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B4 The Bell Weak-End Den July 2 - 5


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#46 RockLedge

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 02:24 PM

Navy Calls Up Retired Village People!

JAKARTA, Indonesia - U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites) donned a hard hat and tucked a hammer in his belt Friday to perform a version of the Village People's hit "YMCA" at the conclusion of Asia's largest security meeting — which tradition says ends with a night of skit and song.

Powell danced alongside five other U.S. officials dressed in fancy dress and blasted out a version of the 1970s disco classic to the delight of foreign ministers from across the Asia-Pacific and Europe.

"President Bush (news - web sites), he said to me, Colin I need you to run the department of state. We are between a rock and a hard place," Powell and his colleagues sang to the tune of the disco classic.

The after-dinner show is an annual highlight of the ASEAN Regional Forum, a time for ministers to loosen up after discussing security issues. Footage of the closed-door event was obtained by Associated Press Television News .


Colin Powell Sings Village People Song

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#47

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 02:35 PM

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#48 Drano

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 02:53 PM

Depends and Stained Jeans:

Thanks for your charts. Greatly appreciated.
Of course I'm caustic!

#49 mksloth

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 03:05 PM

This looks interesting - for those who want for more desktop real estate.

The sphereXP

Caution - I have not tried it, but if someone has a spare computer to try it on maybe we can see if this is useful.

click on screenshots and videos link and check the videos.  http://www.hamar.sk/sphere/

the extra real-estate, if it comes, will come at a significant expense of CPU cycles. Looks to be the windows version of Looking Glass from Sun - nice idea, but far too far away to even begin to think in terms of potential...

There are other virtual window managers and desktops that are cheaper...

I downloaded it on a spare...pretty neat. Its basically a 3D rendering engine/GUI enabling superimposition of screenshots of open programs and desktop icons. It manipulates these screenshots as textures pasted onto spatially manipulated panels.

Being screenshots, the panels don't display real-time data. R/L/scroll mouse detection enables panel manipulation, as well as double-click re-entry into the "real world" Desktop again. Data feeds, applets (ie, Scottrade Streamer) are not functional and do not update on the 3D matrix. This minimzes its use for "virtual immersion" in the Stock market, as it were.

Doesn't seem to slow anything down in the 15 minutes I've been using it.

Good find. Would make a very poor computer game, but not a bad effort for a solitary programmer. Its also free.

Also get a good "nesting doll effect" by opening a new Sphere program instance within an active sphere. This is helpful for working on business software at work, all the while hiding under a larger shell containing all your casino and porn sites.

The sick mind marches on.

you're a 3D speed freak :grin:

#50 stained jeans

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 03:33 PM

OK.  If this is the beginning of a "wave 3" (I know, I know, you've heard this before), then we must  see a bearish impulse wave forming. 

Spoos look as though they are doing just that...

I don't see any alternation between waves 2 and 4 in that count, SJ.

MC,

By my understanding of the rule of alternation (which is more of a guideline than a rule), seems to me that count complies.

Corrective Wave 2 is a flat so we would expect corrective Wave 4 to be something other than a flat -- a zigzag or a triangle. In this case we find a triangle -- triangles almost always are Wave 4 affairs.

If you disagree, MC, please explain.

#51 Bag Holder

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 03:40 PM

Hot topic "Fahrenheit 9/11" at political stool

#52 stained jeans

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 03:54 PM

I spent most of June converting my short-term model into an overbought-Dover Sole oscillator and here is what it is telling me.  Thursday's high of 1144 brought it up to the same level we saw back on April 5 -- short of the 64+ that historically is needed to trigger a sell-off but close enough, IMO, to call a top.

This indicator I will dub the "SJ Oscillator" for lack of a more inspiring appellation.  I believe this indicator could be a helpful complement to Depend's trend following chart.  We'll see...

SJ - cool B)

If you are so inclined, I would be interested in the formula you developed for calculating your oscillator. I find that knowing how the calculation is done is essential in understanding what an indicator is "saying".

If it's a secret and you don't feel comfortable revealing it - I understand, no worries.

Twig,

My short-term model combines price with two sentiment indicators -- the CBOE p/c ratio and the VXO. The VXO is a very slippery devil so I chose not to include it in the oscillator. I don't want to give away all my secrets, but the oscillator is constructed much like any oscillator (MACD, CCI,RSI, etc.). I developed one oscillator for price based on the Spoos that bounces between +50 and -50. Did the same for the p/c ratio and then simply added them together.

Back-testing five years shows that the Long signals are very reliable. Short signals are less so. Gives false Short signals in the bounces immediately following selling climaxes such as September 2001 and October 2002. Also (unfortunately) at the beginning of strong bull runs like in April 2003.

My interpretation goes like this: had the Spoos broken out above 1151 at the same time the SJ Oscillator moved into the Short zone, I would have been very suspicious of the oscillator and inclined to think that this was another April 2003 thing going on. With the way things unfolded this week, though, I see it as a bearish development.

#53 zensmoke

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 03:55 PM

Have you ever wondered why the Pres and the V.P. start almost every speech with a reference to 911?

COMMUNICATING THE
PRINCIPLES OF PREVENTION & PROTECTION
IN THE WAR ON TERROR
http://mywebpages.co...trios/Luntz.pdf


from the first page of the memo---five talking points to add to speeches:

"WHAT MATTERS MOST
1) “9/11 changed everything” is the context by which everything follows. No speech about homeland security or Iraq should begin without a reference to 9/11.
2) The principles of “prevention and protection” still have universal support and should be addressed prior to talking about Iraq.
3) “Prevention at home can require aggressive action abroad” is the best way to link a principle the public supports with the policies of the Administration. “It is better to fight the War on Terror on the streets of Baghdad than on the streets of New York or Washington.”
4) “Terrorism has no boundaries, and neither should efforts to prevent it.” Talk about how terrorism has taken the lives of the British, the Spanish, Italians, Germans, Israelis, innocents from all across the globe. Remind listeners that this is truly an international challenge. “Americans are not the only target.”
5) “The world is a better place without Saddam Hussein.” Enough said."



The memo was discussed on the show NOW on PBS last night
http://www.pbs.org/n...tics/luntz.html

#54 Hiding Bear

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 04:19 PM

Depends and Stained Jeans:

Thanks for your charts. Greatly appreciated.

Great work gang! :)

Maybe I shouldn't have reduced some shorts on the close after all. :(

#55 stained jeans

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 04:21 PM

Have you ever wondered why the Pres and the V.P. start almost every speech with a reference to 911?

COMMUNICATING THE
PRINCIPLES OF PREVENTION & PROTECTION
IN THE WAR ON TERROR
http://mywebpages.co...trios/Luntz.pdf

Tanks, Zen.

Filthy, lying, manipulative thugs. :angry:

#56 stained jeans

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 04:25 PM

Maybe I shouldn't have reduced some shorts on the close after all. :(

I'm only 5 percent net short. Will add on the first bounce after the 50-day MA falls (assuming, of course, there is one :unsure: ). I'd be more aggressive if the Nasty had broken down but it is still in an uptrend. :(

#57 Hiding Bear

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 04:26 PM

MJ- I don't buy Nolands- "income up 6% year over year" that has to be a bogus number-most salaries are contracting not expanding and the same applies to the workforce.

I'm inclined to agree with B4 that the figures overstate the real economy. The personal income numbers include the strong growth in employment numbers we have seen these last six months. If employment numbers are wrong, then personal income numbers are wrong.

Disposable income, the figure that GWB keeps referring to, includes tax refunds.
Of course the bigger the tax refund, the greater the disposable personal income. So that figure is growing faster than personal income this year. I presume in 2005 the disposable personal income figure will increase slower than perosnal income due to tax increases.

On the next refi "boom" - it will only be an echo of an echo of an echo of last years "boom".

#58 Hiding Bear

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 04:29 PM

SJ
It cant be said enough times..
The resources here are much appreciated.



Dont know if this has been posted but an OUTSTANDING
piece on foreign capital flow into the US.
Unsustainable situation developing. The obsession with the fed is
so misplaced.

Really worth the read...

http://www.contraryi...es/mojuly04.htm

Good article. I've been mentioning that a slowdown from the trillion $ plus pace of dollar accumulation in first quarter to much lower will have great effect on interest rates. Since the end of March we've had a good move up in rates that I think is only taking a breather lately before further up moves.

#59 Hiding Bear

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 04:31 PM

Maybe I shouldn't have reduced some shorts on the close after all. :(

I'm only 5 percent net short. Will add on the first bounce after the 50-day MA falls (assuming, of course, there is one :unsure: ). I'd be more aggressive if the Nasty had broken down but it is still in an uptrend. :(

Tanks. ;) It may take a few days or so to get a clearer signal.

#60 Pee Brain

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Posted 03 July 2004 - 04:45 PM

dont listen to the "OracleOfidahO", he's soooooo negative. :lol:

if noone shows up to buy our debt, Ben will crank up his "new" invention and print more debt. then we will buy our debt with our newly printed debt, and pay ourselves interest on our debt with our debt. geez, its sooooo simple :lol:
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.





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