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B4 The Bell Thursday July 22


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#46 Lesser Fool

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:00 AM

A quick and devastating loss of confidence in the currency, a "cold turkey" cutoff of external credit, and a savage hike in the cost of everyday necessities.

When this happens is uncertain. But it will play out with shocking speed when it does. The markets shoot first and ask questions later. By the time the "rumors" are confirmed as fact, it will be all over but the crying.


MH, therein may lie the answer to your question re a new business enterprise. Demand should be heavy for soup kitchens. Start developing the concept now for a Soupbucks or Starsoup on every corner.

#47 Ned38

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:09 AM

Now where is my Dow 10,000 hat ?

#48 NWD

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:10 AM

[quote name='yobob1' date='Jul 22 2004, 08:40 AM'] [quote name='machinehead' date='Jul 22 2004, 07:17 AM'] [quote name='yobob1' date='Jul 22 2004, 08:50 AM']IMO we are beginning the final descent into hell, with the POR a matter of months away at best.[/QUOTE]
Many folks imagine the inevitable "descent into hell" as a long march sort of thing ... the foreign creditors telling Snowman, "Solly, your rating was cut from AAA to AA, so we charge you 30 extra basis points now, ha ha."

No. It's not going to be like that.

The unsustainable U.S. consumption machine will be unplugged in the same way as Russia (1998) and Argentina (2000) --

A quick and devastating loss of confidence in the currency, a "cold turkey" cutoff of external credit, and a savage hike in the cost of everyday necessities.

......

What happened to "beans in the teens"? [/quote]
Here's a thought.

If there's a large scale sell-off in the bond market, all that dough has to go somewhere.

Why not basic commodities, including beans?

Speculative flows, chasing returns, could amplify that "savage hike in the cost of everday commodities," perhaps?

Another self-amplifying feedback loop of the sort that has become so familiar in recent years.

#49

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:10 AM

Last week OPEC cancelled its scheduled meeting proclaiming that since they were aready producing at max. capacity, there was no reason to meet.

Now today, OPEC announces (at the behest of Greenspan) that they will be increasing their production by 10%!!!

The market's response:

BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!

Why not 50%???

BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!

Do I hear 100%???

BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
BWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!

#50 machinehead

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:11 AM

What happened to "beans in the teens"?

Postponed, but not cancelled.

When the dollar cracks, bean prices will soar.

Hmm, this smacks of a wager. Perhaps two. $US at year end for one and let's pick one commod. I like copper for it's overall indicator abilities.

You mean the dollar index? (cash index 88.18 this morning). I do think it will be lower at the end of the year.

I bought copper between 80 and 90 cents last year, and sold it in the $1.30 to $1.34 range on Feb. 25th. I feel neutral about it now ... inclined to leave it alone for awhile, since it was so good to me.

Currently I'm long coffee, crude oil, palladium, silver and sugar ... short Naz and S&P indexes ... if you hold a contrary opinion about any of those ...
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#51 zensmoke

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:11 AM

Another repo
Type of operation: O/N RP
Total Money Value of Operation (in $bil.) 8.750
http://www.ny.frb.or...m?SHOWMORE=TRUE

#52 The Mad Hungarian

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:12 AM

What happened to "beans in the teens"?

Postponed, but not cancelled.

When the dollar cracks, bean prices will soar.

machinehead,
Just noticed you are fast approaching post # 10,000; eerie convergence with DJIA about to dive below 10,000! :D
How about we make some "Machinehead 10,000" hats and send a few to Crapvision?

#53 GregFokker

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:12 AM

Anyone got the net on the repos- running way behind today.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#54 brian4

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:17 AM

Window now closed-we'll take it what violent action, when you see swings like that it is a portent to a crash a meltdown here is quite possible-Piggy crawls on alone for a bit.

#55 machinehead

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:21 AM

What happened to "beans in the teens"?

Postponed, but not cancelled.

When the dollar cracks, bean prices will soar.

machinehead,
Just noticed you are fast approaching post # 10,000; eerie convergence with DJIA about to dive below 10,000! :D
How about we make some "Machinehead 10,000" hats and send a few to Crapvision?

Crapvision is about ten miles down the road from here.

I have long thought about doing some sort of bearish "guerrilla theater" in their capacious front yard (it's a 22-acre corporate campus) ... a form of psychological warfare.

I know The End would be crazy enough to join me, though we could be facing a trespassing rap if the suits get really pissed about it ... :lol:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#56 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:25 AM

What happened to "beans in the teens"?

Postponed, but not cancelled.

When the dollar cracks, bean prices will soar.

Hmm, this smacks of a wager. Perhaps two. $US at year end for one and let's pick one commod. I like copper for it's overall indicator abilities.

You mean the dollar index? (cash index 88.18 this morning). I do think it will be lower at the end of the year.

I bought copper between 80 and 90 cents last year, and sold it in the $1.30 to $1.34 range on Feb. 25th. I feel neutral about it now ... inclined to leave it alone for awhile, since it was so good to me.

Currently I'm long coffee, crude oil, palladium, silver and sugar ... short Naz and S&P indexes ... if you hold a contrary opinion about any of those ...

Of your short list of commod longs the one that I think has the best chance of diving is palladium. The auto makers are rapidly approaching all out desperation ploys that are failing to incite sales.

As to the dollar, I would say it won't go below 85 or above 92 for the remainder of the year. IMO your scenario would require breaking below 85 and then plunging.

Like yourself commodity speculation has been all the rage when you consider the proliferation and bullhorning of commod funds plus the enormous amount of hedge funds now in play. IMO it could quickly collapse as liquidity drains.

#57

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:28 AM

Window now closed-we'll take it what violent action, when you see swings like that it is a portent to a crash a meltdown here is quite possible-Piggy crawls on alone for a bit.

Got to be the mash from the doubler that didn't make it to the
second run. :P

#58 brian4

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:29 AM

Those Jan. 06 cube leap puts 29 strike (WDMC) i bought 50 of @$1.65 a week or so back are $1.90 Bid and still are a great buy with 18 months to go. ;)

#59 GregFokker

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:31 AM

We have 16.75B in repos added today, 8.75B of which on an overnight basis. Expiring are 5.25B in overnight money, 3.25B in 6-day money and 11B in 14-day money, for a net 2.5B drain today from the Fed.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#60 zensmoke

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Posted 22 July 2004 - 10:32 AM

Caterpillar bulldozes the Dow
Higher costs hit the machinery company’s bottom line. Sears misses big and warns big. McDonald’s second-quarter store sales shine. Molson and Coors plan to merge.

Investors were trying to pick themselves off the canvas this morning after yesterday’s late sell-off, but a miserable profit report from Caterpillar (CAT, news, msgs) put that notion to bed.

http://moneycentral....ches/P89975.asp





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