Regarding Incorrect Market Calls Here
136 replies to this topic
Posted 07 January 2003 - 02:01 AM
Let Him Who Is Without Sin Cast The First Stone
Jesus Of Nazareth
Posted 07 January 2003 - 05:37 AM
The US Dollar
NDX futures (delayed)
SPX futures (delayed)
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Posted 07 January 2003 - 06:22 AM
Hey, Gladiator. I know you're a Star Wars fan. Have you heard the story of Skippy, the Jedi droid? From the kind of stories you often post at tread openings, I think you'll love this one. I know I did. It's a graphic story, but there is nothing special in the pictures; it's very easy to adapt it to a text-only version. If you haven't seen it, I'll type it in and will post it to Other Stool later.
It's about the red R2 unit that goes POOF when Owen Lars is purchasing droids. Here is just one page of it (slow link!).
The same volume that contains it has also another very funny one (about how the name "Death Star" got chosen); but there are too many visual jokes there; it's not easily adaptable to a text-only version.
Posted 07 January 2003 - 09:36 AM
FeedFool, Dr. B. or anyone else who wants to pipe up. I plotted four Fib Time Zones using Metastock. I got a cluster in mid Feb.
Is this meaningful or just a redundant result of the underlying math?
Posted 07 January 2003 - 09:40 AM
One quick note before I chime...
Doc mentioned on Marketviews.tv a few weeks ago about mid February... Doc, why did you change your tune??... nuff said... Doc is still the man...
SG chimes in on Tue morning
SG reminds that I am NOT an E wave expert, I have never read a book on it, but I use my simple analysis and mathematical abilities to discern the patterns as best as I can. I am FAR from an E wave expert, trust me on that one. The problem with TOO MUCH KNOWLEDGE is it clouds your abilities to think... heh heh.... so keep it simple.
26.40 to 26.80 were my max targets, and we rode over 26.40 intra-day yesterday. So, my cited levels have been hit. My NDX targets of 1055-1071 also were hit at 1068 intra-day.
Now, keep in mind here, that Elliott Waves dont care about economic stimulus packages, GDP reports, Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment or anything else. A pattern is merely a reflection of social mood at the time, or investor psychology. A wave 2 retracement simply means that psychology got pretty negative at the end of Wave 1 (end of 2002) and we were due for some uplift in psychology.
Now, if you want to say the markets are up because of the Bush plan.. thats bullshit because the markets knew about this a few weeks ago frankly. If you want to say its pension money, fine... also bullshit.
Bottom line, a pattern is a pattern... and this pattern is nearly complete in my mind. It has satisfied my minimal retracement requirements, and the next leg is BIG TIME DOWN....
Im tempted to start scaling into RYVNX today, but I shall see.... I think this may be a mini A B C to complete wave 2 up.... so a B leg down, followed by one more topping into my Jan 9 -10th dates will suit my needs fine.
So lets watch the markets today and see what patterns emerge. Dont get spooked... keep it simple... its' fibonacci man, Fibonacci.... nothing more, nothing less.... its getting close to shorting time, not going long.... but I will wait a tad longer here for the pattern to complete...
BTW... EMC news is crap... so we "sold" more of our shit to someone, whom we probably financed to take delivery prior to quarter end, so we can pump our stock in early 02... earnings continue to be manufactured....
Final note... dividend tax will not be done away with once the final bill is completed.... maybe a 50% cut , but not 100%. The market best not be hanging its hat on Microsoft paying a dividend... its not efficient use of corporate capital... and it aint gonna happen... it just reflects "SOCIAL MOOD" of the current E wave up... thats all....
Posted 07 January 2003 - 09:40 AM
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Posted 07 January 2003 - 09:40 AM
i'm experiencing a growing discomfort with the level of establishment desperation just beneath the surface. i know we can resynergize our antidereflationary strategery, and get a resultant 3-5-X pattern that inverts our bradley and puts our chocolate in our peanut butter and sends the SPX off the stoolicator and halfway to the moon.
but, really, something is bad wrong, and it can't be hidden for too much longer. this actually is the truman show, and we're not far from the point where we all bump into the far wall together.
planning to begin accumulating mar index puts today - preferably on a spike, if ed harris can conjure one up.
don't get caught on the wrong side of this thing. its days are numbered.
FTSE/DAX/CAC all down 1% or so. SPX fucutures down slightly. spot gold touched 347.90 but is back up over 350.
Quod Severis Metes
Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.
Posted 07 January 2003 - 09:47 AM
SG is going to help the Stoolies out with a QQQ chart, and my Simple E wave comments... I dont know how to annotate a chart, to bear with me.
1. Look at this 60 day QQQ chart below. 28.55 top right? The beginning of Wave 1 down (of 3 of 3 of 3).
2. Note, end of year 24.39 roughly as end of a basic downward pattern... thats end of Wave 1.
Why did SG continue to tell people to wait for 26.40 to 26.80 ranges?? Because, simple Fibonacci retracement of a Wave 1 is 38%, 50%, or 61%... with rare times at 78%... *(lets hope not).
So... I did the math, being a math guy.... and I came up with my ranges.
Yesterday we hit my required retracement ranges to complete wave 2 up.... with wave 3 down to follow. Now... we could have a 61% retracement, or even 78%... and if so... then the Qs go to my higher cited levels.... thats the ST danger.
That said... Wave 3 is usually 161% of Wave 1.... so.... lets say 26.80 is the top of Wave 2..... subtract 161% of Wave 1's move from 26.80 top of wave 2... and you have what? $20.11 on the Q's as next target on downside.
So whether I short today, tomorrow, Friday, or next week.... my wave 3 target is $20.11.... either way, I will make a FAT PROFIT... I just like to MAXIMIZE the trade thats all... and Im patient... I dont game daily...I follow my instincts and my methods and dont deviate ever....
Here is the chart... note wave 1 down, wave 2 up.... we may see 26.80 to 27... but thats it....
Posted 07 January 2003 - 09:53 AM
RE EMC Earnings
A complete JOKE... 1-2 cents, before charges... estimates were a loss of 1-2 cents.
What happened... IT Budgets get sprung loose in final weeks of Q4 to spend what is left....
Q 1 will shit the bed IMHO....
SG Reminds, my E wave pattern has satisfactorily been completed on the QQQ index and the SP500.... SG believes you can now short these indexes if you have a 30-60 day time frame ahead....
SG has not gone short YET.... as he wants to see the patterns unfold today yet.... and my cited top was jan 9-10.... as discussed a few weeks ago here.
Good luck today, I'll be back at ya should I make a move.
I could be wrong...heh heh....
Posted 07 January 2003 - 10:14 AM
Amen Glad, great open after yesturday!!
Let's all behave and have a day of learning and laughing
Later, and thanks all!
Posted 07 January 2003 - 10:15 AM
I think that you got this one nailed to the floor. I'm with you. Looking to short XLNX today for the ride down. Keep up the good work.
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