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The Panic Continues


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#106 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 02:30 AM

For some reason I feel like saying - "Intergenerational Ass-Handing" :P

Think of the big picture. At some point this will turn into a cycle of marginally lower lows and lower highs until at some point a higher high is reached. We will need all the help we can get.

It's us against them boyz...maybe we need a boogeyman to declare war on or something. I heard that works in some cases.

Hey, you can all hate me if that will make things better. :) I will be the designated asshole whipping boy until we can find a real one, okay?

#107 BAREister

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 02:57 AM

guyz, GUYZZZ!!!!

Rodney Dangerfield, Jr., Esq., here.

Cool yurrr JETS!!!

Life is too.....uh....er......ummmwhatizzit?.....ohYEAH!!! SHORT! LOL

HRFF is short (possibly on BRAINS, too, but so WHAT!!!)

No wizecracks, now, Doc... :lol:

Now, listenheer:

HRFF hASS been hangin out on stk mkt related BOREDS since mid 1995 orwuzzit 1994? :o

ANYHOO every now and then on EVERY board he's frequented folks would get TESTY w each UDDER. :rolleyes: And it got to be such that when they did, it often signalled some sort of TURN in the mkt. :shocked In fact, one board, Crystal Ball, orwuzzit Traders-Talk? he thinx, even got to laconically looking at it as an INDICATOR. :unsure: LOLOL

Sew......mebbe we're on the cusp of a move of some consequence in the market given the bickering here of late. B)

Say, if LIFE is too short, The BARE hopes HE isn't too short if a rally enSUES ™. LOL
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#108 BAREister

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 03:19 AM

Speaking of "jets" from the "Jet City", the FT today reportz Airbus this year is expected to eclipse Boeing FUR the FURst time in no. of planes sold.

Look, every state is running a deficit. That's NEVER happened in OUR lifetimes. The consumer is fading....fASSt. Capital investment of any real consequence has ground to a screeching halt. Bankruptcies are rising inexorably. The stock market is breaking NEGATIVE records that stretch back DECADES. The govts of the West are reflating like mad and it's having NO real effect on either equity markets or economies. Debt levels are stratospheric. War clouds gather.
And these idiots on Wall Street think we've commenced a new bull market?

Oh, the FT had an article on the EU's chief diplomatic rep, who says there's a growing rift w Europe and the U.S. Why? Because, he says, Americans, especially Mr Bush, "backed by an influential Israeli lobby" are viewing things increasingly in a lexicon of RELIGION, all black and white, either for or against, good and "evil" (one of The Shrub's favorite and oft-repeated words), a war as opposed to a fight w terrorism. He cites the tendency of Americans to view Yassir Arafat as a terrorist, as an example.

"The moral certainty of a religious America, he argues, is difficult to replicate in a secular Europe."

Leaving aside the irony of those "secular" Europeans, who plunged the world not once, but twice into unspeakable horrors by dint of their ideological fanaticisms and and political rigiditeis, lecturing the US for destabilizing certainties, he does point up our increasing isolation, globally, and that isolation, he says, is extending to those we have long taken FUR granted.

We may not like what he has to say about us or our Israeli friends or his putatively FUR more "secular" point of view, but he is Europe's leading diplomat, namely, Mr. Javier Salona, the European Union's foreign policy chief, and, thereFUR, not to be dismissed lightly.

You would never read such a story in our media, unless it slipped up and printed, in some liberal NE rag like the New York Observer, something by somene oh, say, like Gore Vidal or Nicholas Von Hoffman, FUR ex. One has to roam abroad to find what UDDERS are thinking of us. Even in the redoubts of heretoFUR stalwart allies.

And the FT perhaps THE international "organ" of financial journalism, is hardly a seething hotbed of liberal radicalism. LOL
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#109 Guest_BEARDRECH_*

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 03:22 AM

TE...thanks :lol:

For anyone out there worried (paranoid) there is substantial upside, forget about it. We're hitting the ceiling here.

Last time %sells was this low (%buys this high) was Jan 16, 2002. Massive declines always ensued. :grin:

Sorry Pudlow and Creamer...NO SOUP FOR YOU - NEXT !

HEY PILES WHERE in the h... do u and all the rest of the stoolies get these charts? Some of them look like jackson pollock productions right out og Dr frankensteins basement--They're alive I say they are alive!!!
Quite aesthetic if not completely understandable...

Oh yes even though its like being at a tea social ,with my pinkie finger up, daintily dipping my social tea biscuit into a piping hot cup of ORANGEPEKOE & PEKOE tea, only to have someone signal me that my fly is wide open i l will still admit to buying something called ENDEAVOR (i forget the symbol) a crazy unknown gold mutual fund WOULD SOMEONE PLEASE COMMENT ON THIS AND TELL ME IF ITS A POS OR A STROKE OF INSANITY-- DO I NEED A LOBOTOMY OR WHAT??
beardrech :P :P

#110 Guest_The CoinGuy_*

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 03:28 AM

Hello Fellow Stoolies,

For those who follow Steven Williams "Cycle Pro" Updates. He posted yesterday.

CyclePro

Bare, I see you out there. I went ahead and followed your advice on Roger's Raw Material Fund, doesn't look like there really is any other options out there.

Take care all and have a good night,

The CoinGuy :D

#111 ShamPoo

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 04:51 AM

Butt wait, there’s more!

LOL AOL

Don’t miss this tidbit placed at the convenient time of

“Thursday January 9, 12:54 am ET

AOL Time Warner To Take $10 Billion Charge Over America Online – WP”

#112 Jimbo

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 07:29 AM

BITING THE COBRA PART TWO

Clearly the Cobra for bears is the next big down.

For some on this board it cannot come soon enough.

But the Cobra remains stubbornly resistant to bear growls.

What bears need is a VIX below 25.

It is now 28 only THREE POINTS AWAY.

SOON SOON SOON.

Those making long money - grope quickly.
timoleon

#113

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 08:16 AM

Mark, I know that the market "feels" more volatile - but how do you actually measure it?

If you look at the 14-day Average True Range, or at the Bollinger band width of the COMPX - they have been steadily declining. The volume has peaked long time ago (look at its 60-day EMA):

Posted Image

Looking on a similarly long-term time frame at the $VXN - it seems to be in a downtrend, too - it's 200-dma is significantly off its top...

Posted Image

So, why does the market "feel" more volatile? Is it simply because we have already forgotten what it was during the April 2000 crash?

Regards,
Vesselin

#114

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 08:25 AM

$BPENER recently went above 80% and is now down over 6%

So is there a worthy short amongst energy stocks?
The energy sector ETF - XLE hasn't done much.
Any thoughts?

Yep, XLE definitely looks like an intermediate-term (3-6 months) short. The BPI went overbought, turned down and crossed below its EMA:

Posted Image

A classic signal.

Regards,
Vesselin

#115

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 08:28 AM

With Ameritrade (ex Datek) I note the stop is termed GTC and only lasts 30 days.

Is that right? If so I assume I need to keep track of my stops to make sure that they don't expire?

It depends on your definition of "right". :wink2: Datek sucks, but I have yet to find a better one.

BTW, you'll get an automatic e-mail notification from them when your GTC orders expire - so you'll know to re-establish them.

Regards,
Vesselin

#116 DrStool

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 09:12 AM

At ease. At ease.


I began telling y'all months and months ago that the cycles were lined up for the market to go sideways into February. So what's the big deal. It's following the script perfectly.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#117 buttugly

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 09:45 AM

Vesselin: Thanks. No prizes for guessing that
I have only just started using stops.

If I understand correct, we (shorts) shouldn't be wishing for a
lower VIX. See discussion at Vesselins TA Board.

Jimbo: "Careful what you wish for".

#118 crazy_ate

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Posted 09 January 2003 - 12:00 PM

Observation.

Anyone else ever notice on money.cnn.com that when the market is falling it seems like they only update the quotes every 20 minutes or so, however, when the market is rallying they update like every 2 minutes!!!





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