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B4 The Bell Tuezelday August 3


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#61 machinehead

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:02 PM

FOR SOME REASON CNBS JUST ALLOWED PRECHTER TO DECLARE:

"GET ALL OF YOUR ASSETS INTO CASH OR CASH EQUIVALENTS AND GET THEM INTO THE STRONGEST, MOST FINANCIALLY SECURE BANK YOU CAN FIND"

If he was REALLY bearish (like yobob), he would have said, "Get your assets into non-digital form, and stay the hell away from banks."

Seriously -- with reserve requirements slashed to zero on demand deposits and all risk centralized at the Fed -- there ARE no "strong banks."
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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#62 Hiding Bear

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:18 PM

FOR SOME REASON CNBS JUST ALLOWED PRECHTER TO DECLARE:

"GET ALL OF YOUR ASSETS INTO CASH OR CASH EQUIVALENTS AND GET THEM INTO THE STRONGEST, MOST FINANCIALLY SECURE BANK YOU CAN FIND"

If he was REALLY bearish (like yobob), he would have said, "Get your assets into non-digital form, and stay the hell away from banks."

Seriously -- with reserve requirements slashed to zero on demand deposits and all risk centralized at the Fed -- there ARE no "strong banks."

Although I didn't see him, I suspect that Prechter was presenting his PG rated version of his message for sheeple TV. He is pretty close to yobob1 and Hypertiger in what he expects from the financial system.

My biggest worry as a long term investor is how will I hold onto my savings during the next banking crisis. People shrugged off a Wall Street banking/broker holiday after 9/11 because of the shock effect. The next sudden bank holiday will likely occur suddenly after a mutli-trillion$ derivitive failure or dollar collapse and won't be accepted so easily. Getting money out of bank/broker then will be a problem.

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:23 PM

FOR SOME REASON CNBS JUST ALLOWED PRECHTER TO DECLARE:

"GET ALL OF YOUR ASSETS INTO CASH OR CASH EQUIVALENTS AND GET THEM INTO THE STRONGEST, MOST FINANCIALLY SECURE BANK YOU CAN FIND"

If he was REALLY bearish (like yobob), he would have said, "Get your assets into non-digital form, and stay the hell away from banks."

Seriously -- with reserve requirements slashed to zero on demand deposits and all risk centralized at the Fed -- there ARE no "strong banks."

AS HE WAS ALREADY SPEWING WHAT MANY WOULD CONSIDER TO BE OUTLANDISHLY INSANE BLATHER ("WE'VE JUST BEEN IN AN EXTENDED BEAR MARKET BOUNCE AND THE HIGH HAS ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND IT'S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE AND YOU SHOULD GET INTO CASH...ETC.), I CAN UNDERSTAND WHY HE WOULD NOT GO ONE STEP FURTHER AND TELL EVERYONE THAT THE BANKING SYSTEM WAS GOING TO ENTIRELY COLLAPSE AS WELL.

HE'S GOT TO SAVE SOMETHING FOR HIS NEXT APPEARANCE...RIGHT?

ANY BETS ON WHEN THEY ALLOW HIM TO APPEAR AGAIN?

I'M NOT MEANING TO SHOUT WITH THE CAPS...JUST IN THE MIDST OF A DOCUMENT THAT REQUIRES IT.

#64 Hiding Bear

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:24 PM

The Fed took about $6B or so out of the repo pool today. They may want to tighten the Fed funds market a little to make way for the next rate hike next week.
After that, I am still assuming they will go back to their policy of sleath monetary easing.

I envision the market having a difficult time advancing this week, and may still fall. But I also think that there will not be much to be made on the short side until next week.

#65 Hypertiger

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:27 PM

Single biggest reason for the fall of Rome...They played games when game time was over...Game time is over

The real issues are not being addressed at all...

For decades...

An economic system based on fractional reserve banking gets weaker the longer it is in operation...The terminal phase or reaching of maximum potential can be identified by widespread canibalization...Without new conquests the empire begins eating itself faster and faster...

Previous disturbances which were easily shruged off turn into death blows...

We are officially in the terminal phase...There are a few months to a year left until the economic uglyness which is currently beyond the general population to comprehend will lead to wild cornered animal stage followed by an onslaught of massive shockwaves of supreme misery that at first gain in intensity then get less and less until bedrock bottom is reached...the dull roar of oblivion...

Seeing is believeing...My best guess is that the realization that the dream is over will not be acknowledged until a majority of the population is running around in rags in crumbling ruins...

The top is the problem...Unfortunately it is the bottom who gets the blame...It took at least 1000+ years for the top to accept the blame for the fall of Rome...I see absolutely nothing which shows that this time will be different...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#66 threadbare

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:29 PM

Plunger, I wonder about a pull out from Iraq, if the U.S can get Russia onboard. Do you think the U.S and Russia are pondering a long term strategic alliance to control Middle East and subdue China, at the same time?

Spengler--Asia Times--When Grozny Comes to Fallujah

In exchange for a troop presence in Iraq, Russia would obtain a free hand in dealings with the countries of the former Soviet Union. It would gain leverage against a weakening Turkey in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

America's squeamishness in the face of large-scale civilian casualties mystifies the Russians, who know about such things. The remnants of the Chechen resistance have few friends, even among Arab governments. The General Assembly of the United Nations remained mute over the Chechen dead when Russia razed Grozny in 1999, killing or displacing about half of the population of 1 million.

http://www.atimes.co...t/FG27Ak01.html


The specter of $100. per barrrel oil, might provoke some kind of reindustrialization of the U.S along with an attempted oil blockade of China. A
bare minimum requirement to accomplish this miracle, would be a very tight relationship with Russia.

This one is for all the marbles,now. And oil at 100.00, in the minds of strategic planners, removes it from the realm of fanciful empire building to one of survival.

Imagine having to use the wobbly crutch of the Russian military to help you limp along economically. Ironic.

This has nothing to do with the eventual "triumph of Communism" but the emergence of twin fascist powers after the cold war and how they react and interact. It will be interesting to watch Russia shore up its power in the next decade. It's in a good position to undermine China AND the U.S, if it's wiley enough.

The chickens have come home to roost. After WW2, the Nazis fascists helped to destroy communism in the western world, working through various institutions, the Cia foremost among them. The Nazis who went to Russia, helped to undermine capitalism in the Soviet sphere, largely through the KGB. But they were playing one side against the other in a game to eventually dominate and we may see a bit of this play out in the next few years. Of course there are many other factors involved, and it hasn't been a simple linear progression from defeat to dominance. But fascism will rule in the future, partly by design, and partly driven by the reality of diminishing natural resources and increasing population. Useless eaters will not be tolerated.

Sorry for the tangent. Please move this to Polistool if it's too long.

#67 Hiding Bear

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:33 PM

They actually have a media personality preaching at the re-opening of the Statue of Liberty ... the day after a heavy security crackdown.

The cognitive dissonance is brilliantly calculated to short circuit any critical thinking among the sheeple. Security is freedom ... media is government ... ignorance is bliss ... stocks are bargains ... etc

There was a heavy police presence, with some carrying rifles, on a major highway intersection near the Giants stadium in North NJ this morning. This is about 10 miles from both NYC and Newark.

After stopping most truck and some car traffic for an hour or so, the road search crew suddenly left. I am not sure what this kind of hit and miss search has accomplished. We are told to live normal lives but then get stopped by rifle wielding police. Thankfully I do not look like a terrorist so I was not stopped in my car. The Holland Tunnel leading to lower Manhattan is still closed to truck traffic.

#68 An Ant

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:34 PM

I thought industrials not semiconductors would be more affected by rising crude.

:o

#69 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:37 PM

President George W Bush has described the US as a "nation in danger".


For once I agree with him, though for different reasons. ;)

Fortress America story

#70 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:38 PM

I thought industrials not semiconductors would be more affected by rising crude.

:o

Evidently not, huh ;)

#71 Captain's Log

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:39 PM

Someone doesn't like it, hence the early release of a report that said security action was based on information over 3 yrs old.

They evidently don't deem it appropriate for the general public to know that yet. I read it in the WSJ and it's the main story on the BBC today, but I don't see it on CNN or my other measure of mainstream media dissemination, the Detroit News.

The "old news aspect" was discussed on PBR news yesterday morning. It came after the top of the hour news covering the announcements from Govt about increased security levels telling everyone to be scared but go about their normal business.

An intelligence expert came on and called the Office of Homey security "irresponsible". Said it came from intelligence many years old and only said that they have scouted out these targets, not that they had hard plans. He then said the re-action to such events showed your cards to the enemy since they now know how you'll re-act. They may also use it as false signals to wear down your resources.

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:40 PM

Thread:

Great rant.

Yes, I agree that Shrub & Vlad have done the deal. Only one problem. They're both so greedy and arrogant, they actually believe they can pull it off. Iraq is a total hornet's nest, and we have really pissed off the occupants. The ONLY solution to truly controlling the resources below ground is to kill everything above ground. Period.

Arabs of every nation can clearly see what's going on, and if this is the war for control of oil that it appears to be, it's highly unlikely they're going to give it up without an epic battle. If they control it, they sell oil in return for gold and attain a powerful position in the world. If we defeat them, we take their riches, sell oil in dollars and they are servants to the infadels.

This is a war of our own creation, for all the marbles. Bush and Putin are not in charge of the outcome in the land of unintended consequences. Name one thing that has gone has predicted. It's not pretty.

#73 rog

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:44 PM

Repubs going to endorse flat tax at convention this month? Haven't seen any stories out yet but I am hearing alot of chatter from sources in Washington. I'm all for it.

Interesting way from Shrub to reinvigorate his campaign, if its true. Although employment will decrease by 30m accountants, lawyers and banksters whose sole purpose is to circumvent the current tax laws.

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:47 PM

Repubs going to endorse flat tax at convention this month? Haven't seen any stories out yet but I am hearing alot of chatter from sources in Washington. I'm all for it.

Interesting way from Shrub to reinvigorate his campaign, if its true. Although employment will decrease by 30m accountants, lawyers and banksters whose sole purpose is to circumvent the current tax laws.

All of whom are Republican voters.

Not going to happen.

#75 Captain's Log

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:47 PM

I thought industrials not semiconductors would be more affected by rising crude.

:o

Evidently not, huh ;)

Wafer fabs are pretty energy intense with their own substation. Lots of high temp ovens, clean rooms to maintain and pumps for nasty chemicals involved. I'm not sure how much oil impacts cost of wafers but would not be surprised if it now gets to be significant.

The relationship of oil to semiconductors is probably more in end electronic equipment. Much consumer electronics comes from disposible income (gadgets). There are very few end products that semiconductors go into that are essential in life.





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