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B4 the Bell Weakend Thread


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#31 brian4

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Posted 18 June 2004 - 11:50 PM

Stain-we agree! ;)

#32 Shebear

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 12:59 AM

Maximum uncertainty in the geo-political and geo-economic realm....

THE UNRAVELING
by Jim Puplava
Storm Watch Update
June 18, 2004

The Unraveling is a nice recap of the bearish position.

On the beheading, the shock of this event might obscure the great efforts the Saudis made to find the killers. They succeeded but too late. Interesting how GWB, before he knew that, stated that the US would hunt down the killers.

I don't know what the implications of what GWB said are, but the implications of the Saudi effort is that they are now in a state of war with Al Queda within SA. The true strength or weakness of AQ and Saudi royal family will be exposed in the coming weeks. If the royal family gains the upper hand, then we might see oil drop back some. If AQ makes progress, oil is going to double.

It's hard to know what will happen next.


Saudi authorities had stepped up their efforts to find Mr Johnson as the deadline loomed. Some 15,000 security officers swept through Riyadh, going from door to door in some areas and visiting about 2,000 sites.


BBS - Militants behead US hostage

I thought so too.

Just stand by for more attacks on Western workers since the House of Saud
is under attack also.

Better that even chances US will be called in to help Saud at some point.

The ME dilema reminds me of the story of DUNE.. Oil being SPICE, desert planet Arakis, ME, Muah Dib, Bin Laden? Don't like the latter, but can't help but notice the similarities.

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 01:12 AM

At The Art Gallery

On LOB

Click Here

#34 Dharmaeye

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 02:55 AM

Here's a little gem I uncovered some time ago. CPI inflation just moved above 3% in May and could quite possibly exceed 3.5% in June. There have only been five instances in the past 32 years when inflation went from under 3 to over 3.5% and four of them are associated with noteworthy bearish occasions. They include the onset of the 73-74 megabear in December 1972, the 1987 bear and crash, the beginning of the secular bear in March 2000, and the onset of the May 2001 waterfall. The fifth, somewhat less dramatic instance occured during the 83 bear market.

Tanks.
Bradley dates on 22nd and 24th.

#35 stained jeans

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 03:41 AM

Dharma,

22nd & 24th? What's your source? TIA.

#36 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 05:23 AM

Stained, comments were dripping with cynisism. As a quick reminder I'm not a trader and any comments I make on stocks should be faded unless you like flushing money down the toilet. By the same token, how many times have various TA savy Stoolies said "today's the day it goes down hard", only to find out that it doesn't? Oh no more than 10 or 12 times week. :lol: Want the stock market to die? Stop trading. Seriously I mean it what would happen if say 10 million small traders just unplugged their PC for a month. Personally I don't think the matrix could take it. They need that constant supply of fresh blood to keep up their fun little game. I follow the stock market as one small part of the macro picture. Personally I view the stock market as the flashy side-show in the bigger circus. If you don't think that's right, imagine what would happen if the fed raisied rates 1% in June. KABOOM.

I don't recall seeing anyone comment on the last trade report regarding the fact that US exports fell. We all know imports were up - that's the headline. But for all of the people who thought the decline of the dollar would drive exports, well it's not happening.

RE: Puplava. Yes a solid bear case based on an inflationary scenario. Does he gloss over some things? Yes. Is he guilty of beating his own drum? You betcha. Personally I think the mini commodity boom we've seen over the last year+ is going to roll over very soon. What's the typical sign a boom is peaking and about to go bust? Everyone piling in. The combination of hedge funds and the huge surge in commodity funds have been the main driver on the back of the "China Syndrome". China's been stabbing the brakes now for a couple of months and the US consumer is squeezing gently on the brake pedal. A seemingly insignificant rise in the fed rate will be like barreling down the highway at 80 and yanking up on the emergency brake handle for American consumers; something Puplava alluded to but failed to follow the logic through to conclusion. As to yanking on the emergency brake handle at high speeds, as they say don't try this unless you're an experienced stunt driver. ( I have employed this very maneuver during my days solo racing sports cars - it is commonly refered to as a "hand brake turn") I also noted that the IR chart for the UK was displaying the classic inversion indicating impending recession, yet no comment was made on that either.

Puplava and others are now on the stagflation bandwagon. Sorry, I don't think that's what will happen. We have come off of a stock bubble only to head immediately into a real estate bubbble. As any good Stoolie knows they are really one in the same, it really is only one giant credit bubble with no collateral. Real incomes are declining, we have exhausted the last of the three most recent consumer money surges ( mid-2003 refi bonanza, instant child credit tax rebate, Spring tax refunds) and we are heading into an unprecedented real estate bust on a national basis. It is already eating away at the heartland in the US and gradually moving towards the coasts. The bottom line is the consumer is tapped out and deeper in debt, by any metric, than at any other point in history. Ditto corporate America, financial institutions and all levels of Govt. Credit growth is stalling out and that spells the death knell. I stand by my prediction that in about 6 months or so most of America is going to be wide-eyed, mouth agape and wondering what the wingohockingmoyamensing happend. I'm begining to pray I'm wrong.

There are no really good places in history we can look for absolute guidance. Some things are similar to previous episodes, yet almost everything is different when viewed in toto. To my knowledge it is the first time in history when the entire global financial system is based purely on fiat and encountering a major crisis. Everything at every level is based purely on the confidence of the populace in their governments and the toilet paper they issue. There is little in the way of true wealth creation happening. Instead we are getting financial fantasy wealth based on trading little slips of paper back and forth across the planet. I.e. no one wants to do the actual work it takes to create wealth and you have a situation where a minority of the population must work their butts off so the majority can live in their government/financial fantasy world. As one of the minority, I can tell you I'm growing weary of carrying the load. I'm not alone. By not being in debt I can pull the plug anytime I care to and simply stop producing, at least for a long sustained period - long enough to stand back and let the chips fall where they may. That's the time to shop until you drop.

#37 The brown one

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 05:43 AM

News.com.au reports a House sized Meteor fell on the New South Wales South Coast last night although the explosion was witnessed they have not as yet found the Meteorite.  Aussie Bear can probably tell us more! ;)

Can't really help much on that one..

http://www.abc.net.a...06/s1134005.htm

Police have given up the search for a meteorite seen above the Illawarra escarpment south of Sydney.

ABC Illawarra received numerous reports of sightings from members of the public.

The original report said the meteor was the size of a house.

Police say they found no trace of space rock.



The size of a HOUSE, wouldn't want that coming thru your roof :o

Aussie:If they can't find a meteor the size of a house it's no wonder they call Oz--"The Great Bugger All" :lol: :lol:

#38 The brown one

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 05:57 AM

Excellent wisdom,Yobob.

#39 Ned38

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 06:05 AM

What do you think we think you think we think we said......................
http://story.news.ya...aq_bush_rice_dc

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 07:24 AM

You have the bigger picture yobob.

BTW.....that 'emergency brake' application at high speed for a turn metaphore
reminds me of the Bootlegers turn to evade a roadblock on a 2-lane road.

The left-rear only was slowed simultaneously with application of power (2nd gear)and steering to perform a high speed u-turn. Might loose some product as 'shine jars came loose...but its better than spendin' time in the pokey. :D

How many Stoolies are prepared to make that U-turn? :rolleyes:

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 07:56 AM

The ME dilema reminds me of the story of DUNE.. Oil being SPICE, desert planet Arakis, ME, Muah Dib, Bin Laden? Don't like the latter, but can't help but notice the similarities.


Can't say that I am familiar with the story of DUNE. SiFi (?) I do not usually read.

Pragmatic....who is controlling what and how.... pr/marketing for the propaganda,
which the FED is into heavily....effectively brainwashing almost everyone into
believing the impossible. :rolleyes: AND propaganda, black or white or the shades of grey between, is a mainstay in the American information system. White has been left on the roadside for a very long time. :angry:

History provides some clues but fails to provide a vision for the future. IOW,
you can't move forward by looking into the rear-view mirror to see where you
are heading. :blink:

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 08:07 AM

This latest beheading incident and the Saudi action all smells to high heaven. The crap just keeps getting deeper and deeper. Everytime the neocons want to cause some outrage or change the subject, an American in the ME gets his head cut off -- on tape. I'm developing some real ugly feelings and thoughts about just how involved the Saudis themselves are in carrying out these outrageous acts in the name of AQ.

#43 The brown one

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 08:28 AM

What do you think we think you think we think we said......................
http://story.news.ya...aq_bush_rice_dc

That is truly UFB.Like Cheyney calling the media lazy for publishing his propaganda
except when they don't and then they're lazy and not doing proper research.

I sincerely hope that for the future of the US, that the population is not as dumb as the current mob assumes them to be.If the majority of the population swallow this crap without stirring,then they deserve their polititians and all dissidents should bale out before they are incarcerated or eliminated.

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 08:29 AM

This latest beheading incident and the Saudi action all smells to high heaven. The crap just keeps getting deeper and deeper. Everytime the neocons want to cause some outrage or change the subject, an American in the ME gets his head cut off -- on tape. I'm developing some real ugly feelings and thoughts about just how involved the Saudis themselves are in carrying out these outrageous acts in the name of AQ.

A definite possibility CD.

Somebody, somewhere, in Saudi knew something beforehand. I think has a
Delta Force too....so their intel is screwed up.....probably compromised inside intel. <_<

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Posted 19 June 2004 - 08:33 AM

What do you think we think you think we think we said......................
http://story.news.ya...aq_bush_rice_dc

As Yobob so aptly pointed out in his excellent rant above,

"Everything at every level is based purely on the confidence of the populace in their governments"

I might further ad that, despite the ability of most American's to ignore the Constitutional Crisis unfolding directly under their noses, the rest of the world is not so blind. Every day, confidence in the leadership of America is erroding. With each new revelation and each attempt at denail and doubletalk, the ability to trust the United States to fulfill its obligations is diminished.

"The full faith and credit of the United States Government" is the premise that has led to the Dollar becoming the currency of choice throught the world. The word "TRUST" is at the core of all things financial. The system is dependent upon it.

These efforts, by the existing leaders of our government, to use their high political office as a soap box from which to spew forth lies and half truths (designed specifically to enhance their chances of re-election) are having a lasting negative impact on our credibility globally. In the US, we may shrug it off as "politics as usual," but viewed from abroad, our leaders are lying about the reasons for the start of what could well become World War III.

Not only is this not Politics As Usual, this is not politics, and this is not usual. This is fraud on a massive global scale. There is such a thing as wanting to win too badly. Tonya Harding comes to mind.

These are fairly smart people. They made a plan and set off on a course based on a number of lies...that they knew at the time were lies. As this plan has proven to be horriffically ill conceived, and leaks have begun to expose the initial lies, more and greater lies (and actions) are required by all to protect the initial ill conceived plan (not to mention each of the liars skin). The lying is now coming fast and furious. If their lips are moving, they are lying...and the rest of the world stands in shock-and-awe as the integrity of America disintegrates before our very eyes.

Ms. Rice was one of the chief architects of THE BIG LIE. Like all of the others, she must continue to lie until someone or something stops them:

Note the headline of the following article, note that it is attributed to her, and note that it is 100% false. Greenspan's policies, happy talk and lies cannot overpower the damage being done to this nation's credibility. Without credibility, our system will fail, and foreign investors smell it coming.



9/11 Report Cited No Iraqi 'Control' of Qaeda - Rice


"What I believe the 9-11 commission was opining on was operational control, an operational relationship between al Qaeda and Iraq which we never alleged," Rice said in an interview with National Public Radio.

The chairman and vice chairman of the Sept. 11 commission differed with Rice's characterization of their panel's findings in separate interviews with Reuters.

"The word 'control' is new," Hamilton said.

"The president talks in terms of a relationship between the two. The vice president talks in terms of a tie between the two. We talk in terms of contacts between the two," he added.

"All of those words are similar, but clearly relationship and ties suggest more than contacts."

http://story.news.ya...aq_bush_rice_dc





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