B4 The Bell Weak-end Den July 16-18
292 replies to this topic
Posted 17 July 2004 - 01:13 AM
I knew those frat boys were up to no good. All that hazing stuff is code for sodomy. That's what Rush Limbaugh was talking about. The soldiers were blowing off steam with rape and sodomy. Just like his fratboy buddies.
Markets look like its over. Last time it was really over, we got a terrorist attack. Great news, huh?
Posted 17 July 2004 - 01:16 AM
B4, Heard from a woman who owns a marina in Van that W was coming to town, a few weeks ago. They had the entire Canadian naval fleet escorting them eh? All 10 zodiacs. Bast**ds!
Now jimmy Pattison may be terrifically wealthy and powerful, but on balance, he's four feet tall, has pink freckled skin, orange hair and smiles like a cheshire cat. Doesn't seem worth it.
Posted 17 July 2004 - 01:46 AM
Yes...Sorry to not be paying much attention but very small debt deflationary movements cause massive actions in the economic system...
The 2000-2003 yuckyness...was the result of a drop in YOY debt growth from 11% to 8%... and it is one of the smallest drops in decades...
Fractional reserve systems get weaker the longer they opperate...Untill maximum potential weakness is reached...then they suffer a hyperdeflationary implosion that is unstoppable...
We are fast approaching maximum potential...The debt inflationary self delusional bubble has been inflating since 1958 and dropping rates during that time fueled it...
YOY % changes in rates actually illuminate the fact that rates have been dropping for 45 years...debt growth has also been slowing since 1986...since you can see the tightening of the high and low in rates prior to 1986...the zero barrier currently forces the tightening between the High and low rates...
The FED is basicly done...all that is left now are Mortgage rates to be engineered lower...If enough volume exists to support the low rates of course...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
Posted 17 July 2004 - 02:40 AM
Getting into Capitalstool
When I decided to correct the spelling of my screen name earlier this week, I did what Doc said and re-registered, but I was locked out of B4 all day. I could get into MTM and IDS, but no B4. I couldn't live without you guy's, so next day I re-registered with the original spelling and here I am. Also had to catch up on the posts I'd missed. Don't want to get locked out of B4 again, so I guess my name stays spelled wrong.
I have Ad Aware installed, and if I run it, it picks out "Avenue A" as a spybot. What I've started doing is when I boot up, I go into cookies and delete them all. Then when I visit my sites like weather.com and Reuters news and others, they have to set a new cookie (and download my hard drive to see where I've been on the web so they can tailor their ads to me) as if this was my first visit to thier site. And then after all their work, I have pop-up stopper and never see any of their ads anyway. By the end of the day I have so many cookies acting like E.T. phoning home that my computer slows to a crawl. Being on dial-up modem is bad enough anyway, but with all those cookies it just churns and churns and churns. That's why I have 5 or 6 windows open, so I can be reading in one while it churns in another changing from page 8 to page 9.
The coming meltdown
I decided I couldn't trust the internet or my broker in the case of a meltdown, so today I moved half of my brokerage account into my local bank. After the 10 day hold on the funds, I might go physical gold with it, or just keep the cash in my account. After what Machinehead said, I think I will also keep a stash in hand, although there is some risk of it being ripped as I don't know what would be a safe place to keep it. I don't have a safe. Ideas anyone?
When I asked the bank manager what ammount of cash withdrawl triggers them to have to notify the fed's, he wouldn't tell me - said he could go to jail for revealing that. I feel that if I take out a thousand a week I shouldn't set off any bells or whistles. I think someone here said $10,000 triggers it, so only withdraw $9,999 at any one time. Isn't it amazing that your cash that you are withdrawing is suspect? Where's my country, dude?
It's the weekend (weak end?). Wanna do some off topic discussion about survival in the meltdown. Since you mentioned it, I've been thinking about it. You could write a book on how to survive the coming ________, well, we need to talk about posible scenarios of what's coming, and what it will take to survive them.
I think the first thing it will take is toilet paper. Where you gonna get that when things go south? With all the good minds here at the Stool, we might get your Ph'd yet.
Posted 17 July 2004 - 03:02 AM
The postponed election thing was obviously a trial balloon. It got remarkably little flak. Now the neocon AEI is already in phase II: "We need a backup plan for the election". Why not just have the election?No election?
Don't underestimate the stupidity of the Holy Grail of American politics: the muddled middle swing vote. A terrorist event will stampede them into the "strong leader" comic book column. Hail to the Chimp.
Cheney's got it all figured out.
Posted 17 July 2004 - 03:21 AM
Yes, these are trial balloons to see how much the public will let them get away with. The shrub regime wants nothing more than to cancel the elections and initiate an overt dictatorship, which of course is fully backed by and would fulfill a long-time dream of the Plutocracy. We are living in a present that is the end-game of a game started decades ago.
I believe what they are probing, and hoping, for is not so much support as a large majority that just doesn't give a shit. I mean, they put the crap out there on CNN. Even the possibility of postponing the elections, even for one day, should have had everybody, down to the last individual with either a pulse or an IQ above 3 in protest mode. Instead, yyyyyyyyyyyyaaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnn.
Besides a few people taking note, the world didn't skip a beat. I guess everybody was glued to their idiot boxes, eyes bugged out and glazed over, mouth limp and jaw dropped with drool oozing out, as they were transfixed to their fix of hypnosis by way of Survivor or Cops or whatever the freak show du jour is at present.
When I was a lot younger, one of my favorite music bands, just getting started at the time, was the Dead Kennedys. I loved their lyrics (still do) and related to what they were saying, yet clearly saw the lyrics were just facetious, intentionally grossly exagerrated to point out the true quality of persons who seemed so true and well-intentioned on the surface yet were complete evil, depraved, dispicable slime, like Ronnie "Rambozo the Clown" Raygun. Also, the I took the lyrics as a warning of what the future would be like, literally, if our society didn't wake up to the snake oil sales pitch and change course. I had the same reaction to books, like Orwell's 1984, which I read at the time.
Well guess what. We didn't wake up, and we're addicted to the snake oil. The future is now. The facetious and fictional descriptions of a horrible future is no longer fiction; these same works at present are just straightforward and factual descriptions of our society. Test this out for yourself. If you've read Orwell, listened to the Dead Kennedys, or anything similar, yet it's been a long time, go back and revisit it. I am absolutely certain the experience will be quite enlightening, as well as disturbing and shocking.
Given the CNN trial balloon, and what in reality was scarcely any reaction to it, I now see the cancellation of the elections and installation of an overt dictatorship as a substantial probability event. If this bullshit happens, I'm out of here. While at present I don't know where I can go or how I can get there, I'll figure something out. I've personally been bothered by the creeping fascism for almost 25 years now. I just can't take this horseshit anymore.
Posted 17 July 2004 - 03:40 AM
Yeah, unfortunately you are so eloquantly right.Yes, these are trial balloons to see how much the public will let them get away with. The shrub regime wants nothing more than to cancel the elections and initiate an overt dictatorship, which of course is fully backed by and would fulfill a long-time dream of the Plutocracy. We are living in a present that is the end-game of a game started decades ago.
Time to cock'a-trigger and take a stand, like they did at Concord so long ago.
Posted 17 July 2004 - 06:52 AM
It is actually 3K that triggers some paperwork. WTSHTF your money may not be safe in a bank.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.
Posted 17 July 2004 - 07:11 AM
With respect to the operation of the site....opening up in Explorer on any number of different computers around the country caused a total lock up of Explorer, requiring a Force Quit. Frequently this was associated with a white small horizontal box which would launch over the top of your site as the site was loading - in an effort to tell me something, but the white box would not fill with text prior to the lock up. Many times these issues on my home computer (a Mac) have been in relation to the funny music or voice files you frequently serve up as visitors first log on. These instances have frequently caused me to have to restart my entire computer, as evereything locks up...including my trading web site.
It's likely either related to the opening pop-ups, the WAV files, or the Matrix.
Given the fact that there is no buggier site on the entire Internet, I'm inclined to believe it's the Matrix at work.
Posted 17 July 2004 - 07:47 AM
Here's one to consider....Steelcase (SCS)
The Steelcase Headquarters is quite literally within walking distance of my childhood home in Grand Rapids. As an office furniture manufacturer, you might imagine that their business was profoundly impacted by the tech bust. Driving by their facilities on my recent visit was telling. Empty parking lots. This once proud pillar of "The Furniture City's" economy (with their glittering, chrome-wheeled semi fleet) has been decimated. I don't know what they are going to do with the monstorous buildings they presently hold as "assets" (some of which are presently sitting idle), but the economy in the Midwest is not likely to support a seller's market for factory-sized buildings. It is quite likely that these assets are vastly overstated in value.
It would seem that the only way to keep the Ten Year Yield stuffed down is with poor jobs numbers from the Department of Disinformation. In their recent Quarterly report, Steelcase stated that the promise of a stronger jobs market is what was causing them to be optimistic about their future prospects, despite posting yet another quarterly loss.
Given these realities (not to mention competition from low cost imports AND the high price of steel) - with SCS rolling over hard at significant resistance (with a PE of 145), this may just be a safe short bet. If you believe that jobs data will be strong, don't short this stock. Don't let reality influence your decision...just try to read the minds behind the disinformation...or better yet, get your hands on a copy of the script.
Everything you wanted to know about the West Michigan Office Furniture companies:
Posted 17 July 2004 - 08:08 AM
Home. Feel the warm fuzzies creeping into the nether regions of your mind? Chestnuts roasting on a open fire. Tire swings hanging from the big elm out back. Images of rooms full of family gathering at the big table for the Thanksgiving feast.
Even the carpet stain in the corner where Sparky as a puppy lifted his leg on the Christmas tree evokes fond memories.
This is why the real estate industry sells homes, not houses. A house is just a big box with windows. A house is something that will deteriorate over time and require repairs and upkeep. A home on the other hand gains character and charm, though most outsiders might wonder what's so charming about curling shingles and peeling paint.
Land. They aren't making any more of it! Get your piece of dirt before it's all gone! A farmer looks at a piece of land in terms of what it can produce in income and the return on investment with primary concerns being water and access to market. A business looks at land in much the same way, though depending on whether it is manufacturing, distribution or retail, location and transportation access are the prime concerns with taxation and utility access coming in a close second. Even with all of the thought and calculations that go into these types of property purchases, it is said that a commercial piece of property doesn't reach it's true value until it has changed hands 2 or 3 times. And yes you guessed it normally that true value is well below the orignal acquisition and construction costs.
A home buyer is concerned with location, location, location, which means different things to different buyers. To some it's view and privacy, while others may be concerned with proximity to medical services, shopping or schools. All want "nice", "safe" neighborhoods with low crime rates and low taxes, though few really think about taxes until after the fact.
The real difference between a commercial real estate buyer and a home buyer is the commercial buyer is basing his decision on rational factual information. A home buyer is a hormone charged water bag of emotion already envisioning Suzy on the tire swing out back and in today's environment is rubbing his hands in aniticpation of the fabulous appreciation they'll garner just by living there and wearing things out. All accomplished with a zero down, interest only adjustable rate mortgage with a payment that is 50% of income.
Of course the myth is that they might actually ever own their home. Even if you pay cash for a home, you'll never "own" it. Don't believe me? Stop paying the "rent" or property tax as some call it, and see how much you really "own".
It used to be you got out of college, got your first real job, maybe got married and had a kid or two and by the time you were 35 you had saved enough for the 20% down payment on the house you were going to live in until you died or retired and moved to Florida. Now I see so many in their 50s or even early 60s taking on new mortgages for houses that are twice the size of the one they lived in while they had kids at home. And no sireee bob, there won't be any of that tacky fromica or vinyl flooring in this beauty. It's acres of granite and spanish tile. It's 3.5 baths in a house occupied by two people, unless you count the kids that are moving back in because they can't cut it in the real world. It's the 80s "me" generation getting their "just" rewards no matter how much they have to borrow.
No need to worry about anything as mundane as "saving". Your 401K will be there when you retire or at the very least the appreciation on the house will put you on easy street, and after all with social security and medicare you'll always have "enough". In Vegas they call this betting on the come. I might refer to it as premature ejaculation.
The "greatest generation that ever lived" spawned the most selfish, inwardly focused, indulgent generation that ever lived, commonly known as the boomers. There was a glimmer of hope for them in the 60's and early 70s when they tuned in and dropped out, but by the time they got over protesting in college, paid for by that "greatest generation", and traded in their love beads for a Brooks Brother's suit, all of that was forgotten as they decided that greed was good and it's all about "me". Hence the "me" generation of the 80s. Asleep at the helm, they allowed the government to grow into the monster we have today, though some of the blame in the early years of expansion clearly lies with the greatest generation which in the depression era learned of suckling at the government teat and found it all good. Post war, the relief effect and what likely was a more justifiable reward for surviving the war and saving the world from Hitler and Hirohito, their focus was not on what the government was doing which enabled the federal government to begin quietly growing into the monster that has consumed most of what America used to stand for.
Makes you wonder how the echo boomers spawned by the "me" generation are going to turn out. What remains of the "greatest generation" now is mostly stuffed in nursing homes, ignored by their spawn, and are wards of the state after their remaining resources were liquidated or converted by their spawn so they could qualify for government subsidies. Guess they got their reward too. Hopefully the spawn of the "me" generation has been carefully observing their parent's actions so they will know how to handle it when their parents become a burden or a problem. My guess is the "me" generation will get exactly what it deserves, which is not likely the same as they expect.
Posted 17 July 2004 - 08:41 AM
For those Stoolies who may be uninitated as to National Emergencies or the
Emergency Powers Acts, here are some starters......
Since March 9, 1933, the United States has been in a state of declared national emergency. In fact, there are now in effect four presidentially-proclaimed states of national emergency: In addition to the national emergency declared by President Roosevelt in 1933, there are also the national emergency proclaimed by President Truman on December 16, 1950, during the Korean conflict, and the states of national emergency declared by President Nixon on March 23, 1970, and August 15, 1971.
These proclamations give force to 470 provisions of Federal law. These hundreds of statutes delegate to the President extraordinary powers, ordinarily exercised by the Congress, which affect the lives of American citizens in a host of all-encompassing manners. This vast range of powers, taken together, confer enough authority to rule the country without reference to normal Constitutional processes.
Under the powers delegated by these statutes, the President may:
seize property; organize and control the means of production; seize commodities; assign military forces abroad; institute martial law; seize and control all transportation and communication; regulate the operation of private enterprise; restrict travel; and, in a plethora of particular ways, control the lives of all American citizens.
Posted 17 July 2004 - 08:51 AM
Another great rant, Yobob.
I considered my "investment" in my Florida home a block from the beach to be just that, an investment, with enough charm and sex appeal to flip whenever I chose. I considered the costs of insurance (as high as anywhere given it's front-row seat for a hurricance) and property taxes as "placeholder costs"...the cost associated with being in this investment for a set period of time in order to receive the upside appreciation upon the sale out of the asset. This was an $11,000 per year placeholder fee, just to be in the game...not to mention the upkeep of a home.
I sold it after 2.5 years for a 50% profit to a hall of fame basketball star, with no broker in the transaction.
When you look at the various markets around the country, you'll see that most are actually flat. When you read about tax incentives that were offered up by the State Of Michigan that led to the shuttering of office furniture plants in the south in order to consolidate operations and "create" a few more jobs in Michigan as a result, you have to ask yourself "who is actually going to pay for the cost of these tax breaks to bring those few hundred jobs to Michigan?" Those who own taxable property!
It's one thing to pay a premium placeholder fee on a train that's moving forward at a rate which justifies the cost of the ride to profitablity, yet quite another to pay increasingly higher placeholder fees (taxes) on increasingly illiquid assets which are at best stagnant, and at worst, depreciating.
Shelter is a relative concept. I have chosen to shelter myself from the coming onslaught of placeholder taxes, by not owning anything worthy of taxation. I miss the concept of "Home" - and in fact I really miss the tremendous log and stucco home I designed and built and lived in for two years near Aspen...but the Placeholder costs to have stayed in that place, as the market actually has dropped while the taxes have risen, simply made far less sense than selling out at the top of that market in 2000 to a Wall Street broker who payed cash.
People fool themselves when they say that their home is not an investment. On the one hand, they are quite content to borrow against it to support their overconsumptive lifestyles...and brag about how much it has appreciated in value over the years...while on the other hand they can proclaim it is not an investment. You really can't have it both ways.
Home ownership is a guarantee of increasingly high taxation. The cost of "ownership" will rise exponentially relative to the potential upside. When homes begin to be viewed more like RVs or Yachts, as depreciating assets which require increasing costs to maintain...all while the placeholder fees continue to rise to pay for all of the unkeepable promises made by State and Local Governments...then these poor folks will look at how much money they have sunk into "Martha-izing" these boxes with the assumption that the costs of the placeholder fees and the upgrades would result in Profits...and they will hit the point of recognition.
The American Dream as portrayed by Lifestyles Of The Rich & Famous and the millions of aspirational affluent lifestyle images and messages bombarding us every year has fostered the Great American Myth. Watch Martha and Bob Villa...go to Home Depot, spend like crazy to remodel your home and upgrade your lifestyle, and you will be rewarded with riches in the end, as fools with big sacks of cash arrive on your doorstep to pay you for all of your effort.
The only problem is...everybody bought into the Great American Myth, their lives are tied to these overvalued boxes, and more of them will be trying to get off the train than trying to get on the train. The race toward homeownership will turn into a race to deleverage from homeownership...all to escape the placeholder fees in an illiquid and depreciating market. Only then will they truly know that their home ALWAYS WAS an investment more than a shelter.
Behold - The Lifestyles of Fitch & Ramous
Posted 17 July 2004 - 08:55 AM
The Dallas Morning News reports that the clunky old CPI index is starting to get some competition from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index maintained by the Commerce Department.
Well, competition sounds good, doesn't it? We all know that the CPI is artificially suppressed, in order to hold down the govenment's pension and interest costs.
But read on a little further:
* Sigh *
Same sheet, different day. The existing "lowest of two" choice (CPI and CPI-core) isn't good enough. Now we're degenerating to a "lowest of three" trifecta in the "race to the bottom" to find the most downwardly distorted inflation rate.
And the dirtbag borkers love it!
Might as well roll another joint ...
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
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