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#1 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 08:04 AM

Frist off Brian, thanks for the info on Suncor and to the other party who supplied the NG per barrel btu relationship. Aside from the NG, the operation seems pretty energy intensive. For starters at current production of about 250,000 bpd the trucking of the sand to the beginning process stage, there are 450,000 tons per day moved in 300 ton (average truck size) loads or about 15,000 truck loads per day. One busy driver! :lol: I'm guessing those trucks don't run on air. Not to mention the overburden removed and the shovel loading the trucks, etc. there is also the energy required to process that "ore" (crushing, sorting, moving form stage to stage as well as the supporting energy useage for operations (lighting, heat, water movement etc.) they also have another tyope of extraction running which is more direct in utilizing steam injection to "leach" the "oil" directly out of the sand and delivering that product to a near end process stage, but for now that is about 15% of their output and a relatively new process. In the end it appears to be a net energy gain, but not hugely so. Also if market price of NG were utilized the price per barrel would rise significantly.

It appears to be a good company (noting I did not dig into the financials as my adobe is down) that for now is not throwing off much in the way of dividends (.8% @ $34) and may not until full production is achieved in about 2010-2012, depending on further capital investment requirements. I would like to see them build or acquire additional refining capabilities and perhaps additional retail outlets (currently they can only refine half of what they produce) and therefore achieve full vertical integration. As long as the price of oil stays high enough their growth potential (100% over the next 6-8 years) and profit potential looks good enough that share appreciation may occur offsetting their smallish dividends until higher dividends are justified. They also have a DRIP program which is a nice way to aquire shares.

But (always one of those hanging out) I'm not 100% confident oil will remain high over the next few years. I still believe it is possible that a large enough downturn in the global economy could cause a surprising fall in demand for several years. Even in that event, at some point the supply demand curves will once again cross as world oil production slows. Long term oil has nowhere to go but up.

PMs are positive in London with the exception of palladium, which IMO is merely a play on the auto sector and not a good bet in this environment.

Uncle Bucky has donned his pirate costume and apparently has stuck his peg leg in a hole while stomping furiously in a circle.

#2

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 08:35 AM

"The world waits with bated breath as the Federal Reserve meets to decide interest rates. The July 5 issue of Business week has Alan Greenspan on the cover. The headline says "High Stakes" with the subhead "Alan Greenspan sounds confident. But beware: He has a tricky task ahead."

"Tricky? What an exquisite word for it! Tricky! Run that word over in your head a little bit, and pretty soon you see that the word "trick" is in there, and if you have ever had anybody fan out a deck of cards in your face and asked you to "pick a card, any card," you are pretty hip to what a trick is. And using tricks is how Alan Greenspan is going to try and get us out of this mess, this huge destructive mess that he caused."

I got your outrage right here, dude!

#3 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 08:40 AM

Yields plunging again on rate hike day???
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#4 The brown one

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 08:43 AM

Just read on a local site (NL) that this year so far on the AEX index(347)
between 10am and 2.30pm the index has moved no more than 1 point
80% of the time and that only includes the days it was open!! :lol: :lol:

Couldn't be bothered to check if that is true but it seems about right!

#5 DrStool

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 08:58 AM

Breakdown or Shakedown

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#6 Hiding Bear

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 09:07 AM

Frist off Brian, thanks for the info on Suncor and to the other party who supplied the NG per barrel btu relationship. Aside from the NG, the operation seems pretty energy intensive. For starters at current production of about 250,000 bpd the trucking of the sand to the beginning process stage, there are 450,000 tons per day moved in 300 ton (average truck size) loads or about 15,000 truck loads per day. One busy driver! :lol: I'm guessing those trucks don't run on air. Not to mention the overburden removed and the shovel loading the trucks, etc. there is also the energy required to process that "ore" (crushing, sorting, moving form stage to stage as well as the supporting energy useage for operations (lighting, heat, water movement etc.) they also have another tyope of extraction running which is more direct in utilizing steam injection to "leach" the "oil" directly out of the sand and delivering that product to a near end process stage, but for now that is about 15% of their output and a relatively new process. In the end it appears to be a net energy gain, but not hugely so. Also if market price of NG were utilized the price per barrel would rise significantly.

It appears to be a good company (noting I did not dig into the financials as my adobe is down) that for now is not throwing off much in the way of dividends (.8% @ $34) and may not until full production is achieved in about 2010-2012, depending on further capital investment requirements. I would like to see them build or acquire additional refining capabilities and perhaps additional retail outlets (currently they can only refine half of what they produce) and therefore achieve full vertical integration. As long as the price of oil stays high enough their growth potential (100% over the next 6-8 years) and profit potential looks good enough that share appreciation may occur offsetting their smallish dividends until higher dividends are justified. They also have a DRIP program which is a nice way to aquire shares.

But (always one of those hanging out) I'm not 100% confident oil will remain high over the next few years. I still believe it is possible that a large enough downturn in the global economy could cause a surprising fall in demand for several years. Even in that event, at some point the supply demand curves will once again cross as world oil production slows. Long term oil has nowhere to go but up.

PMs are positive in London with the exception of palladium, which IMO is merely a play on the auto sector and not a good bet in this environment.

Uncle Bucky has donned his pirate costume and apparently has stuck his peg leg in a hole while stomping furiously in a circle.

Tanks yobob1, i'll be looking into this more later. ;)

Opened a new futures account and a new margin account with borrowed 401k type money. Call me a crazy bear if you like, I see a lot of trading opprtunities developing this summer before. Hopefully I will able to get my money out of the system before the next unexplained internut failure.

Bought 1 December Oil at 35.50.

Good trading! :)

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 09:08 AM

Good timing???? Idaho miner discovers new vien of silver.

#8 machinehead

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 09:10 AM

Gary North wrote an article about "settlement fails" in the banking system, quoting a paper by Warren Pollock (also linked in the North article, and worthwhile for the charts on page 2 of the pdf document).

One of the "settlement fail" spikes, unsurprisingly, was in the week after 9/11. Greenspan described it as communications interruptions, which manifested in difficulties rolling over commercial paper.

But two recent spikes are more surprising. One was in Aug. 2003, as Treasury yields were surging more than 100 basis points in the midst of a panicky mortgage hedge unwinding.

Mysteriously, the other spike in settlement fails occurred in May 2004, also during a period of rising Treasury yields. That's about the time when commentators starting noticing that M3 money supply was soaring again.

Link

Now Pollock and North are talking about long bond yields, not short rates. So their theory doesn't necessarily have any relation to Mad Al's little 25-bip trial balloon to be launched at 2:15 pm today.

Still, the disclosure of the settlement fails spikes, showing that the system was under tremendous stress even as recently as last month, was news to me.

I wonder if it will happen again? :unsure:
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#9 PeakOil

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 09:16 AM

Uncle Bucky has donned his pirate costume and apparently has stuck his peg leg in a hole while stomping furiously in a circle.

:lol:


Re: Tar Sands Oil. At $25+ there is money to be made.

The Province of Alberta and a 'Syncrude' group of companies have been battling away at making this Oil cost effective for decades now. Great progress has been made since I've been following this story, living in Edmonton for my first 40 years.

Extracting and refining this Oil, remains an energy intensive, gargantuan, difficult proposition. Economic perhaps, but it sure as hell ain't 'easy'.

#10 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 09:19 AM

A fine day so far as silver pushing $6.00
A gift the recent slapdown


TAKE DELIVERY
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#11

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 09:20 AM

Gary North wrote an article about "settlement fails" in the banking system, quoting a paper by Warren Pollock (also linked in the North article, and worthwhile for the charts on page 2 of the pdf document).

One of the "settlement fail" spikes, unsurprisingly, was in the week after 9/11. Greenspan described it as communications interruptions, which manifested in difficulties rolling over commercial paper.

But two recent spikes are more surprising. One was in Aug. 2003, as Treasury yields were surging more than 100 basis points in the midst of a panicky mortgage hedge unwinding.

Mysteriously, the other spike in settlement fails occurred in May 2004, also during a period of rising Treasury yields. That's about the time when commentators starting noticing that M3 money supply was soaring again.

Link

Now Pollock and North are talking about long bond yields, not short rates. So their theory doesn't necessarily have any relation to Mad Al's little 25-bip trial balloon to be launched at 2:15 pm today.

Still, the disclosure of the settlement fails spikes, showing that the system was under tremendous stress even as recently as last month, was news to me.

I wonder if it will happen again? :unsure:

mh

correct conclusion as usual. great measure for system stress. we discussed here about a month ago. i track weekly numbers. will post if significant.

mortgage backed transactions had a spike a few weeks ago too.

#12

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 09:20 AM

Gary North wrote an article about "settlement fails" in the banking system, quoting a paper by Warren Pollock (also linked in the North article, and worthwhile for the charts on page 2 of the pdf document).

One of the "settlement fail" spikes, unsurprisingly, was in the week after 9/11. Greenspan described it as communications interruptions, which manifested in difficulties rolling over commercial paper.

But two recent spikes are more surprising. One was in Aug. 2003, as Treasury yields were surging more than 100 basis points in the midst of a panicky mortgage hedge unwinding.

Mysteriously, the other spike in settlement fails occurred in May 2004, also during a period of rising Treasury yields. That's about the time when commentators starting noticing that M3 money supply was soaring again.

Link

Now Pollock and North are talking about long bond yields, not short rates. So their theory doesn't necessarily have any relation to Mad Al's little 25-bip trial balloon to be launched at 2:15 pm today.

Still, the disclosure of the settlement fails spikes, showing that the system was under tremendous stress even as recently as last month, was news to me.

I wonder if it will happen again? :unsure:

Interesting.

Anyone recall the last time margin requirements were raised? :unsure:

#13 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 09:22 AM

OOPS

6 minutes into the day and a +965 tick
My they love Mad Al days
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#14 brian4

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 09:30 AM

Morning Crew- Today we GreenScum, Friday we have the Jobs report and this week we have had warnings from Major Companies-GM, WMT, TGT, and of course Wahington Mutual. It has been said for awhile now that earnings just aren't there and the warnings are confirming that and I suspect claims will be back above 350,000 shortly, Gold is also up this morning when it shouldn't be-I think the market gets sold after the announcement-Window at the bell for 30 minutes-Helmets on, Buckle up! ;)

#15

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Posted 30 June 2004 - 09:30 AM

opening on freddie looks fun

never mind





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