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B4 The Bell Weak-End Den July 2 - 5


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#61 Hypertiger

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 05:12 PM

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Above is what the current debt inflationary self delusional bubble looks like...It is the biggest such bubble in the 311 year history of the city of London (Crown) system...The total household debt line is part of the total debt line, I've just singled it out...All other lines below the total debt line are derivatives of it...

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This snapshot starts at 1960, sorry...But you can see that the Household debt has grown larger then Wages (Prior to 1985 wages were greater then debt) and almost surpassed personal income...When the debt to income ratio goes past 100% consumers who were previously caught up in a borrow more and more dynamic begin to slow then reverse into a borrow less and less dynamic...

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Above is a log chart for the log chart babies...looks like consumers are reaching maximum potential...Debt is growing but all the derivatives of it are slowing in growth...sure the debt inflation is significant but realisticly inadequate to sustain the debt inflationary self delusional bubble...A debt inflationary explosion that causes Doug Nolan's eyes to spin like a slot machine better show up real soon.

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Above is a crude doodle...I used GDP ratios to figure it out...US GDP in 1929 was 100 Billion...You can see what happens when maximum potential is reached and the borrow more and more dynamic reverses into a borrow less and less dynamic...

The FED reported total debt is currently 302% of GDP, on the above chart I used a third party estimate of 37 Trillion so it could be off by 3 Trillion...Since the FED does not release any statistics prior to 1950 it is hard to get an accurate picture but it is good enough for me...

Next up Hypocracy...I noticed Bearister mentioning my 'Hyperbole"...

Here's some more...

When the "inevitable" hyperdeflationary implosion takes place...those who think they are or have been "fisted" are going to come to the crystal clear realization that they did not know what in the hell they were talking about...

Now the minimum window is 27 days...Right now I don't think it will be hit but prior to May I did not think debt inflationary growth was going to slow but it did...

The maximum window is late 2004 to early 2005 since the buzz in Central banking circles is that they want to at least make it past the US elections before the implosion...

That's right folks...It is relentless...there is no escape...we are marching ever forward to the totally natural event known as a systemic hyperdeflationary implosion of a debt backed by debt system...

Which 99.9999% of the population thinks is a total impossibility...but it gets more possible every passing second.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 05:15 PM

OK.  If this is the beginning of a "wave 3" (I know, I know, you've heard this before), then we must  see a bearish impulse wave forming. 

Spoos look as though they are doing just that...

I don't see any alternation between waves 2 and 4 in that count, SJ.

MC,

By my understanding of the rule of alternation (which is more of a guideline than a rule), seems to me that count complies.

Corrective Wave 2 is a flat so we would expect corrective Wave 4 to be something other than a flat -- a zigzag or a triangle. In this case we find a triangle -- triangles almost always are Wave 4 affairs.

If you disagree, MC, please explain.

SJ, I think the question of whether alternation is a rule or a guideline depends on whom you ask.

One of the main ways I interpret alternation is between sideways corrections (triangles & most flats) and sharp ones (zigzags & expanded/irregular flats).

That said I believe there is a chance that the move down is impulsive, but I am just not convinced the way you had labelled it is quite right. . . I see a possible leading diagonal followed by a more conventional zigzag wave 2.

#63 machinehead

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 05:17 PM

Got a call from a bail bondsman this morning ... a long-time but distant acquaintance had given him my number at the jail ... maybe because she has no family and few (solvent) friends in the area. The bail on a misdemeanor charge was $5,000, requiring $518.00 cash for the bond company to post it.

I was reminded of yobob's advice to have some paper money at home. Early last year I was keeping extra cash on hand, in the event that I got popped at one of the war protests. But it didn't happen, and I eventually ran through my cash stash.

$500 is the daily limit on the bank ATM, so that amount posed no problem. But it would have taken 2 days to raise $1,000, 3 days to raise $1,500, and 4 days to get $2,000 or more. Ungood when someone's stuck in the poke on a long holiday weekend.

I was thinking, with $5K on hand in a safe, it would be possible to make bond without paying a 10% non-refundable fee for a bail bond.

So I motored down the Parkway to the bail bond office in a funky old N.J. industrial town. The place was not without humor. Crime movie posters on the walls. Al Pacino in Scarface. Marlon Brando in The Godfather. ("What's that guy's name? Didn't he just die yesterday?" a twenty-something woman asked me.)

Another poster was for a film called The Usual Suspects. Sub-headlines: "Five Criminals. One line-up. No coincidence." "The Truth Is Always the Last Place You Look." Ha ha. You perps crack me up.

On the way home, though, I had some second thoughts. Is it really a good idea to show up at a police station these days with a fistful of 5,000 dollars? What if the cops turn the cold fisheye of suspicion on you -- drug dealer? Money launderer? Terrorist? Short seller?

That's the Catch-22: the state demands cash, but cash itself has become suspect. They look at it and wonder if there's cocaine dust on it (which there probably is, though not of my doing).

So I'm inclined to think that "low profile" means paying the 10% bond fee ... unless it's during the week, when you can swing by the bank and get a cashier's check.

Bottom line, one may be as likely to need emergency cash to pay a towing fee/impoundment charge or a bond, as to deal with a system blackout. Either way, the advice of keeping paper money on hand rings true. The real hardcore predators don't accept credit cards ...
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#64 traderfromhell

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 05:33 PM

Another in my camp that thinks the fed won't be raising rates again anytime soon. This is the problem with relying on lagging data most of which is of very questionable accuracy and quality. The fed just raised rates after the economy already started rolling over, which should lead to an acceleration of the roll-over. Note, IMO this does not preclude a rise in longer maturities should global investors (often refered to as bag holders :lol: ) begin to take a dim view of the US for any number of and likely a combination of economic and political reasons.

Uncle Buck should decline. But against what? There is no fundamental difference in any currency on the planet with the one exception of the $US being generally accepted as the reserve currency. I'm not sure any other currency on the planet has enough backing to take on that role for the time being. In essence, for now, we win by default. Once again there are tons of global bag holders, including most of the large central banks, out there owning massive quantiites of every type of our paper. They won't be too keen on having their assets rapidly deflate. So for me Uncle Bucky's immediate future is not a one way bet.

Quite the morass, eh? In theory, no selling of our debt need occur if a simple drop in consumption of the new debt should happen. Prices would fall and yields would climb. Depending of the rate of price decline, selling might ensue with the possible snowball effect. Toss in a rapidly falling currency as a concurrent side-effect and we're looking at a disaster of global proprtions. What we would ultimately be talking about is the failure of governments world wide after the banking systems collapsed. You don't screw with peoples wallets to these extremes without getting revolutions. John Law gone global with the same outcome. The good news is I don't see that happening right away, though there is really no good reason for it not to with only the thin line of confidence binding things together for now.

The boom was pretty much global, certainly on the financial side, and as such the bust will be too. I think we'll see a global depression in time, and not too much time at that. The demands of the credit machine have outstripped it's ability to generate sufficient credit.

One last note about the Fed. In my view, the only reason that the dollar is not already going into the tank is because the other two major currencies - the yen and the euro - are themselves unexciting. After convincing many in recent months that its worst days were over, Japan now says it's not so sure after all that the deflationary grip of the last dozen years has been completely vanquished. Very telling today is that the yen did very little versus the dollar.

As I mentioned earlier, the euro did enjoy a surge against the greenback; however, I view that as more of needing some place else to go (and the euro was the lesser of the evils) rather than anyone getting too charged up about the continent's currency in its own right. It will take a technical break-out in the euro's value to accentuate this trend; otherwise, we might very well see the euro flame out once more


Forget About a "Neutral" Federal Funds Rate

Yobob makes a good point about the dollar vis-a-vis other paper currencies. None of 'em ain't worth jack. Gold and silver will one day sooner rather than later take their place as the only true currencies.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#65 Bizarro-Greenspan

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 05:33 PM

Major Crapper,thanks very much for those China/Asia charts.As a resource speculator,charts like that are nice to look at,excepting that Chinese banking one.

As for demand for metals just pushing the Jello around the plate(fleck.tm),US demand for copper is up large this year,all the other Asian economies are doing alright,besides we run could clean outta copper soon anyway.Plus,hardly any new capacity built in metals production.Plus,some kinda Buckminster Fuller cycle in play here,new capacity needed just to add to new capacity,cool. B)


In future,I can see a Operation:Homeland Infrastucture Rebuild if all these gloomy Gus guys with their deflationary meltdown scenarios pin us print enthusiasts to the mat.Then you need metals,ain't no shortage of freshly printed FRNs to pay for it all.

Let's get busy on that one,AstroBoy,woohoo.

#66 traderfromhell

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 05:37 PM

MJ- I don't buy Nolands- "income up 6% year over year" that has to be a bogus number-most salaries are contracting not expanding and the same applies to the workforce.

I'm inclined to agree with B4 that the figures overstate the real economy. The personal income numbers include the strong growth in employment numbers we have seen these last six months. If employment numbers are wrong, then personal income numbers are wrong.

Disposable income, the figure that GWB keeps referring to, includes tax refunds.
Of course the bigger the tax refund, the greater the disposable personal income. So that figure is growing faster than personal income this year. I presume in 2005 the disposable personal income figure will increase slower than perosnal income due to tax increases.

On the next refi "boom" - it will only be an echo of an echo of an echo of last years "boom".

My business is tightly connected to man hours and manufacturing in the NYC area and this thing comes apart a little more every year. Flipping burgers ain't mfg.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#67 Butterfield 8

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 05:44 PM

Eventually - 2010 - 2012 we will doubtless see the metals boom. against all currencies. At this moment there are radical differences in trade and budget surplusses/ deficits. Best situated are Sweden, Canada, New Zealand, China - maybe Singapore I'm not sure Eurozone countries are a mixed bag.

#68 Pee Brain

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 06:46 PM

HT,

other than the obvious parabolic debt rise, the modest increase in household assets is the most shocking line on that first chart. if the debt did not go to acquiring assets, then WTF? or is it to the point where its just piling debt on top of debt?

thanks for the charts.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#69 stained jeans

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 06:57 PM

That said I believe there is a chance that the move down is impulsive, but I am just not convinced the way you had labelled it is quite right. . . I see a possible leading diagonal followed by a more conventional zigzag wave 2.

MC,

Thanks for the response.

If ya give 10 EW anal cysts the same chart, you're likely to get at least a dozen wave counts (some aren't satisfied with a single interpretation), aren't you? :P

What I am interested in with EW analysis is whether or not I can find an interpretation that supports my conclusions. So what I want to know is if my count violates a rule. In this case, your understanding is that a flat and a triangle do not satisfy the rule of alternation.

My source is Beckman and he doesn't explicitly say that. He claims that zig-zags are most common Wave 2 constructs, flats and triangles most common to Wave 4s. Least likely is for zig-zags to appear in both corrections (but not impossible).

According to my analysis of the hourly chart, Wave 2 is actually an "irregular" flat -- usually these are found in Wave 4 but they do appear as Wave 2s at times. Beckman groups zig-zags, flats, and irregular flats as "simple" constructs while triangles are listed in the chapter on "complex" corrections. In that sense, then, they alternate.

Wave 2 took 21 hours to unfold while both Wave 1 and 3 are of 5 hours duration. Wave 2, then, is a very long wave so Wave 4 should be short -- more like Waves 1 and 3. The triangle looks to have completed in 8 hours so here again I see alternation. By the way, 5 8 and 21 are all Fib numbers. ;)

Whaddya think?

#70 stained jeans

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 07:03 PM

Was looking at the weekly charts and found three major averages with reversals. The Jokes made a simple pivot point reversal last week, while Sux completed a complex pivot reversal three weeks ago. Neither the Spoos, Rusty, nor Nausye show recent reversals.

Nasty is the one I find most interesting, though...

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#71 brian4

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 07:13 PM

I own and hold for the long term-Oil, NG and Gold stocks, I daytrade (actually swing trade) only the Spoo's and for a long while only from the short side. Were we in a Bull Market I would be long intra day as I was prior to the top. A lot of years ago a Mentor that I had taught me a pattern trading system for the Spoo's and the Cubes it is a system that gives an adept, unemotional Trader close to a 2 to 1 edge. I have modified it somewhat over the years so that it suits me and the way I trade. The Spoo's closed Friday at 1125.38 so rounded it's 1125 I put an upper trigger 3 points above at 1128 and a lower trigger 3 points below at 1122. Should the market open up and move past 1128 I short any move that falls back thru the upper trigger and under 1126. Conversely if the market opens down and falls thru 1122 I will short with a 1125 stop. Once I am in a trend and in the money I will loosen the stop until the trend starts moving against me at which point i will ratchet the stop down hard. I always use put strikes that are slightly in the money so i don't get hurt with a 3 point stop. Now you also have to aware of where support and resistance and the pivots are but this little simple system works. Depends has already figured my method out on his own. All I would say is paper trade it and see if it works for you! ;)

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 07:18 PM

Got a call from a bail bondsman this morning ... a long-time but distant acquaintance had given him my number at the jail ... maybe because she has no family and few (solvent) friends in the area. The bail on a misdemeanor charge was $5,000, requiring $518.00 cash for the bond company to post it.

I was reminded of yobob's advice to have some paper money at home. Early last year I was keeping extra cash on hand, in the event that I got popped at one of the war protests. But it didn't happen, and I eventually ran through my cash stash.

$500 is the daily limit on the bank ATM, so that amount posed no problem. But it would have taken 2 days to raise $1,000, 3 days to raise $1,500, and 4 days to get $2,000 or more. Ungood when someone's stuck in the poke on a long holiday weekend.

I was thinking, with $5K on hand in a safe, it would be possible to make bond without paying a 10% non-refundable fee for a bail bond.

So I motored down the Parkway to the bail bond office in a funky old N.J. industrial town. The place was not without humor. Crime movie posters on the walls. Al Pacino in Scarface. Marlon Brando in The Godfather. ("What's that guy's name? Didn't he just die yesterday?" a twenty-something woman asked me.)

Another poster was for a film called The Usual Suspects. Sub-headlines: "Five Criminals. One line-up. No coincidence." "The Truth Is Always the Last Place You Look." Ha ha. You perps crack me up.

On the way home, though, I had some second thoughts. Is it really a good idea to show up at a police station these days with a fistful of 5,000 dollars? What if the cops turn the cold fisheye of suspicion on you -- drug dealer? Money launderer? Terrorist? Short seller?

That's the Catch-22: the state demands cash, but cash itself has become suspect. They look at it and wonder if there's cocaine dust on it (which there probably is, though not of my doing).

So I'm inclined to think that "low profile" means paying the 10% bond fee ... unless it's during the week, when you can swing by the bank and get a cashier's check.

Bottom line, one may be as likely to need emergency cash to pay a towing fee/impoundment charge or a bond, as to deal with a system blackout. Either way, the advice of keeping paper money on hand rings true. The real hardcore predators don't accept credit cards ...

It is always advisable to keep a cash stash at home.

Just be danged sure intra and inter-state travel outside the home area
is covered with other instruments...such as cashiers checks. Even then
the confiscation laws can become operable, but at least the checks have been
drawn on a bank rather than a bundle of cash.

#73 depends

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 07:36 PM

MH - You didn't state the charges, butt in my experience
with my son who got a little wild from time to time, I found that
just letting him sit until court on Monday morning the judge would
let him out on recognizance w/o bail.

It also made him more careful not to get caught again.

The first time I posted bail and it took months to get my money back.

#74 phatbubble

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 07:46 PM

thanks b4, appreciate the time & energy you take.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 08:17 PM

keeping busy.

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