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B4 The Bell, Humpday July 28


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#256 Brisbane Bear

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 12:41 AM

Sleddog,

Once upon a time,those kind of job cuts would send the share price of the companies much higher(still might) ,but the wider repercussions are far more onimous with the real estate bubble that we have today,these folk who do lose their jobs whilst holding massive mortgages on wildly inflated real estate are really in deep strife.

Not so long ago,when housing was more realistically valued,even if you did lose your job,people could still manage to scrimp by,especially with a little help from family or even the bank if you had a good history,but now the numbers are just so massive,I dont think many will be able to restructure their affairs in any orderly sort of fashion.

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 12:42 AM

The United States Treasury has announced they are recalling the new Minnesota quarters.

"We are recalling all of the new Minnesota quarters that were recently issued", Treasury Undersecretary Russell Shackelford said in a press conference Monday. "This comes in the wake of numerous reports to this agency that the quarters will not work in parking meters, toll booths, vending machines, pay phones or other coin-operated devices. We believe the problem lies in a design flaw." said Shackelford.

The winning design for the Minnesota quarter was submitted by Sven Peterson and Ole Johnson of Hibbing, Minnesota. Sven commented, "Apparently, the duct tape holding the two dimes and nickel together keeps jamming the coin-operated devices."

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 02:45 AM

Since this time yesterday, EUR/USD tested support and failed, once hitting 1.2000 exactly as yesterday's low. Since then, it's been drifting higher, now about 1.2080, which is about 25 pips higher than it was yeterday at this time. Of course, the half position I left on last night got stopped out for break-even, so all I got was +15 (half position) for the day. At least a small gain is better than no gain, or a loss.

Despite the failed test, and slight upward drift over the last 36 hours or so, my fit of ST trend/cyles still unambiguously points down. As such, I will look for a short entry, if and when the direction turns back down. Like yesterday, if I get an entry and it does go down for me, I will bail on half the position if the price gets hung up around 1.2000 again; it probably will, if it gets down there at all.

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 03:08 AM

A trade signal came quickly tonight. Sold at 1.2062.

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 03:20 AM

Speak of the Devil

On LOB

Click Here

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 04:02 AM

Janitor,

I haven't been tracking GBP/USD recently. However, I compared its chart with EUR/USD and they are currently trading in almost identical lockstep, as they sometimes do. If this holds, the 1.2000 round number / psychological support on EUR may add additional support to GBP, though it might not because the round number is unique to EUR.

Right now EUR looks like it wants to take another stab at 1.2000. My take is that if one of the following two events occur, this support level is most likely broken: 1) EUR/USD trades down below 1.1950. 2) EUR/USD trades down to the 1.1950 - 1.1999 range and stays there for 12 or more hours. If either of these happen, then I see 1.1800 as a fairly high probability destination, and it could trade to that point pretty quickly. From the time of your post, it looks like EUR was at about 1.2020 when you entered your GBP trade. So, the critical point is 70 pips below this, or probably roughly 100 pips, on GBP, below your entry.

On the other hand, if you get the bounce you are trading for, I see EUR/USD getting back to 1.2250 or so over a few days to a week without too much resistance. This may translate into an approximately 350 gain on GBP.

As I see it, all of the above is also consistent with the Anals. The EUR/USD 1.2000 support corresponds with the USD Index daily chart cmap at 90.50 and major weekly chart upper band resistance. However, on daily chart, if Uncle Buck does break through 90.50, he pretty much has free air to 92 (major resistance), and he might get there quickly (equals 150-200 pip drops in EUR and GBP). On the other hand, if Buck bounces off resistance, I see nothing in the way of a drop to 87 or so.

I always read Uncle Buck's illness. Even though it doesn't cover specific currency pairs, the cycle-based support/resistance levels are obvious and quite reliable. While this requires a guestimate on the corresponding numbers on your pair, I don't mind because I find support/resistance "points" are not exact; they are really zones rather than exact points.

Hope this helps. From your post, I am guessing your time frame is 3-10 days or so for your trade. It looks like you put on a good trade, with at least 50:50 win:lose odds along with at least 3:1 risk:reward. :)

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 04:28 AM

Lowered stop to 1.2067.

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 04:46 AM

EUR/USD now trading around 1.2020, and not surprisingly, looking like it might stall around this level for a while.

I lowered my stop to 1.2045, so I now have +17 pips profit locked in on a stop-out.

#264 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 04:57 AM

990n is up early and in a buying mood at 3 am to the minute.
No attempts to hide the interference as those that are drunk with power know questions about this blatant manipulation will never be forthcoming. gold is being sold in unison, the dollar is up, but what else is new? Perhaps its the coming crude slap that is part of the plan for the casino today...last 42.58. What better reason for this POS to rally then crude falling back to 42 as someone pointed out yesterday. the Truman show continues.
This is no market. Once again I fear bears will be in for tough sledding compliments of the Jekyll and friends.
9 point 3am jam on the NAZ and 4.5 on the spoos so far. Sure hope it reverses before the few remaining shorts wake up to see their heads being taken off yet again.
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#265 Janitor

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 04:58 AM

Hi Ron

thnks for advice, got stopped out. Looks as if buck is going stronger.

Must say, the anals do provide good info

Took profit on Euro/USD

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 05:22 AM

Hi Ron

thnks for advice, got stopped out. Looks as if buck is going stronger.

Must say, the anals do provide good info

Took profit on Euro/USD

Buck made a nice little up move, as cycles indicated was probable. However, as measured on EUR/USD, Buck hit a brick wall at 1.2020, and has now lost momentum.

Doesn't this seem like a rerun from yesterday. I bet you could look at the two charts and believe they are copies of the same chart!

Accordingly, I did a rerun myself, although better results today. :) Covered half my position at 1.2023, for +39 pips. Left my stop on the other half at 1.2045, with +17 locked in, and so what the hell, will gamble on a support breakthrough.

Your idea of a GBP bounce here (equals a buck reversal and drop) is a good one and may still play out. If cycles Doc track remain opposed to each other, when the short cycles turn (could be any day), GBP/USD and EUR/USD may rally well for a couple days.

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 05:30 AM

990n is up early and in a buying mood at 3 am to the minute.
No attempts to hide the interference as those that are drunk with power know questions about this blatant manipulation will never be forthcoming. gold is being sold in unison, the dollar is up, but what else is new? Perhaps its the coming crude slap that is part of the plan for the casino today...last 42.58. What better reason for this POS to rally then crude falling back to 42 as someone pointed out yesterday. the Truman show continues.
This is no market. Once again I fear bears will be in for tough sledding compliments of the Jekyll and friends.
9 point 3am jam on the NAZ and 4.5 on the spoos so far. Sure hope it reverses before the few remaining shorts wake up to see their heads being taken off yet again.

Yeah, it looks like 990N is saying "I'M BAAAAAAACK!!!!!!"

I looked at about 2:30, and futures were solidly in the red. I got busy with other stuff, didn't look again until I saw your post, and surprise, surprise, the futures are now solidly green.

I'm so shocked.

It's now almost 5:30. We now get to see how bad they have it in for gold tonight.

I'll check it out tomorrow. Right now --- sleep.

#268 longOnUranus

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 05:41 AM

Just remember, from Nikkie's close to NYSE's open, Globex is not a market...it's a performance. 'Been like that since the 9/11/01 bounce.

I expect this act will play longer than Cats before it goes dark.

#269 trinharder

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 05:53 AM

Mortgages Get More Exotic

40-Year Mortgage. These products are similar to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, except that borrowers stretch the payments out for an extra 10 years. Lenders, however, charge a slightly higher interest rate, up to half a percentage point, says Greg McBride of Bankrate.com.

Negative Amortization Mortgage. This interest-only product allows buyers to pay less than the full amount of interest necessary to cover the costs of the mortgage.

more...

http://sunday.wsj.co...2198972960.html

A little late on this one, my appologies if it has already been posted and I missed it.

#270 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 29 July 2004 - 06:26 AM

Mortgages Get More Exotic

40-Year Mortgage. These products are similar to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, except that borrowers stretch the payments out for an extra 10 years. Lenders, however, charge a slightly higher interest rate, up to half a percentage point, says Greg McBride of Bankrate.com.

Negative Amortization Mortgage. This interest-only product allows buyers to pay less than the full amount of interest necessary to cover the costs of the mortgage.

more...

http://sunday.wsj.co...2198972960.html

A little late on this one, my appologies if it has already been posted and I missed it.

Trin
UB
I did not see that. The US usury masters are the most creative the world has ever seen, at finding ways to increase, encourage and sustain the unprecedented debt bubble. Its all so insane, yet accepted and rarely discussed. I sometimes wander if I'm the fool for not joining in and living beyond my means. In the end it will be the prudent and responsible that will pay for the mess these assholes have got us in. When are people going to have fear of taking on enormous liability? Seems like it will go on infinitum.

4 out of the last 5 days the market has been stick saved. Talk about control. They play with keystrokes while we bust our butts with hard earned "money".

Crude hits 18 year, all time highs since the comex was created, and Europe is jumping for joy and gold is getting sold.
WTF is wrong with this picture? The truth is out the there but being as closely guarded as Osama.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson





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