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B4 The Bell Thursday July 14


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#16 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:27 AM

No Thursday July 14! :o Just testing to see if anyone noticed! :P

Hmmm. Retail sales weak, the MoGauge just bouncing along the bottom even with lower long term rates. Let's see if anyone expected retail sales to come in weak:

Hiding Bear Posted on: May 20 2004, 09:16 PM

Very quick take on the Money Supply, etc..

The boom in the money supply is rapidly wearing off and on the verge of reversing. In my opinion the little spring boomlet in the money supply was caused by the lagged effect of the March mini-housing boom and unknown central banks that continue to buy the US$. Japan is out of the game but China, and maybe Taiwan - because of fears of new saber rattling encounters with China - are putting a lot of dollars into the US. This is keeping the dollar strong and also preventing the bond market from collapsing.

I expect June economic statistics to show a marked down turn from May's.

Just to set the record straight, about 3 or 4 months ago I said taht the weakness would be evident by the edge of Summer. And so it has come to pass.

From here on out the desperation mode will kick in as retailers begin to try and unload merchandise, as the car companies are now doing. Unfortunately, those very measures at this stage of the game may have just the opposite effect. Consumers are the walking wounded right now and those left with some purchasing power are more likely to wait for a better deal as the desperation grows more intense. And so the spiral begins.

#17 Drano

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:31 AM

Gotta leave for the day now. The last time this happened in a similar setup for me (similar conditions and I was away for the day) there was a big move, in both directions. Sigh. At least I'm about 40% short.

Good luck to all -- but save some of the downmove for me tomorrow :P
Of course I'm caustic!

#18

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:32 AM

Regarding water in the west...

Keep in mind that water flows toward money.  With that in mind, picture the western United States as seen from space, and picture Las Vegas as a giant drain...the water that flows toward which is flushed and lost from the west forever.

If all water rights in the west are for sale to the highest bidder, it will all flow toward the most money, which ironically is delivered to Las Vegas by the sheeple daily, who are pissing away their retirment money, and the west's water, all at the same time.

About twenty years ago, I began to write a treatment for a movie to be entitled "Water Wars"..a futuristic view of what Las Vegas would represent to the west...the epicenter of greed, excess and gluttony, with money and water flowing in from thousands of miles away, while the balance of the west wilts.

Left unchecked, in a free market, Las Vegas casino operators would own all the water available for purchase in a few short years.  The economics are simple enough.  There is no other entity who is more incented to ensure that the toilets flush than the mega casino owners.

Of course Vegas would be paying the top market price while simultaneously forcing water costs up for everyone else and driving many people out of the region collapsing a significant portion of the West Coast economy. Since Vegas derives it's income from people gambling away their disposable (and their not so disposable income) one might ask who would be able to gamble in Vegas so that they could afford the water in the first place?

Ultimately Vegas would shrink without the huge support they garner from the sheeple who live in driving proximity to Vegas. Vegas shrinks and the price of water falls . Eventually some sort of equilibrium would occur.

Would their be a great deal of turmoil and pain while this process occurs? Definitely. That's how things work in the real world without govt. distortions.

Exactly...that's why I view Vegas as such a symbol of everything that is wrong. It will feed on itself until nothing remains. All short term greed-based thinking to serve the needs of those in a position to extract every last drop of value prior to leaving the skeletal remains to be picked over by the remaining scavengers.

No different than Wall Street.

#19 brian4

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:33 AM

stop 1114!

#20 machinehead

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:33 AM

SOX 427 ... new low for 2004!

XBD 118 ... ditto!
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

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#21 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:35 AM

Silver is saluting the flag this morning. Looks like those shorts should have covered yesterday, but they got greedy again.

#22 machinehead

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:35 AM

Exactly...that's why I view Vegas as such a symbol of everything that is wrong.

Then Federal Reserve headquarters should be in Vegas ... at the top of the Luxor.

It resembles the Masonic pyramid on the reverse side of the dollah bill ...
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#23 Hiding Bear

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:36 AM

No Thursday July 14! :o  Just testing to see if anyone noticed! :P

Hmmm.  Retail sales weak, the MoGauge just bouncing along the bottom even with lower long term rates.  Let's see if anyone expected retail sales to come in weak:

Hiding Bear Posted on: May 20 2004, 09:16 PM

Very quick take on the Money Supply, etc..

The boom in the money supply is rapidly wearing off and on the verge of reversing. In my opinion the little spring boomlet in the money supply was caused by the lagged effect of the March mini-housing boom and unknown central banks that continue to buy the US$. Japan is out of the game but China, and maybe Taiwan - because of fears of new saber rattling encounters with China - are putting a lot of dollars into the US. This is keeping the dollar strong and also preventing the bond market from collapsing.

I expect June economic statistics to show a marked down turn from May's.

Just to set the record straight, about 3 or 4 months ago I said taht the weakness would be evident by the edge of Summer. And so it has come to pass.

From here on out the desperation mode will kick in as retailers begin to try and unload merchandise, as the car companies are now doing. Unfortunately, those very measures at this stage of the game may have just the opposite effect. Consumers are the walking wounded right now and those left with some purchasing power are more likely to wait for a better deal as the desperation grows more intense. And so the spiral begins.

Nice analysis and timing. :) Just making the point the strong May economic indicators were more of a fluke than a trend.

Like you said, consumers must now be the walking wounded since they have failed to respond in Pavolvian fashion to lower long term rates. Looks more like credit card and mortgage refinancings are in the past, and home buyers in the Southwest may have second thoughts about who is really going to pay more than them for an overpriced property.

#24 brian4

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:42 AM

Launch all Anvils-ay Capt. anvils away, blast shield up, warp speed Scotty, warp speed!

#25 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:46 AM

I don't know if this was posted in my absence, but...990N further explained:

http://www.guerrilla...y&Number=311381

If you look at the emini S&P during periods of narrow movement, you will
see between 1,000 and 2,000 cars at each of the first 5 prices either
side of the last (5 is all the CME transmits). The implication is that it
will take at least 7,500 (assuming an average of 1,500 at each level) to
move the market 5 ticks in any direction.

If it were such levels of volume that actually moved the market, I would
have no problem with the sizes that I see at these levels. However, when
the market does move out of these narrow ranges, it does so on very
little or no volume. Typically, those five ticks are covered with less
than 1K cars being traded - often much less.

IMO, that is the REAL level of liquidity in this market. The rest of the
size at these prices is all smoke and mirrors. If not, then one would
have to stretch the imagination and believe that 6,500 of these contracts
are all being pulled in unison by as many as 100s if not 1000s of
different traders across the globe all at the same instant. Yes -that
could happen occasionally but this is happening multiple times during the
day - every day. Miraculously, once the move is complete on so few
trades, the thousands of contracts re-appear to once again ‘collar' the
market.

So, to stretch credulity even further, one would then have to believe
that these same unconnected traders who lifted all those orders in
unison, now put them back on again in equally perfect harmony.
Once the collar is back on, I have seen as many as 100K cars traded over
the next 3,4 hours and the market will spend most of that time in a 5
tick range with very brief excursions outside it (e.g. see 6/21 from
10:30 until 2:00 ET). So a 5 tick range that is traversed easily on [1K
cars is then unable to breakout of a 5 tick range for hours despite ]
100K being traded ??

It is far more likely that the market is being controlled and that those
sizes are being placed (and lifted), not by 100s or 1000s of unconnected
traders but by just one or two entities.

Great to see you back Plunger and nice find
Things just arent the same without our human search engine.

looks like 990n is back in the house
Staying short with loose stops and loving the failed silver attack
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#26 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:48 AM

IBM has now given back all the MS upgrade and more
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#27 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:53 AM

One of my favs HHH
CLIFFDIVE
Dollar getting thumped
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#28 machinehead

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:53 AM

SOX 421, getting sicker.

The tech VCR is on "rewind." :lol:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#29 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 10:00 AM

Retail sales down 1.1%
Further rate hikes?
Forget it times 1000
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#30 Hiding Bear

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Posted 14 July 2004 - 10:07 AM

Retail sales down 1.1%
Further rate hikes?
Forget it times 1000

Plunger is back in time for this - Fed open market operations web site not working. what are they up to now?

Bears be careful until the smoke clears here, but hold onto PMs for another bounce up.





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