Bumping Its Head
100 replies to this topic
Posted 08 January 2003 - 04:11 AM
I think we need some more sideways thrashing about like we had on the wat to the low, on our way to the top. Which thrash will it be which leads us to bull or bear territory? Will the shorts get blown out on a FU rally? Will the bulls get crushed on a panic plunge or will it be a slow steady drop? Will HUI plunge to 40 with gold going to 200/oz overnite and put me in the poorhouse?
Tune in tomorrow!
And regarding all the tomfoolery around here. I recall advising everyone to show some restraint, then later to STFU and CTFO. Too bad ya didn't listen. Neener neener neener. Bet y'all wish ya were mature like me! Muwahahaha. j/k
Posted 08 January 2003 - 06:01 AM
zapata george - excellent, and hilarious to a former texan. his sprawl & drawl is so different from ike, who is so diplomatic.
who is the '1%' (that was holding '38%' according to his 'source that disappeared')?
Quod Severis Metes
Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.
Posted 08 January 2003 - 07:24 AM
THE SITE THE STREET FORGOT
The street has a nice article about 5 independent web sites where you can get lots of nice independent advice about stocks.
Unfortunately the CapitalStool - the very best independent website is not mentioned.
Would it be because a simple and impessionable person might see what is written about the street on this website!!!
Of course not.
Cramer dissed gold and oil in a recent article - thats great.
He is a great contrarian indicator.
Posted 08 January 2003 - 08:40 AM
BITING THE COBRA
Their allways seems to be some theme or piece of news that the short term market is fixated apon - yesterday it was the stimlus package. Ususally it is a FED rate meeting. The next theme is now the war with Iraq - when will it start.
Just as the inflexion point when a company goes into terminal decline (Mcdonalds burger anyone??) is called jumping the shark (Mcdonalds has just jumped) - this theme or piece of news the market is fixated apon should be given a name.
Lets call it the COBRA.
Positioning yourself to profit from the theme/news should be called
biting the cobra.
PS the japs tried umpteen stimulus packages to revive their stockmarket/economy - none of them worked.
Posted 08 January 2003 - 09:20 AM
Which reminds me. When I was studying and working in Germany (about 10 years ago), the colleague who worked in the same room as me was a yahtsman. He was once in the crew of a big boat. Another crew member was a millionaire. So, during the trip, everybody kept teasing that guy "So, tell us, how does one make a million?". One day the guy got fed up and said "Look, folks, it's very easy. You take two millions, you build a supermarket with them, and you sell it for three millions. Voila, you've made one million profit.".
Uhm, there other big things that might start falling down the next week. Falling on Saddam's head, that is. Time will tell, as it always does.
Posted 08 January 2003 - 09:52 AM
No, not precisely. If you look closely at the chart I posted (I assume that this is what you're referring to), you'll see that my lower Fibonacci bracket starts from 24.27 instead of from the true intra-day low of 24.28:
This could lead to an error of the other numbers too, although it shouldn't exceed 1 cent. Apologies for my lack of precision, but StockCharts' chart annotation tool does not allow one to finely position an annotation by 1-pixel movements.
Posted 08 January 2003 - 10:05 AM
Re your post "...trend reversal tomorrow late morning...":
I noticed you posted this at precisely 12:00am, Jan 8 (today). Are you looking for a reversal today (Jan. 8), or tomorrow, Jan. 9?
Posted 08 January 2003 - 10:14 AM
Everyone thinks we are going down. I wish it was all so easy. I think a hedge would be appropriate but a melt down? Gulp! I will stay long and buy some puts on the QQQ, but does anyone think a shake out may be in order? Contrarian investing seems to be in order. I vote for sideways and up until mid febuary. Then looming to go short in MAY and GO AWAY!!
Posted 08 January 2003 - 02:02 PM
As predicted, Gold is bouncing off the 5/15 day Dover Sole readings of last night. I suspect bounce coming now in equities at this 1 pm hour. Money just sloshing around. Whats down will be up, whats up will be down. Best risk/reward is to use the 5/15 and 10/15 and buy for bounces at support in my opinion.
Posted 08 January 2003 - 04:15 PM
Guess it must be Turdsday, right?
Posted 09 January 2003 - 06:41 PM
I DO NOT THINK the S+P will get above its head n shoulders pattern at 955. IN TA, once you break the neckline, if its a bear market, the support line becomes resistance. As such, if this is a long-term bear, old support becomes resistance and 955 will not be pierced.
For fundamental reasons why we won't get through there,
Mario Ricchio at http://xtremeinvesting.com/ considers rising health care costs one of a bevy of impediments to earnings growth this year. Others include:
1) Global Excess Manufacturing Capacity
2) Excessive Corporate Debt
3) Lower Wage Structure outside US forces imported prices down
4) Rising Energy Costs
5) Consumers demanding a bargain, retailers selling merchandise at cost
6) Producers offering interest rate free financing/ incentives
7) Rising Commercial Insurance Rates
Ricchio says that according to a study conducted by Alice Cornish, anal cyst at Prudential Securities, risk managers expect average commercial property rate increases of 27% and liability rate hikes of 37%. And these numbers come off a strong increase in 2002.
Improvement will come, but when?
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