B4 The Bell Humpday July 21
303 replies to this topic
Posted 21 July 2004 - 11:36 PM
Tanks guys - I'm very flattered. I have a huge amount of respect for everybody here.
Doc - I made the chart with software I wrote myself. The software is a work in progress. I was trying to duplicate the "Cyclitec Services" charts which Hurst apparently sold in the '70s. If you've ever seen the 50Lb. Hurst Trading Course that Trader's Press sells, it is chock full of them.
I wrote my own software because there were some subtle aspects of Hurst's methodology that I wasn't able to duplicate with off-the-shelf charting software. For one thing, Hurst's charts (and cycles) were based on calendar days rather than trading days and have "holes" where the weekends/holidays are.
The "dominancy envelope" as Hurst called it is generated with a brickwall lowpass filter, rather than a simple moving average. It has the advantage of generating a smooth result, but has the disadvantage that it relies on data in the future (like a centered moving average but worse). Therefore I have extrapolated the rightmost part of the envelope using a linear prediction algorithm. It makes a nice looking chart but it should be noted that it is an extrapolation. (This is my own addition - I don't think these algorithms were known in Hurst's day and probably would have been too computationally intensive anyway).
As far as the cycle lengths, when I started playing with this stuff I was shocked how closely things matched Hurst's work 30+ years ago.
Also - I put a copyright & pointer on the chart. Anything to help the stool.
Posted 21 July 2004 - 11:37 PM
Felt like late June 2002 today, gonna really get fun when it gets to July.
Posted 22 July 2004 - 12:18 AM
Very interesting life you have lead.
I agree,it is very interesting to hear about the life and times of different folk from all over the place.
All good stuff.
You can learn alot of things just reading stories like these.
Posted 22 July 2004 - 12:23 AM
Now the Treasurer is starting to backpedal on the real estate boom in Australia...He told everyone 18 months ago that prices dont go up forever...wasnt speaking very loudly...no-one ever has the guts to say things when it should be said,save people from a whole lotta pain...
Mr Costello said he had been warning for 18 months to two years that the property market could not keep growing at that rate, particularly in the investment market.
"I think in some parts of the market, yes (there's) oversupply and when you get oversupply in the market, what happens, prices fall," he said.
"And people were going into this as an investment thinking it's always going to go up, it's not like that."
Posted 22 July 2004 - 01:28 AM
After all the gloating and peein' and moanin' Sledd and I have done about CECO, this seemed appropriate -- from a Yahoo message board (I had never been to one before Sledd posted the link, but now it's become kind of an entertaining guilty pleasure...) --
"Do you think CECO will continue to show strength as it approaches its fraudulent earnings announcement?"
Somehow that just seemed to sum the whole sector up -- and made me truly:lol:
Posting the link because of Doc's copyright concerns, but there's not really anything else there worth reading, save your time and energy.
Of course I'm caustic!
Posted 22 July 2004 - 01:55 AM
Just saw a crawl on Bloomberg: "Halliburton set to report earnings. expected: 33 cents a share"......3 billion from the US treasury and they give the owners 33 cents?
Posted 22 July 2004 - 02:29 AM
EW on the NDX (same structure for the SPX):
I had assumed the final terminal (T) 5 of 5 of C was developing as an irregular/elongated flat but yesterday’s breach of the prior lows on the SPX amongst other things invalidates that particular count.
Instead T5 seems to be an expanding (and almost certainly non-limiting) triangle creating the classic thrills and spills environment we have seen over the past few days.
Wave c of the triangle seems to be a double zigzag so wave e should probably be a triple zigzag which appears consistent with the action. Am expecting the C leg of the final zigzag to complete during the morning session then a massive up, up and away reversal in the afternoon.
Posted 22 July 2004 - 02:48 AM
From Hypertiger a while back:
And that's the bottom line. Like it or not, apologize for usury all you like, the fact is it does absolutely guarantee the transfer of real wealth to the privileged few (i.e. the oligarchs on top, which in our particular forumlation of this system takes the form of a plutocracy) and ultimately the collapse of the wealth-transfer-machine system itself.
As Hypertiger points out, the outcome is actually very simple to see. "The attachment of compound interest and interest to the medium of exchange" by necessity implies that some small group of people are earning money by simply administering the money system itself. Unfortunately, because of the basic and unavoidable arithmatic nature of interest, the money earned is in no way connected to the real value these people add to society by administering the money system. In fact, even at quite low rates, interest gives these people income in grotesquely greater proportions than they ever truly create.
In a few words, the incentives are all wrong. Because of the great wealth for little effort available from usury, the incentive is to crank as much debt out on society as possible without regard at all for how the administration of the money system and supply impacts the needs of real flesh-and-blood persons living within the society, or for the long-term health and prosperity of the society as a whole. The bottom line is that even when these systems have been started in good faith with good intentions (I know, this is a very big), they inevitably lead to the mess we find world crapitalism in right here and now in the year 2004.
The small privileged group running the system sucks out money, and thus wealth, from the rest of the individuals in society, who are the ones doing the producing of the real wealth itself. The privileged plutocrats are parasites. Whatever your politics, and however you may rationalize things, the simple fact of the matter is that the plutocrats are parasites.
So what would you expect to happen within a society that employs an economic / money system that runs on centralized usury? [“private” versus nationalized matters not] My common sense tells me that the incentives in such a system dictate, as a first choice, becoming a member of the in group. If that is impossible, secure an advantageous position somewhere within the financial sphere. If that’s not an option, master some form of speculation or another (i.e. profit off the irrational and grossly exaggerated money flows that such a system inevitably engenders by way of the usury/debt-creation incentive).
In any such society, at least at its start, a social force may oppose the above individual incentives. Specifically, some sort of “work ethic” that places virtue on contributing positively to other people and to society may exist. That is, individuals may believe that a virtuous individual earns a living, or a profit, from working hard in some activity that productively adds to the total wealth of society, or in some way clearly and tangibly benefits other persons and society. Unfortunately, some of the value created by these people gets siphoned off by the usurers. This is inevitable because Plutocrat usurers add no wealth to society, and if they contribute anything at all to society by administering the money system, the contribution is insignificant compared with the amount they siphon off. This is always the case because the usurers are extacting the same currency (claim on wealth) that productive persons are earning; the usurers either grab some of the currency from the producers or else create more and in doing so debase the currency the producers have previously earned. As time goes on, the work ethic in such a society will, without fail, erode. This is simply human nature. Nobody wants to work his or her ass off and then 1) see some of the returns siphoned off by others, and 2) see the privileged few living the beautiful life without having to work hard, simply by their positions within the official system. One at a time, producers will want the easy life too, or at the least just get sick and tired of it and lose incentive to work so hard, and then act accordingly.
Another consequence of ongoing usuary is that some persons within the society will not be able to make a living within the system at all. As the usurers suck more and more real wealth out of society, if you’re not one of the usurers, simply finding a productive opportunity, either in employment or business, may be very restricted or impossible. As time goes on, less profit potential (free cash held by others) and/or well paying jobs (genuine producing business organizations and persons are squeezed tighter) exist. At same time, by way of currency debasement, cost of living goes up and up and up. The unavoidable result is generally more and more people in or near poverty. These people will no doubt, at least from time to time, become restless. At the same time, the inner circle has every incentive to keep everything the same, and running, and will resort to welfare, police state repression, or most likely both to keep the machine running. Do the plutocrats pay for this? Of course not! This cost is also taken from productive individuals and organizations, creating yet more burden.
Unfortunately, some blame welfare recipients, poor “criminals” etc. as the primary cause of the problems, because these individuals are locally visible and thus appear to be the ones who are the drag on society. While such “in your face” social rot is visible while the lever-pullers on top are relatively invisible, the lever-pullers are the cause while the rot is the effect. Remember the ignoramus yahoos who started screaming about “welfare mothers” back in the 1980s? Well, the Plutocrats are the mothers of all welfare mothers. This is obvious, and back in the 1980s was illustrated by the amount of welfare the General Motors Corpse received. The mistaken attitude is a stark failure to see who it is that is really putting the squeeze on (actually, parasitizing) economic opportunity and potential, and also who is really benefitting the most from welfare and an underclass that is at least somewhat passified and under control.
To me, all of the above is just an all too familiar description of present reality, and I can see how it had to come to this.
All of the above leads to production decreases over time, by way of parasitism on producers. The only way to avoid collapse is constant overall growth. Growth is accomlished with bigger number of already-existent products and services and the implementation of new ones. While some new products and services produce a genuine improvement in quality of life, the overwhelming majority do not. Madison Avenue excels at inventing new needs -- one more thing each of us simply must own, or do, to be happy and fit in with society, which really just adds to misery, if only a little at a time. I still hate my cell phone, and the fact I must use one. However, from the system’s point of view, this growth is always necessary for its own sake; it matters not what it is. The host must always grow or else it dies, along with the parasites. This growth must of course be financed with debt, for both producers and consumers, especially as the growth goes way beyond what sane people left to their own devices would even demand.
This is the trap. The system must produce its usurious interest-attached “profits” for those at the top of the pyramid not matter what, no matter how ridiculously high production capacity gets and how much mental illness the pressue to consume and keep up engenders amongst the population. As the whole machine starts cracking here and there from the strain of ever more acceleration, even though it’s beyond red line, only ever increasing amounts of debt can lubricate it so it doesn’t just blow up. Unfortantely, no amount of Greasepan’s dishonest creative-accounting productivity miracle phantasm can really make the cap ute problem go away, and hence the corpse debt problem go away. No amount of Valium, Prozac, and designer drugs can allow individuals to ever produce enought to repay their debts.
Simple arithmatic and logic implies this society must end badly, with a sudden and fast spiral-down and collapse. No need for complicated economic, debt and money supply analysis or fancy charts and graphs to see this result is inevitable. Such analysis is, however, useful for studying the details of our particular version of a centralized usury system in its present state and guestimating a timeline for it.
Does any of this sound familiar and seem close to home to you? If so, you can thank systematic, centralized usury for it. All of it. The bottom line is that usurers, by definition, obtain legal claims on wealth they did not create, in very, very large quantity. Somebody had to create this wealth, and thus the Plutocrats somehow stole it. Rationalize for it, apologize for it, or whatever; the Plutocrats stole it. Only when it falls apart, and individual Plutocrats run off with whatever they can carry -- and have previously transferred ahead of time -- will we know just how much they have stolen.
Posted 22 July 2004 - 02:58 AM
The trade I still had on last night when I signed off came in for me, +30 pips, making the session worth something in the end.
Right now, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.2250 heading into 3:00 a.m. I placed stops about this point at 1.2240 and 1.2260, and I'll wait and see which I get stopped in to.
Posted 22 July 2004 - 03:24 AM
L Ron - I saved your post as I will need to read it a few times to take it all in. Thank you for your insights.
Posted 22 July 2004 - 04:03 AM
I got stopped in long at 1.2260 about 20 minutes ago. After that, it fell a bit, concurrent with a $2.00/oz. drop in gold in just a couple minutes. This is actually an odd time of the day for a slap down. After yesterday's 5:30 a.m. slap-down and Comex Crush, you'd think they'd at least wait until 5:30 a.m. for the next slap-down. Lucky for me, EUR/USD didn't take a sharp drop and stop me out. It's now drifted back up to 1.2262.
Overall, like yesterday, this session is a real yawner. The spoos are dull too. No 3:00 a.m. jam job on the spoos, no action really, just a slow and very minor upward drift; not even a volume spike. 990N is on vacation or just sleeping the night away.
Glad you liked the post. After taking the time to create something like that, I'm glad somebody read it. Thanks for letting me know.
Posted 22 July 2004 - 04:27 AM
Stopped out for -13 pips. It never got high enough to raise stop to break-even.
Right back to the starting point at 1.2250. Same stops in place for another try.
I'm sure that the paint really is drying. I just know it is!!!
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