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#31 The End

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 08:36 PM

Ike is back on tonight.

http://www.marketviews.tv/

Carl, Jake B and Kennedy are his guests. Should be fun.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#32 speculator

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 08:43 PM

Fart -

I split my time between the UK and the US. The Asian/European versions of Bloomberg, Crapvision and CNN have had super bearish fund managers on for 12-18 months. My favourite was Soros calling for a secular bear over a year ago. They played that clip over and over for months. They have been more bearish lately but hell the bulls were right for a decade.

I'm in the telecommunications hardware manufacturing business and I am also seeing the first uptick in a long time BUT - all our customers have serious long-term problems and the uptick is just their last gasps - a desperate attempt to capture more customers and increase revenues. These hopeless attempts to grow revenue will cause a TEMPORARY uptick from the semis through to IT spending.

I've seen the business plans and projections for several large telecommunication and service providers. They are complete fantasy. I've watched them the past 2 years scale back to the point of relatively no capital spending and massive layoffs. Now, they have become bullish and are projecting growth again. Why? Because if they donít the alternative projection leads to demise for most of them. Most executive are happy to cut during a downturn because for the most part they wonít be the ones out of a job. But if they project the current trend it leads to the obvious - closing the doors. They will spend the last of their cash on doomed business plans before they voluntarily shut the doors.

The uptick you are seeing is just a result of the last desperate spending spree of the tech dependent industries.

How long will it last? Well it takes time for these plans to fail but spending is cautious this time around due to shareholders keeping a closer watch on boards now so the "show me" attitude will nip this tech spending spree real quick. I'll give it 2 quarters at most before this "uptick" peters out.

#33 chibear

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 08:59 PM

Buddha,

I enjoy your commentary, almost as much as Mark's. I don't know if political commentary belongs on another Stoolie board. But, as a supporter, along with a majority of Americans, of most of what this President has done, I'm offended by comments here that are market comments but are interlaced with political attacks. If I want to hear that I can go to a political board. I just think it's way over the top to call our President "little fascist" and "idiot" as you do, amidst an otherwise excellent market commentary. I don't feel right responding on this board by writing a comment defending Bush, or attacking his impeached, serial-rapist predecessor. I don't think Doc would permit it. And he shouldn't, anymore than you should be permitted to tee off on Bush that way, at least here on Mark To Market.

#34 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:01 PM

Fart -

I split my time between the UK and the US. The Asian/European versions of Bloomberg, Crapvision and CNN have had super bearish fund managers on for 12-18 months. My favourite was Soros calling for a secular bear over a year ago. They played that clip over and over for months. They have been more bearish lately but hell the bulls were right for a decade.

I'm in the telecommunications hardware manufacturing business and I am also seeing the first uptick in a long time BUT - all our customers have serious long-term problems and the uptick is just their last gasps - a desperate attempt to capture more customers and increase revenues. These hopeless attempts to grow revenue will cause a TEMPORARY uptick from the semis through to IT spending.

I've seen the business plans and projections for several large telecommunication and service providers. They are complete fantasy. I've watched them the past 2 years scale back to the point of relatively no capital spending and massive layoffs. Now, they have become bullish and are projecting growth again. Why? Because if they donít the alternative projection leads to demise for most of them. Most executive are happy to cut during a downturn because for the most part they wonít be the ones out of a job. But if they project the current trend it leads to the obvious - closing the doors. They will spend the last of their cash on doomed business plans before they voluntarily shut the doors.

The uptick you are seeing is just a result of the last desperate spending spree of the tech dependent industries.

How long will it last? Well it takes time for these plans to fail but spending is cautious this time around due to shareholders keeping a closer watch on boards now so the "show me" attitude will nip this tech spending spree real quick. I'll give it 2 quarters at most before this "uptick" peters out.

All you have to really know about the telecommunications industry to understand the uptick is the design cycle, which is about 2 yrs... Looking at a projected recovery date for the telecommunications/networking sector of Q4 2004, the semiconductor design uptick activity I noted, is right on schedule...

Please note that I also indicated that I was not expecting a V recovery, Nasdaq5000, or anything like it... I just said 2003 will not be another down year in the equity markets... that's my story and I'm sticking with it...

#35 The End

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:03 PM

speculator,

Funnymentals become fundamentals with that post. Great post. In fact POST OF THE DAY/NIGHT IT SHALL BE DEEMED. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#36 The End

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:07 PM

Fart,

NOT pickin' on ya. :D But for the record, In your opinion will the lows of Oct. be broken, tested or never to come this year?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#37 MrHanky

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:10 PM

well,everyone is long except me....and its gonna stay that way..i'm not goin long,don't care how high it goes.

Nothing


#38 phatbubble

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:16 PM

from now, ON i;m doign my OWNN reserch !!! heres' some

Posted Image
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#39 speculator

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:17 PM

All you have to really know about the telecommunications industry to understand the uptick is the design cycle, which is about 2 yrs... Looking at a projected recovery date for the telecommunications/networking sector of Q4 2004, the semiconductor design uptick activity I noted, is right on schedule...

Please note that I also indicated that I was not expecting a V recovery, Nasdaq5000, or anything like it... I just said 2003 will not be another down year in the equity markets... that's my story and I'm sticking with it...

Fart -

The Q4 2004 date is the same one I have seen in many of the recently revised projections and plans of our customers. You are dead on about the 2 year cycle - but can be as short as 9 months for some of the higher volume low-end equipment.

What I am predicting is those designs will never see the light of day because those projections will be shifted out AGAIN within 6 months. :o The current relative "bullishness" or "uptick", of R&D tech development is due to FALSE projections by potential customers of said equipment. Those projections will be revised DOWN in 6 months.

That my story and I'm sticking to it. :P

#40 GregFokker

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:18 PM

well,everyone is long except me....and its gonna stay that way..i'm not goin long,don't care how high it goes.

Put'er there, Hanky. The only thing I'm long is cash, miners, and a whole boatload of underwater puts.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#41 GregFokker

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:20 PM

from now, ON i;m doign my OWNN reserch !!! heres' some

Posted Image

ROFLMAO! Brilliant, Phat!

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#42

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:20 PM

I don't doubt FP regarding an uptick in tech spending. I work in IT at one of the law factories (700+lawyers, four locations, two countries) in their main office in NYC.
We have had to update both our software and hardware this past year and plan some major upgrades and additions in 2003. Our budget this coming year is the highest in the last three. There are things we are using like scanned faxes of handmarked documents sent directly to a recipient's computer that we did not have two or three years ago but, have become necessities and we have to upgrade this new tool and the printers in order to print them more than a page a minute which is happening now. There are a few other things I could name as well that were not around plus new things coming out we plan on utilizing. You can multiply our needs easily by 100+ other large firms throughout the U.S. as well as the clients we service. The point is, you can not go for more than a few years in a major service industry without upgrading and with interest rates for corporate borrowing as low as they are, there will possibly be a pickup in tech spending this year. Especially in fields like my firm's where the economy hasn't affected us adversely.

BTW, after the economic holocaust to come, there will be only two things left, cockroaches and lawyers. :wink2:

#43 Sigmoid Friend

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:21 PM

I don't feel right responding on this board by writing a comment defending Bush, or attacking his impeached, serial-rapist predecessor.

By all means, let's not have any personal attacks.

I've been thinking of changing my screen id and avatar. Which shall it be, Little Fascist Idiot or Impeached Serial Rapist? Or maybe I can find one that will piss off everybody. :P

#44 Guest_soup1_*

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:23 PM

Fart: you may be correct that the economy and the mkt are poised to make a comeback ( I highly doubt that fact, but who knows?) but please do not sound like you are going out on a limb. THat is the consensus thinking. Everybody and their brother is calling for the same. ( never mind that all the shills have been dead wrong for quite some time, and have cost folks a ton of dough) I know many need to run with the crowd, whatever, but realize it for what it is , the nerd mentality hovering around the same consensus.

#45 The End

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Posted 06 January 2003 - 09:24 PM

well,everyone is long except me....and its gonna stay that way..i'm not goin long,don't care how high it goes.

That ain't true. I was dong (net) but, ain't no mo. :grin:

I believe Pile, B4 and a few others including our leader, THE DOCTOR, is not long. There are a few sane ones out here in nvere never land.


HELL, we could be in a brand spankin new stalk, oh, i mean steak market.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters





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