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B4 The Bell Frieday August 6


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 07:16 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

Great discussion of technical market trends and issues last night in this forum. Adding that to Doc's regular analysis, one can only come to the conclusion we have more to go on the downside from the top the market hit about July 1.

Think today will be a good day for astute traders.

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In a story I don't exactly agree with, the NY Times says long term unemployment has overly influenced public perceptions of job availability.

WHEN the July employment numbers are released today, the Bush administration will hail them as proof that the economy is doing well, and it will have a point. But despite rapid job growth this year, many Americans continue to believe there is a job crisis.

Why is that? Some blame an overly negative press, but the real answer may be found by delving into the statistics. New numbers from the Labor Department show that the job downturn of 2001 and 2002 was surprisingly damaging to experienced workers, particularly older ones.


http://www.nytimes.c...s/06norris.html

More refinery problems:
A fire on Thursday shut a gasoline-producing unit at BP Plc's 470,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery in Texas, the third-biggest plant in the United States. The flash fire was quickly extinguished, but it was unclear how long the unit would be shut.

http://www.reuters.c...63&pageNumber=1


Good trading! ;)

#2 Bearman

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 07:42 AM

If this don't scare the Hell out of you :o

http://www.gillespie...7-918720796.pdf

:ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r:

#3 DrStool

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 07:48 AM

http://www.washingto...?referrer=email

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) rushed to John F. Kerry's defense Thursday, condemning a new ad claiming the Democratic presidential nominee lied about his military record and betrayed his Vietnam comrades by protesting the war.

McCain, who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam, called on President Bush to condemn the ad, which was financed in part by a major Republican Party donor in Texas....

In an interview with the Associated Press, McCain called the ad "dishonest and dishonorable." Asked if the White House was behind it, McCain said: "I hope not, but I don't know. But I think the Bush campaign should specifically condemn the ad."


Of course, the lying shitbags refused to do so, but instead changed the subject and called on Kerry to reign in his soft money ad spending.

Goebbels would be proud.

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#4 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 07:54 AM

Hysterically, final bottoms in stock markets end when the stocks sell for net hard asset value or slightly below. The last time I saw those calculations for the Dow it implied a bottom of under 1,000. I seriously doubt if that number has changed much in the last few years, and indeed may be worsening due to pension liabilities, not to mention that thanks to Gee Mr Wizard accounting it is my firm belief that liabilities/debt in general are understated.

I'd guess that the same calculations on the Nazzdog would yield a price of oh maybe negative 200. :lol:

In trying to make sense of the Commerce dept data over the last few months it seems to me they're getting sloppy and or blatant in their lying.
Sales keep falling yet the orders and production keep rising - yeah that makes perfect sense to me. The retail sector in general is losing volume which is being masked by incremental price increases causing revenue numbers to be shown as rising or flat. But you see each widget must produce it's share of the fixed costs and as volume declines that percentage of widget revenue rises which does, class, anyone? Yes that's right Jimmy, profit falls.

The normal reactions are to a)raise prices, B) cut costs, or c)lower prices. Raising prices is the best course, but in the current still capacity glutted market place, it is not an option for many. Cutting costs must come from the variable side and there probably isn't a lot of fat left there other than in the heads of the board members. What fat is still in place is likely the white collar bloat built up from the 90s. Lowering prices is often done in an attempt to increase volume so that the fixed costs are spread over a larger base, but at the same time the lower price cuts margins, so it's typically at best a running in place move. The automakers are prime examples if you discount their financial arms.

Well I wonder how many phony jobs the liars in the White House have decreed to be issued today. The consensus is, I believe as MH stated about 240K. I think they'll stick to the script pretty close. Too many and they lose the bond handle, too few and stocks drop. I don't think they were counting on yesterday's market action however, so maybe the lights were on all night in the White House trying to remove the crayon numbers already scribbled in.

The credit report is also due out today and it might give some interesting clues as to the sheeples plight. Borrowing more but buying less isn't good. But then if they are borrowing less (i.e. trying to pay down debt) that's not macro good either, but bully for the sheeple. Not a market mover but a good little view into the living room window.

Oil up or a retreat? Personally I don't think there's all that much hedgehog or terror premium in the current price. Analsycyst seem to think oil should be between $30 and $35. I'm thinking that the "natural" price of oil is probably pretty close to $40 right now. OPEC will increase production by 1.5 mbpd. Yeah and pigs are great at executing sophisticated aerial feats too. Looks to me like ME oil production has hit a wall and any attempts to push past that wall could cause a major problem in their fields in terms of damage. Hubberts peak is real and I think it's now.

I'm guessing a full court press to lift stocks today. Will the bears get scared off again?

Great calls as usual by our Dudley Do-Right, Brian4. I really think we should chip in and buy him a Mountie uniform for any forthcoming photo ops. :lol:

#5 DrStool

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 07:55 AM

Bearishness and Despondency

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 08:00 AM

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#7 Bearman

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 08:02 AM

when I hear the name John McCain I think of feingold :angry:

The attack on the First Ammendment :angry:

Freedom of poltical speech.

What dont you understand about free?

#8 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 08:08 AM

Quick question for those that follow central bank action in Britain.
I understand they have raised rates 3 times now including an increase this week. The bubble in housing in Britain challenges the insanity on this side of the pond yet from what Ive heard demand has remained strong as well as prices. Is this true? And has there been three rate increases?

Great Feed report again Doc
Treasury auctioning 51000 MILLION in notes next week. 29000 MILLION DUE and 22000 MILLION to run the country. With further down in the market they are going to need some serious help. Those in POWER must be very concerned with the brewing powder keg.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#9 GregFokker

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 08:16 AM

Quick question for those that follow central bank action in Britain.
I understand they have raised rates 3 times now including an increase this week. The bubble in housing in Britain challenges the insanity on this side of the pond yet from what Ive heard demand has remained strong as well as prices. Is this true? And has there been three rate increases?

Great Feed report again Doc
Treasury auctioning 51000 MILLION in notes next week. 29000 MILLION DUE and 22000 MILLION to run the country. With further down in the market they are going to need some serious help. Those in POWER must be very concerned with the brewing powder keg.

How will the debt or equity markets have a chance when the boomers start retiring and withdrawing en masse?

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


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Posted 06 August 2004 - 08:17 AM

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#11 Guest_libertas_*

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 08:22 AM

Quick question for those that follow central bank action in Britain.
I understand they have raised rates 3 times now including an increase this week. The bubble in housing in Britain challenges the insanity on this side of the pond yet from what Ive heard demand has remained strong as well as prices. Is this true? And has there been three rate increases?

Great Feed report again Doc
Treasury auctioning 51000 MILLION in notes next week. 29000 MILLION DUE and 22000 MILLION to run the country. With further down in the market they are going to need some serious help. Those in POWER must be very concerned with the brewing powder keg.

There have been five increases since November.

Housing prices are off about 5% from their peak. Demand remains strong as far as I can tell.

#12 Hiding Bear

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 08:25 AM

Great rant yobob.

I won't believe any employment number over -0-, even if the market does. How can retail sales, where many jobs come from, be declining in July yet producing more jobs?

#13 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 08:25 AM

When an email notification is sent out to my outlook express by the anals.."stool pigeons wire message"... Can one just hit reply through outlook to respond to the sender directly?
TIA
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#14 machinehead

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 08:29 AM

when I hear the name John McCain I think of feingold :angry:

The attack on the First Ammendment :angry:

Freedom of poltical speech.

What dont you understand about free?

Please ... the official name of that "law" is McShame-Slimegold. :D

The "gag period" for citizens kicks in around Sep. 2, I believe.

Can we still hang a sign on our fence? :o
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#15 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 06 August 2004 - 08:29 AM

Quick question for those that follow central bank action in Britain.
I understand they have raised rates 3 times now including an increase this week. The bubble in housing in Britain challenges the insanity on this side of the pond yet from what Ive heard demand has remained strong as well as prices. Is this true? And has there been three rate increases?

Great Feed report again Doc
Treasury auctioning 51000 MILLION in notes next week. 29000 MILLION DUE and 22000 MILLION to run the country. With further down in the market they are going to need some serious help. Those in POWER must be very concerned with the brewing powder keg.

There have been five increases since November.

Housing prices are off about 5% from their peak. Demand remains strong as far as I can tell.

FIVE Wow...So much for 3 steps and a stumble.. Stock market hasnt really reacted .
Are they as creative in financing motgages as in the States?
TIA
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson





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