sentiment data is based on a minimum of 1400 individual investors participating in its twice-monthly sentiment surveys.)

#13 purdymouth

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 10:21 AM

It seems as though we may lose Iraq this weekend. The standoff with Al Sadr in Najaf is going his way, and supporters are streaming to his support by the thousands as our troops are left exposed and confused about their mission. This could go very, very bad.

Oh yeah, and we dropped some bombs on Samarra...

... and Hilla has joined in the uprising...

Posted Image

Posted Image

#14 fxfox

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 10:55 AM

It seems as though we may lose Iraq this weekend. The standoff with Al Sadr in Najaf is going his way, and supporters are streaming to his support by the thousands as our troops are left exposed and confused about their mission. This could go very, very bad.

never ever will the US troops iraq. They simply cant. Their real mission is to stay in the region because of saudi-arabia. Iraq is a side effect, what really counts is saudi-arabia.

The day the house of sauf fails, US troops will march into saudi-arabia. And if it is necessary the whole country will be erased from the surface. The arbas should be carefull: They can play their game to a certain extend, if th3ey overextend it, they have to face consequences, of which they better dont think about yet.

One shoildnt be naive: This aint Vietnam. Much mcuh mucccchhhhhhh more is at cost here. Beleive me, the west wont fail because of some shitty bearded nutcases somewhere in the middle east. If they go too far, they will get their Hiroshima, only 10 times worse.
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#15 machinehead

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Posted 14 August 2004 - 10:58 AM

It seems as though we may lose Iraq this weekend.  The standoff with Al Sadr in Najaf is going his way, and supporters are streaming to his support by the thousands as our troops are left exposed and confused about their mission.  This could go very, very bad.

Oh yeah, and we dropped some bombs on Samarra...

... and Hilla has joined in the uprising...

Posted Image

Posted Image

Professor Juan Cole observes:

Meanwhile, there were large demonstrations in Iraq and throughout the Middle East on Friday protesting the US assault on Najaf. 

Protesters at a large rally in Diwaniya occupied and attacked the office of Iyad Allawi's party, the Iraqi Naitonal Accord.  There were also big crowds at Baghdad, Kufa and Samawa.  Even strongly Sunni Fallujah had a demonstration in favor of him [Sadr]. At Hilla, the Polish troops are surrounded at the police station and may need the Aemricans to come rescue them.  The big crowds chanted, "Long live Sadr. Falluja stands by Najaf against America."


http://www.juancole.com/

Bush's hamhanded gunboat diplomacy has achieved what previous Iraqi leaders could not: unifying the Sunnis and the Shiites.

Way to go, f***brain. Have another pretzel.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss





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