Four Year Cycle Topped?
68 replies to this topic
Posted 02 August 2004 - 08:51 AM
Here's one of my Dow 30 charts with Gann Square High overlay, FIB from 87 low, and major TL... Largest supportive confluence a around 6000+-1000 is as close as I can get to where we may end up but I still feel strongly we are getting a larger retracement of the post-1995 bubble run up.
1987 low to top 50% retrace is a@ 6800, so yes there is one specific support area there.
Posted 05 August 2004 - 08:58 PM
Despite today's big drop, no CT signal to short. HI-5 continues to exhibit a bullish divergence as we drop to new lows for the year and bit below the "range"
CT still sitting in cash.
Posted 07 August 2004 - 09:11 AM
Housing, construction, mortgage technicals all at "cross-roads" The construction index H&S I had not noticed. Housing market very soft here in Wisconsin this summer compared to last few years and a lot more for sale signs staying up.
Posted 11 August 2004 - 09:21 AM
Semi's could put on a nice IT rally now that the 5WD looks complete and we have a
potential 2B bottom here with bullish divergence forming now on this 5th wave down. We come back up through prior bottom price buy and put stop just below this last bottom. Watch for rally up to the TL connecting to declining wave tops.
Posted 11 August 2004 - 09:27 AM
HGX looks to be coiling for a big move but which way??? Most here think it will be down and I tend to agree primarily since technical reasons indicate the low interest rate bonanza is over and the economy is not as strong as it is being propagandized.
Posted 12 August 2004 - 04:17 PM
My CubeTrader system continues to stay stuck in cash during most of this decline having only captured the first leg of it and I am quite honestly baffled as to why it has not positioned us for more short trades in here. I remain confident my longer term indicators have accurately marked a major top for the year at the end of June. There have been ongoing bullish divergences on many common oscillators such as RSI and LT Stochastics as we go down on daily SP and NDX daily charts.
I had been really looking forward to the first short trade when the LT indicators went negative as this has usually been a very profitable trade, so I am disappointed here that we have so far only caught a small chunk of it,
but heck, any time you make money instead of loose it in the trading biz one should be happy.
Things just keep getting weirder and weirderer with this market!
Crude continues to climb, no new jobs creation, stagnant personal incomes, trade, government and personal debt continues to climb exponentially, and now the Fed is in tightening mode.
And the market barely stumbles.
ALL THAT HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN BAD FOR EQUITIES IS NOW GOOD.
Posted 18 August 2004 - 09:07 AM
$50+/barrel after we break this minor resistance area.
It is approaching recession inducing magnitude (look at price moves prior to other recessions).
Oil Service Sector offering another buying opportunity in current pull-back.
Posted 14 September 2004 - 07:41 PM
Cubetrader still in cash with LT pointing down, ST pointing up...
Dynamic Trend Filter still positive on SP 500.
Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:24 AM
Anybody have any EW counts for OIH?
I expect crude to bottom out here and stay above 40, then go back up to highs.
Another op to get in here, looks fantasticly bullish
Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:43 AM
SOX bullish divergence finally popped ST rally, heavy congestion zone 350-400 and could get stuck consolidating in here quite some time before the next move down...if it does get up to the pink TL another great shorting opportunity will present itself. Good luck ST long gunners in here!
Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:29 PM
Very close once again to getting a short signal...today's action very sickly and FCS on DIA and SPY signalled short but not on the QQQ just quite yet-stay tuned!
Posted 15 September 2004 - 10:44 PM
I'm firmly convinced that Dow will hang around 10k until after the elections, that somehow it will end up displaying a valid EWave pattern, what that could be at this point, I remain Clueless on..
The whole action in the markets since the Oct-2002 bottom has been nothing more than corrective waves and patterns, no overall impulsive upsides; no overall impulsive downsides -- Nothing to say its a bull after the significant 2.8 yr decline from 2000, so the trend has theoretically never changed from bear. Its all one Big Mess of a Correction which someday will lead to the next impulsive down leg. It will take everyone by surprise, but by then enough people will have been bored out of the markets that it may no longer matter!
Posted 16 September 2004 - 12:09 AM
What sofware are you using to create your charts?
Posted 16 September 2004 - 06:32 PM
Well, I know this year has been a mess but overall I am still sticking to the giant corrective wave 2 instead of B theory. So far that count is still valid and this rally that led up to this current mess (and what I believe is another large REVERSAL structure) was quite sharp and broad. Most of the time wave 2's are zig zags or flats rarely complex corrections which wave 4's often do tend to be. Then again if this turns into a really big, choppy messy thing such as a triangular wave it more likely is a giant B wave BUT STILL we have one more impulse DOWN and C are usually at least 1:1 of A so another 2000-2002 type bear. So the final outcome is the same just if its a wave 2 I expect it to end sooner and wave 3 start down. If its a B chances are we could have to deal with quite a mess for year or even longer.
Just looking at possibilities and odds but watch it fool us all, that's why I system trade with most of my trading capital but this has been a very low signal, low profit year, but in the black at least.
Waiting for the HUI and gold to start moving again but sitting on my hands ...I don't expect much until next year and still think the dollar is in a larger degree correction in the midst of a massive bear plunge!
THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO UNDERLYING IMPROVEMENTS BY TRADITIONAL MEASURES IN OUR ECONOMY SUPPORTING THIS MARKET, it is obvious what's held the economy up are low interest rates and credit expansion. Is this part of a normal transition of our economy to a FINANCE AND SERVICE driven system? Is it a sustainable growth mechanism creating new employment and greater incomes? So far the evidence seems to strongly suggest NOT! Many others here at Stoolville have a much greater depth of understanding on matters of finance and economics and the now ALL important RE market, than I. That is why I love this board and there is no other on the web like it.
Primarily METASTOCK (available here from Doc) feature laden, easy to use, can port most stuff over to it, and I like how easy it is to program my own indicators and systems, FCS was ported over to it. Best deal for the money.
Can add indicators that are from external sources (Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine is MY FAVORITE RESOURCE for new ideas and usually has MS formulas included)
Advanced Get (AGET) (Has some great proprietary features like TJ Ellipses)
Neuroshell Trader Professional (strictly for my FCS system developement)
Dynamic Trader (DT) (Like it best for EW,very hard to learn)
Gannalyst (most of my Gann work done on this and Metastock)
Gann Trader 3 (rarely)
Fibonnacci Galactic Trader (rarely)
So what I am saying is I use a lot of different software depending on the type of analysis I am doing but if you are going to spend some money, first one to get is Metastock!
Posted 18 September 2004 - 09:17 AM
CT remains in cash...
Early September time confluence did not result in a pivot, now must watch closely around the equinox (22nd).
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