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B4 the Bell Fryday, July 23, 2004


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#1 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 07:43 AM

I consider myself lucky to be small part of this group. There isn't any place else I know of where you can find the thoughtful, courteous dialogue that goes on here every day. Many tanks to all of you.

My ISP often goes bog slow, regardless of site, as soon as the market opens. At 4:00 PM Eastern, the slow down disappears. Don't tell me the sheeple aren't watching with (mostly) horror.

Are we becoming so effieicient that we are effectively outsourcing the bulk of the human race? Think about it. A hundred years ago about 30 or 40% of the workforce was involved in producing our food. Today that number is 3%. With computers and automation the same trend spread through manufacturing and now it has worked it's way into service industries again aided by computers with the addition of the internet. It's not just in the US either. In fact some of the most rapid people displacement is occuring in developing economies as they come up to speed. China literally has hundreds of millions of unemployed. In fact their unemployed number is larger than the entire US workforce and some of Europe's combined. And yet as things progress it takes fewer and fewer people to produce the same number of goods or services, so even as population grows, the worforce can either shrink or at best remain static. What are we going to do with all of these people that seemingly have no real purpose other than to consume what is produced? Of course there is one area that is trending opposite. Government. It takes more and more people to do less and less. Sigh.

Perhaps when energy prices become sufficiently high, we may find that more human power is needed to replace what our 150 year energy orgy created.

I know Brian and others are plenty excited about the tar-sands, and likely rightfully so from an investment standpoint. But lets get real. The total production capabilities from that source isn't going to put much of a dent in global supply over it's useful life. One of them (Harken?) I read about the other day was real excited that they could produce 350 million barrels over the projected 35 year life of the "field". 350 million barrels. Wow. That's a little over 4 days of global consumption at current rates. Work like mad beavers for 35 years and you can supply the planet for 4 days. Or the US for about 16 days. It would take 800 similar operations to provide a constant supply just to the US. And large amounts of NG will be consumed to produce that oil. In the end it will help, but not a great deal in terms of the big picture. And all the while the conventional oil supplies are concentrated in what for the most part are mature and aging fields which are likely at or past peak capabilities. The new discoveries aren't even close to replacing those that are being exhausted. The worst part is trying to push those fields harder to increase production is very risky. You can actually suddenly destroy a field's ability to produce with draconian measures intended to increase extraction. It's a fine line that's difficult to determine until after the fact. Having the Saudis increase production if you want to build roads is great, but not worth a damn if you want gasoline. The quality of their oil is well suited for asphalt, but piss poor from a refining standpoint if your end goal is gasoline.

I don't know what the answer is other than for the forseeable future energy prices have no where to go but up over the long term. Barring any miracle new sources, ultimately the planet must shed a large percentage of it's population because you simply cannot afford to feed them without the advantage of (relatively) low cost energy. There are already many places on the planet that cannot feed themselves due to resources and climate. With our planet in the midst of what appears to be a long term change in climate, more areas could easily be added to that list.

For a time I was thankful to live in the Northwestern US from an energy standpoint. A very high percentage of our electrical power is hydro derived and you don't really think about rivers running nearly dry. But they can. It's not rain that supplies those waters as much as it is winter snow pack. If you look at the trend for ski resorts over the last decade, it's not a pretty picture. Average snow levels (as in altitude) have been steadily climbing and the number of "ski" days at resorts is declining even with the addition of many snow making machines. If the West is truly reverting to a more normal drier and warmer pattern, the population growth of the West over the last several decades will have to reverse. Phoenix in July without air conditioning isn't going to work for most. Not to mention no water for swimming pools, golf courses, lawns or car washing. I'll bet cisterns make a come back. There's a gowth opportunity business for some ambitious entrepreneur. That and composting toilets. How about some designer outhouses? :lol:

I don't know for sure what the future holds and neither do you, but at least here we have the opportunity to try and make those transitions as smooth as possible as well as seek out opportunities and share ideas for a better future.

Now let's go tear the head off the stupid bulls.

#2 DrStool

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 07:58 AM

Plenty of hydro here in QC, and it comes from the Arctic 800 feet below ground, so I doubt it will run out anytime soon.

Bring your woolies.

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#3 DrStool

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 07:58 AM

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#4 DrStool

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:03 AM

Respite In The Storm

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#5 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:04 AM

Here's the futures - until the next surprise matrix announcement

Posted Image
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Uncle Bucky's Viagra is holding up. Sure, some day Bucky will get placed in the grave as is the destiny of all fiat, but I wouldn't be ordering flowers for a while.
This is one year with a 200 dma. The 50 and 100 dma are similar. Do we break through or bounce off?

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Uncle Earl is creeping up to $42 this morning
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10 year yield is, yawn, at 4.46% Where's those vigilantes?

The biweekly metal pasting continues. Key commercial short postiions are once again soaring. Some day, POW, to the moon Alice.

#6

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:07 AM

Plenty of hydro here in QC, and it comes from the Arctic 800 feet below ground, so I doubt it will run out anytime soon.

Bring your woolies.

Nothing like awakening to the sound of a love-sick bull moose at day break
a little further north.

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:11 AM

Thanks for the grand opening yobob.

#8 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:14 AM

Got gold?

A question :- If all the gold ever produced in the world was formed into a single block how long would its edge be?

The length of a tennis court [22 metres] ?
The length of a football pitch [100 metres] ?
The length of a golf shot [200 metres] ?
In fact at 19 metres it's quite a bit shorter than a tennis court, and that includes all the privately held coins, bars and jewellery in the world - some 75% of the total. The world's monetary gold reserve is a block of only one quarter that volume, and America's reserve is only one quarter of that. Fort Knox hides only a modest hole in the ground.

There's not much gold left elsewhere in the ground either. Approximately 50,000 tonnes (about a third of what is already out) remains un-mined and will cost in excess of $300 an ounce to extract. Meanwhile - after steadily more detailed worldwide surveys - the mining industry consensus is that large mineral deposit discoveries are now a thing of the past.


Nice chart quantifying the realtive size of quantities of gold too.

#9 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:20 AM

Plenty of hydro here in QC, and it comes from the Arctic 800 feet below ground, so I doubt it will run out anytime soon.

Bring your woolies.

Nothing like awakening to the sound of a love-sick bull moose at day break
a little further north.

Yah, but those meeses don't lay eggs for breakfast. :lol:

Alaska remains on my short list of alternate places for sanctuary. Global warming has done wonders for their Winter climate. The Moose reference brought that up, as I've spent considerable time there and have come within a few feet of being mowed down by a moose running through the brush. That will definitely wake you up.

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:25 AM

Yah, but those meeses don't lay eggs for breakfast. 


Remedy.....heated chicken house! :lol:

#11 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:42 AM

Report summary

6:31AM Maytag misses by $0.30; light on revs (MYG) 21.28: Reports Q2 (Jun) $0.09 per share, exclduing items, $0.30 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.39; revenues fell 0.9% year/year to $1.15 bln vs the $1.19 bln consensus. Co states, "Our operational performance was disappointing. The Housewares segment loss had the largest impact because we anticipated a recovery at Hoover floor care, .but unfortunately that business really sucked"


6:53AM Great A&P Tea misses by $0.03, ex items (GAP) 6.89: Reports Q1 (May) loss from continuing operations of $1.08 per share, ex items, $0.03 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($1.05); revenues rose 1.8% year/year to $3.29 bln vs the $3.27 bln consensus A company official commented, "Geeze, we thought we had that quarter in the bag."

7:01AM Smurfit-Stone beats by $0.02, ex items (SSCC) 18.75: Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.05 per share, excluding a benefit of $0.01 related to net impact of a non-cash foreign currency translation gain and restructuring charges, $0.02 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.07); revenues rose 2.5% year/year to $2.04 bln vs the $2.02 bln consensus. Demand for Smurfits continues to fall. "Must be those damn Telle-Tubbies eating our market share."

#12 orvack

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:47 AM

Food for thought.

From GATA last night :

Beijing has started work on storage on the eastern seaboard, which will make up the first phase of a national strategic stockpile of about 100 million barrels of crude. The tanks are due to be ready by the end of 2005. (1 tonne= 7.5 barrels)

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#13 DrStool

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:49 AM

Targets Hit

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#14 orvack

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 08:52 AM

Metals act OK and are just using up time. A few years from now, these prices will look as though they were giving the metals away.

Please, please, please -- read the new book, "Running On Empty" by Peter Peterson. This book will give you some idea of the problems coming up. In the end, it's going to boil down to the equation I've been warning about for years -- "INFLATE or DIE."
  
    - Richard Russell, last night.
    www.dowtheoryletters.com



#15 Bearbones

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Posted 23 July 2004 - 09:02 AM

Looks like we have more misses than at a Tupperware party.

Looks like plenty of disappointment ahead to add to yesterday's misses

"Proprietary Warning

Based on readings from its proprietary leading indexes for employment, manufacturing, services, construction and the overall economy, the ECRI says the U.S. economy is "on the cusp of a slowdown that will persist at least through year-end."

They aren't forecasting a recession; just a slowdown to trend growth, something on the order of 3 percent. The economy grew 3.9 percent in the first quarter following 6 percent second- half growth. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect second- quarter real GDP growth of 3.7 percent. The Commerce Department will provide its first pass on the second quarter next Friday.

The stock market is siding with the ECRI outlook for less robust growth, or at least less robust profit growth, ahead. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index are all posting year-to-date losses. "

http://www.businessc...php?storyID=684





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