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Stripper On The Flagpole

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#91 BAREister


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Posted 10 January 2003 - 04:09 AM

so in a 'short' (pardon the hereticual use of parlance u true bears, yew in the following context:) period of time certain Stoolies have gone from being bearish, to covering shorts and going partially long, to talking now about 1000 point up days and blow-offs, have we?


o ye of little faith?

Even that ASStro guy w a FUR in his name is predicting a very sharp up move, possibly into the 21st.

no. make that twentyFURst ™

we are now, y'all, in the TwentyFURst Century!!! LOL

And don'tchoo FURgedit!

well, we'll C about all this boolish apprehension.

ONE THING AT A TIME. Lettuce get out of this trading DErange, FURst.

HRFF guesses that HAYWIRE THEORY will keep a lid on all these bullish scenarios and we will continue to MUDDLE about until something BAD happens to knock the mkt to the downside out of it.

And, as a highly placed US official said tonight (see BARE's post in LOB) w re to Iraq: "Time is running out."

There won't be any 1000 point rally w a war looming GUESSES this observer.

If "time is running out" clearly implying a timetable long prepared for launching hostilities, all this talk of postponing them of late is just that: "jaw-jaw"
They are much more interested in "war-war".

Now Ms Mkt can do ANYTHING and often does in the WORST way at the WORST time(s) FUR the mostest. The bulls clearly want to jam this thing. But they've made NO real headway, so FUR.

one thing at a time, y'all.

whoizzit who likes The Doors here?

"Take it easy, baby!
"Take it as it comes!
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger


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Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:11 AM

China can only survive as a low cost exporter, and they need us worse than we need them...

Disagree. China's much-misunderstood strategy of "exporting deflation" is actually designed to subsidize long-term domestic capacity utilization growth at the expense of short-term lower profits. People forget that unlike Japan, China's domestic market is potentially unlimited, and in the long-run, it will NOT be dependent on a "low-cost export strategy" like Japan or Korea, but instead, will become increasingly reliant on growth fueled by domestic consumption.

So true!! Well said!! I look at the "exporting of deflation" as a
byproduct to China's entry into the World Trade Organisation.
It will hurt the bottom line like the introduction of the internet.
Even though China has declared economic war on the rest of
the world by exporting in a 100 and 1 ways, the internet and
Chinese products is great for those of us who are still privileged
to hold a job. But let's face it, the peg with the USD has to be
broken. Let the market decide how much the Renminbi is worth.


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Posted 10 January 2003 - 08:01 AM

Vesselin:  Heard a rumor that you can get the Bullish Percent index on sectors. Can you find one on the SOX?

Mark, I covered this question in my forum. Basically, it's just a rumor. Yes, it can be computed, of course - and I have shown how - but there is no site charting it and it wouldn't be of much use anyway, since the SOX has only 17 members and the BPI would be too "spiky".

NYSE Record New Highs Percent is now .92, one of the highest readings ever. Does anyone know if this reading came in consistently at this level during the 1999 - 2000 mania runs which lasted for weeks and weeks?

Is this what you mean?

Posted Image

It is certainly not the highest reading ever. It's not even the highest reading for the past year. And you can see where it has been during the time you specified. The chart doesn't tell me anything interesting, I'm afraid.


#94 MaxxPain


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Posted 10 January 2003 - 08:15 AM

I think it's Oh Oh Oh VER, OVER! The new bull is finished.

I looked at many charts, and to my untrained eye they look sick. There are so many companies that really have went nowhere for months even with all the "GOOD" news.

Yesterday's rally didn't even break the high on Monday. Sell Mortimer Sell

#95 Jimbo


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Posted 10 January 2003 - 08:51 AM



Now in the old bull days to justify that p/e you needed 40% projected growth in sales/profits for the next year.

Is this going to happen?


CISCO is a classic stranded growth stock.

There are a lot of stranded growth stocks that will soon become value stocks.

They become so courtesy of the magic of a bear market.

The Growth versus Value debate is a false debate.

This is an ex growth market.

Growth stocks have ceased to be growth stocks, but the market is still valueing them as if they were!!!

Now what will happen first:

Growth resumes (unlikey)

Or the market startes valueing them correctly.
(Happening now at an exchange near you)

#96 MaxxPain


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Posted 10 January 2003 - 09:10 AM

IBM, "Big Poo", looks very strong however. I don't understand it but I'm staying away from that one.

#97 Jimbo


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Posted 10 January 2003 - 09:50 AM


B4 The QQV and VIX move in lockstep.

Which is no suprise as the NAZ 100 would exhibit much the same behaviour as the S&P 100.

VIX now at 26 getting close.

Ideally would like to see it go below 20.

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