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The Panic Continues


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#16 brian4

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 08:23 PM

Well-I hope you were all short today it was Kaiching all the way! What happens next is the REALLY BIG QUESTION?? END has made two posts tonite which no one seems to have commented on those posts are truth. As i see it there are 3 possibilities here-1. We have started wave 3 down and will just keep going down and down 2.We are finishing a B wave ( and like END I will cover some of my load at 890 or 904. 3. B is finished and we are heading up to slightly above Mondays highs or even higher-like END my stop is 915 or roughly 8600 on the Dow. So to keep it simple watch for a break of 8630-35 to signal the up move and a break of 8550 to signal a continuation sell. The other night I suggested anyone who tried to game the gold stocks was doomed-they are in a bull market blowoff period. So if you sold on weakness you no doubt were scrambling to get back in today and it may have cost you a buck or two-POG'S move today shows we are in the next leg up and it also shows something is brewing on the world stage we haven't seen yet-no not Iraq that is factored in. Greg this is for you-highlights from a canadian press story dated today-" Paul LeBlanc former Branch manager of General Electric Capital in Cranbrook, B.C. pleaded guilty to fraud over $5,000 for his part in a 29 million dollar fraud scheme that siphoned the money from G.E. Capitals Cranbrook office. As Branch Manager Leblanc was entrusted to sign loans of up to $250,000 without approval from head office"......I love it-these are the light bulb people right-nothing gets by guys like i melt. trade safe!

#17 machinehead

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 08:31 PM

"Remember a couple of months ago we reported how any strung out, partially-employed Hollywood rock and roll punk could buy a top of the line Stratocaster Guitar with no down, no interest, no payments until 2004?"

Yeah. And if the discount borkers want to stay in business, they'd better figure out a way (despite a Federal Reserve reg prohibiting it) to offer punters the ability to buy stocks on margin for zero down, zero percent interest, and zero payments till 2004.

About seven years ago, Al Green quipped in a Fed meeting that "if you want to deflate a bubble, I guarantee you that raising margin requirements will do it." Well Al, if you want to RESTORE a bubble, I guarantee you that CUTTING margin requirements will do it.

Governor Gray Davis and the State of California are depending on you, Al.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#18 Goldmember

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 08:38 PM

10:30 am threw me for a loop when it failed but in retrospect, and the fact that I have much to learn still, enticed me to take another look and SEE. I wouldn't want to be short for the rest of the week. But what the hell do I know, my indicator analysis is called the "Bongicator". Today I changed its water and hopefully it will give better forecasts. :grin:
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#19 sweefraapp

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 08:40 PM

Today sold CALVF, GLG calls, SLGLF. Bid on CSCO puts w/o success. Still long CUSIF, APLL, CSCO puts, IBM puts, FAST puts, HSY puts.

I hope to re-enter PM's before they take off.
Will be averaging in over the next week or so.

#20 buttugly

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 08:43 PM

I will apologize in advance if todays comments are a bit out of LEFT FIELD. I got the fright of my life.
Came home early and thought I had caught my wife
with our gardener. Turns out it was the Swedish backpacker staying with us. I saw this flash of blonde hair and brown skin, in our bathroom.
My heart nearly jumped out of my chest.

Man my gardener is good - if someone could fix his teeth
and improve his English he could be the next big thing.
A cross between Leonardo De Caprio and Antonio Banderas.

I don't know if I should FIRE him or broker a movie deal. :blink:

Personally I am currently infatuated with BPIs.

"Bullish Percent levels that are above 70% are considered overbought, whereas levels below 30% are considered Dover Sole. Strong buy signals occur when the Bullish Percent Index falls below 30% and then reverses up by at least 6%. Conversely, promising sell signals occur when it goes above 70%, and then reverses down by at least 6%".

$BPENER recently went above 80% and is now down over 6%

So is there a worthy short amongst energy stocks?
The energy sector ETF - XLE hasn't done much.
Any thoughts?

#21 sweefraapp

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 08:56 PM

Dollar trying to sneak back down AH.

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#22 PileDriver

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 08:58 PM

for all intents and purposes this load hasn't gone anywhere since the July "panic" low. Amazing, yet not really. Once we broke below the massive 5 yr H&S neckline in July we had to do this obligatory dance underneath it for several months before embarking on the great fade into oblivion. Why? Because the exact same thing happened before we busted up through it to the upside in 1997. Symmetry.

Once the fade starts there will be no stopping it and it will put a final end to the infuriating bullish chants from the likes of Creamer and Pudlow :grin:

#23 The End

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 09:02 PM

Pile,

You have a PM

B4 , you gotts an EMAIL.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#24 Charliss

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 09:05 PM

Dollar trying to sneak back down AH.

Undie,

And pog back up....

#25 buttugly

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 09:07 PM

Opened a short position on DIA
and doubled existing short position of CSCO

Tightish stops.

With Ameritrade (ex Datek) I note the
stop is termed GTC and only lasts 30 days.

Is that right? If so I assume I need to keep track of my stops
to make sure that they don't expire?

#26 PileDriver

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 09:12 PM

Oh yeah, forget yet one more (see #13)

1) Mutual Funds 5% cash.
2) Wall St Strategist recommend 70-80% equity allocations.
3) Business Week survey shows 95% bullish for 03 with very high targets.
4) Investor Intelligence 51% bulls, 25% bears.
5) VIX in the twenties.
6) Equity PCR 0.4 today and 21-day MAs still floating on very low side.
7) S&P500 COT. Small traders very bullish, commercials heavy short.
8) Business newsmags showing pictures of bulls on cover and that recovery is a foregone conclusion. "Hot Stocks for 03", "Get Ready for Recovery in 03".
9) Merrill Lynch survey of Global money Mgrs show 74% bullish for 03.
10) Odd lotters going for the gusto on the dips
11) 56% households still invested in equities, three years in a row.
12) Pudlow and Creamer guarantee market will be straight up 40%
13) Corporate insiders still net sellers, not buying.

13 counts to kill the bull.

#27 The End

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 09:16 PM

Mousey,

You to have a pm. :wink2:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#28 Charliss

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 09:20 PM

Mark,

More great commentary from you. Thank you!

#29 EasyAl

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 09:29 PM

Governor Gray Davis and the State of California are depending on you, Al.

Hi Machine:

Where have you been ?

The state of California is in big trouble. A few weeks ago, Davis had to admit that California would have $34 billions ($35 billions now) deficit in next 18 months. When asked why he had kept putting out much smaller number earlier and why had not started to cut the spending before his re-election, Davis said that all the economist he consulted (including Mr. Greenspan) told him that the economy would show strong re-covery by mid of 2002.

I read somewhere that the deficit in California is not the worst. State of New York has the largest deficit. However, I still have not found out what the projected deficit for New York is. It is not strange that the two states that benefitted most from Greenspan bubble are having worst budget crunch.

#30 rayok

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Posted 08 January 2003 - 09:32 PM

anecdotal story met a MSFT VIP today, asked him if he expected mr softie to establish dividend..his reply was the co and employees only care about stock price  because of all their options...so no way on the div...tells me hes buying like crazy at these bargain prices...poor sap

Big liar is more like it. Check out insider trading for the last two years, millions sold, and only one two thousand share buy (the poor guy probably lost a bet) :P





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