Stripper On The Flagpole
96 replies to this topic
Posted 09 January 2003 - 06:52 PM
9000 Dow is the magnet... bounced hard off it on 12/2.... How will it act this time?
Posted 09 January 2003 - 06:53 PM
Well, my hand was pushed away yesterday but full groping resumed today. Still holding 'em. (BEAS, ESRX, DISH, QLGC, VRNT)
Simply amazing. Stops are close and riding em as far as I can.
Suspect we are close in price but still have a ways to go in time, perhaps even to next fib date cluster mid Feb which syncs with Doc's prediction.
Til then swing both ways is my game plan. Short the worst, dong the best and make money on both ends concurrently. Just like a u-shaped min/max thermometer. Each up/down market swing pushes the marker (profit) higher and higher on each side. Market direction? Who cares! The market can't figure out where it wants to go and neither can I.
When in Rome...
Posted 09 January 2003 - 07:00 PM
I waited for the pullback as well and I still worry about a sharp sell-off. Since gold broke above $330, it generated a lot of interest. Many of the short-term sentiment indicators in the gold market are registering extremely bullish readings. That's usually a sign that the market is on the verge of a short-term drop. But my experience has been that as I have lightened up on the miners, hoping for a lower entry point, they've taken off instead and I've had to chase them.
But here's the beauty of the HUI and XAU. They are in a bull market and if you only stay in long enough you'll come out a winner. The metal itself is in the early stage of a major bull market, with many gold stocks acting very well. This is very clear when you look at the long-term monthly charts. This is a major upside reversal, not some flash in the pan. A mistake that most people make with gold is watching it day to day and being shaken out by all sorts of little wiggles. The way to make money in a major bull market is to buy and hold. Some of us like to buy upside breakouts, others, like to buy pullbacks to the EMA, but once aboard, you really have to hold on for the long haul.
I currently hold GG, GLG, MDG, GFI, and HMY. I will stay long and reweight them if one or two do much better than the others. I've found that to be a good strategy. You reweight overbought positions that have run up fast to other stocks that have lagged. Eventually the laggards catch up with the frontrunners and you reweight again.
Posted 09 January 2003 - 07:03 PM
I highly suspect like Fart that Dow 9000 is in the cards. If 8800 violated we're talking wave 2© up off the Oct lows into Dow 8700-9300 area, tops. Should definitely be the ceiling.
Holding my Supermodels as hedge. I sleep well at night.
Posted 09 January 2003 - 07:13 PM
rog, I did a Google search today on "stock bond correlation." It turned up some interesting papers. The positive correlation between stock and bond prices which many of us thought was permanent existed from 1967 to 1998 ... the inflationary years.
Inflation (once recognized) hurts all paper assets, so stocks and bonds prosper or suffer together. Deflation (or the fear thereof) is a different story: poison for stocks, red meat for Treasury bonds. A decoupling occurs.
A telling proof is that the stock-bond correlation went negative in Japan in 1992, and has stayed there. The rest of the rich countries followed in 1998.
If this continues, then today's Treasury bloodbath and the pressure on Treasury auctions which you foresee should go hand-in-hand with the Bubble II rally ... at least till gold smokes up to $500, and inflation fears take over. Or if Bubble II dies young and gold plunges back to $250, then Treasurys get a second go in Depression II.
What am I saying? That the conventional wisdom that gold and stocks are inversely correlated was also a transient, Sixties to Nineties thing? Yes. Gold and stocks rallied together in 1933-34. And they're doing it again now. The HUI and the SPX are joined at the hip. Both crave pricing power for their product. A weak dollar helps, and may actually be bullish until dollar decline turns into headlong collapse.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Posted 09 January 2003 - 07:38 PM
Mark, the 1000 point Dow upday is always a possibility. As unlikely as it seems everyone should put it in their mind as something that could happen.
Now is the perfect time. Stamp of approval for the attack(I refuse to call it a war) and the administrations other various postures. How? I don't have a clue, except for the usual PPT.
The refi thing could be a seasonal glitch, as the Doc said. Let's wait to see if it's a trend reversal. That said, best to figure on the worst case (Noland syle) scenario.
War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
could burn down
We jammin still
Full Extreme Ultimate Rejects
Posted 09 January 2003 - 07:47 PM
Agree with Soup - stocks are still generally overvalued, especially tech. Does that mean they will come down anytime soon? Maybe, maybe not.
I also believe that alot of dividend yielding utility and energy stocks are undervalued on a relative basis. Take a look at the move and volume in El Paso today(EP), still yields 10%, still speculative, but might be breaking out. Corporate bonds have been performing exceptionally well, especially in the energy sector. JMHO. From this point forward, I will ONLY listen to Bill Gross. Too bad it took me 3 years to figure that out.
Posted 09 January 2003 - 07:48 PM
So many so bullish. Anything is possible, but to see the vast majority of the folks being proven correct is high risk low return,
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg
Posted 09 January 2003 - 07:55 PM
This is the kind of thing you look for on a blowoff top.... usually, a dead giveaway... at least in a bear market... Let's hope for Maria's orgasm on the open...
Posted 09 January 2003 - 08:03 PM
Fart, You have been looking for Maria to have the orgasm
but she is so slow to it . . . but she will . . . and I know this.
Yes, my friend, she will show her ass soon, and it will be
so sweet and for all to see too.
Posted 09 January 2003 - 08:05 PM
Here is a link to some sector BPIs. I tried $BPISOX and it was not avaliable
Posted 09 January 2003 - 08:06 PM
Sweef, your chart of the SPX looks like the bearish symmetrical triangle here
courtesy of http://www.chartpatterns.com
Wouldn't that be sweet that the next kiss of the upper trendline causes the SPX to collapse? I'm still thinking 9400 will be tops on the DOW to fulfill this chart's symmetry.
courtesty of http://www.financialsense.com
T & A charts from last night's Mark to Market thread worked out great again today. Let's hope it continues...
Posted 09 January 2003 - 08:24 PM
Extra good take on a morass of a market. Much thanks Mark.
And thanks to Machine cranium and all who are willing to WAG on this dog.
We have been watching for the unraveling for some time but instead keep seeing bubble after bubble after bubble. Wonder if NCEN will see 33 again. Will BAC top 75? EBAY to new high in 03. Itís all good fun if you live through it.
Posted 09 January 2003 - 08:28 PM
I'm always, always amazed not by the markets but by the participants in the MARKETS. A 1,000 point up move Mark-not a HOPE IN HELL! Go and look at the rallies we have had from the TOP-each rally has been more explosive-yes-but craps out quicker than the one that preceded it. That's why we have had 3 successive down years and will now have a 4th. I have often said in my postings "we are in the best of times" because the markets are still in the stair step down stage not the downhill sled ride to hell-but that is about to change- 9000+ or- should be all she wrote 940-955 SPX ditto by then everyone and their dog will be in and the sled ride begins. Having said that we don't have to go to 9000 or 955 we can technically crap out anytime on the way-Bernie Schaeffer in an editorial today predicted 6000-6500-shortly as have others with good track records. Every day the market goes up buried in the news is stuff like this-AOL to take charge of 10 Billion dollars due to AOL deterioration-Gm announces pensions underfunded by 19.2 Billion dollars-360 networks emerges from bankruptcy now primarily owned by JPM and others ( a bank derivative monster now forced thru bad loans to run companies-lovely) 360 networks announces 101 million dollar lawsuit against Nortel for alleged preferential transfers of cash and equipment by 360 to NT just prior to chapter 11. Edison International announces 35 Million dollar 4th 1/4 chge. That is only part of what happened today-the debt will NEVER be paid-Harrahs and Mirage and all of Vegas are hemmoraging money. Nope by Feb.7 the sled will be rolling. The Markets-I covered my SPX puts at the open for a decent profit and will re-institute my 100% short position as this beast runs up-the last TIME I was 100% short was just prior to the top-on GOLD-no hand wringing necessary just buy and hold (well said Pitbull) Trade Safe!
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