Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

Four Year Cycle Topped?


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
68 replies to this topic

#16 MrHankydoesWallStreet

MrHankydoesWallStreet

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,157 posts

Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:38 AM

RE Bubble????

Attached Images

  • IYR7.13.04.gif


#17 MrHankydoesWallStreet

MrHankydoesWallStreet

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,157 posts

Posted 14 July 2004 - 11:32 AM

Cubetrader just signaled get out!

closing QQQ short trade now
filled at 35.61 ,got 1.74 points or 4.7 % gain




Didn't enter any potential trades...today's open not conducive. NEM gapped up a bit and took off so didn't get in either, backing off now.
Gotta go now. Still have AMTD,WM shorts and NEM buy on watch.

C Ya!

#18 jr12

jr12

    Stock Proctology Intern

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 253 posts

Posted 14 July 2004 - 09:29 PM

"THE FOUR YEAR CYCLE HAS TOPPED"

Mr H, assuming 4 year cycle lows in October 02, and September 98. The peak in the Dow Jones was 71 weeks after the Sep 98 low, it then went sideways/down for another 71 weeks, then down hard for another 72 weeks. If we followed a similar pattern for the present 4 year cycle (highly unlikley, but you never know), 71 weeks after the Oct 02 low is the present high in Feb, another 71 weeks is July 05, where there is a fibonacci turn date, then down towards the end of 06

Attached Images

  • dow_cycle.gif


#19 MrHankydoesWallStreet

MrHankydoesWallStreet

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,157 posts

Posted 15 July 2004 - 02:52 PM

71 weeks after the Oct 02 low is the present high in Feb, another 71 weeks is July 05, where there is a fibonacci turn date, then down towards the end of 06



jr,
Fascinating observation...all my staring at charts and I never noticed that both had 71 weeks from trough to peak! Add this to numerous other factors and it's a safe to bet the top is in. Time for bears to come out of hibernation and do what they do best, make money on the down cycle.
My first short Cube Trade turned in a nice profit so we are off to a good start!
Thanks for the great charts and analysis.

Very Best Regards,
Hank

#20 MrHankydoesWallStreet

MrHankydoesWallStreet

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,157 posts

Posted 17 July 2004 - 09:08 AM

OIH beautiful action this week :rolleyes:

Pull-back to the break out TL another excellent op to enter or add!

Attached Images

  • OIH7.16.04.gif


#21 MrHankydoesWallStreet

MrHankydoesWallStreet

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,157 posts

Posted 17 July 2004 - 09:22 AM

CT in cash signalled us out "early" but I think we go back to bottom of range and then bounce back up to the MA where we are on the verge of a very bearish 50/200 DMA cross-over

Attached Images

  • QQQ7.16.04.gif


#22 traderfromhell

traderfromhell

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 18 July 2004 - 06:00 AM

Hank always enjoy your postings on the stool. Do you hear anyone other than the usual suspects on Crapvision and maybe Don Wollanchuk who is not a long term bear? Maybe this is a contrary indicator? Mind you I would not be bullish after an 18 year runup but maybe we get a major buy spike and then finally crash? Thoughts?
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#23 MrHankydoesWallStreet

MrHankydoesWallStreet

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,157 posts

Posted 18 July 2004 - 10:01 AM

Mind you I would not be bullish after an 18 year runup but maybe we get a major buy spike and then finally crash? Thoughts?



TFH,
I do not think a 87 "crash" type scenario very likely because we are already down quite a ways from the 2000 highs. But if we have another big run up (buy spike)for a double top type situations in SP and DOW (impossible in Nas I think) a crash is more probable. We do have a potential here from EW to enter a massive third wave down but this would unfold over a period of months or even years and don't know if you would then use the term crash but it would be bad enough and precede very difficult economic times. Dieter Sornette's model still suggests this is definitely "in the cards"
The other LT scenario is stuck in a big range (SP 750-1550 )like the last secular bear for the next 15-20 years. Seems already some are looking at this like Ike's guest this week, Stan Harley. But the rule of alternation puts some doubts on this happening but the Nikme played the range quite a while there before breaking out of it to the downside.
The only thing that I am very certain of is Dow 10000 plus a bit will still be the upper end until this secular bear is over many years from now.
I think mostly what makes me bearish and 3rd waveish instead of rangebound are the charts of some of the international markets and wow the brokers/dealers all have huge H&S formations some just broke the neckline others about to. They look bad and now housing,construction,mortgage related stocks are starting to look real fragile.
We all know this is primarily what has kept the economy strong. The new age cyclicals ie semis are in a bear market already no doubt. And there is a curious trend non-uniformity in that box makers, teles, and internuts are holding up but they are all market interdependent on the semi's?????
On a sidenote, I just took my lovely girlfriend up to the Oneida Casino Entertainment complex to see Natalie Cole perform. They both are fantastic
women! The casino was packed like I have never seen it in my life. The parking lot full of shiney new SUV's, luxury sedans, and expensive imports. It was one massive party seen. Everyone was laughing, dancing, eating, drinking, gambling,singing, just having a grand time, the mood was nothing short of ecstatic. A large addition to the complex is under construction nearby and the airport across the street was very busy. And as I took it all in, I just kept thinking to myself, really, just how much better can things get?

Regards,
Hank

#24 flockofsheeples

flockofsheeples

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,288 posts

Posted 19 July 2004 - 10:45 AM

hank-in green bay?
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

#25 traderfromhell

traderfromhell

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 19 July 2004 - 05:46 PM

Hank agreed no way they can get the Naz back up to 5000. This is setting up a whopper of a non-confirmation in the avgs. Dow 30 can make a new high but the sp and the Naz can no way confirm. Lucky guy with the girl Hanky.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#26 MrHankydoesWallStreet

MrHankydoesWallStreet

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,157 posts

Posted 24 July 2004 - 05:50 PM

hank-in green bay?

Ya der heh der fer sure, how bout dem packers, ehhh???
Going back up to Resch to see CHER (for the girl not me)!

CT in cash.
Bottom of of range with bullish HI-5 divergence now in place, as anticipated. Long or cash, no shorting here...but we are third watch. If we bounce a bit and break down it will be HARD. Hopefully CT will catch it and position us short.

Hank

Attached Images

  • NDX7.22.04.gif


#27 MrHankydoesWallStreet

MrHankydoesWallStreet

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,157 posts

Posted 25 July 2004 - 07:59 AM

OIH = STRONG BUY!

Mr Hanky has already loaded up on these ( see prior posts many moons ago) and enjoying a nice profit.
But for those of you who are not:

Attached Images

  • OIH7.22.04.gif


#28 MrHankydoesWallStreet

MrHankydoesWallStreet

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,157 posts

Posted 28 July 2004 - 06:51 PM

CT still says cash. ST signal is long. MT & LT are short.

Is this w:3:1 and the start of a freefall OR one of those nasty "X" waves connecting us to another sideways corrective structure?
Beats the H out of me!
Sure is having trouble keeping the parachute deployed in here but CT still says the odds are in favor of more upside ST.
The bearish 50/200 day SMA cross over is complete!

Pattern wise we are at the bottom of an established range = go long with stops just below. And continue to have some bullish indicator divergences as we chop down.

Hank

Attached Images

  • QQQ7.28.04.gif


#29 MrHankydoesWallStreet

MrHankydoesWallStreet

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,157 posts

Posted 31 July 2004 - 07:57 AM

Bounce in progress, waiting for next CT short signal. In meantime, this rolled over and turned bearish this week:

Attached Images

  • MastOSC7.30.04.gif


#30 traderfromhell

traderfromhell

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 31 July 2004 - 09:54 AM

Until we can take out 1165 or so in the SP I can't get bullish. We need to take out the triple bottom for the crash scenario to come into play. Hank do you have some support in the 6600-6800 level in the Dow 30?

Attached Images

  • sp_4yr_chart.gif

Don't steal. The government hates competition.





Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart