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Posted 07 January 2003 - 09:18 AM

NYSE 5-day ARMS closed at 3.95
Nasdaq 5-day ARMS closed at 3.05

A severe pullback is probably imminent within the next two trading days.

My computations put the NYSE Bretz TRIN-5 at around 0.85*5=4.25, but I agree with your general conclusion. We're very close to a major Sell signal on this indicator (vertical scale inverted):

Posted Image

I will load the boat with longs next time we get a 9.0 5-day ARMS and a low volume pullback.

That's a bit extreme and too rarely seen. I suggest you lower that level to 8.

This rally feels so much like March Madness.

I don't think that it is. Looks more like last year's January rally to me. Remember, the March Madness managed to turn back to overbought territory the BPIs and the McClellan Summation Index. If this is like it, it still has a lot higher to go.



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Posted 07 January 2003 - 09:38 AM

Telecom (I know, I don't even believe it) looks absolutely fabulous. Check out the ETFs that track telecom: IYZ and TTH. IYZ broke out on queue on huge volume right at both the 50 and 200 dMAs.

Oh yeah? But lookie there:

Posted Image

Odds are 72:28 that this thing goes down in the near term (3-6 months). I wouldn't bet against the odds. I'm no Corelian. :grin:


#138 simple guy

simple guy

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Posted 07 January 2003 - 10:02 AM

SG likes when Bears shit in the woods... always a sign for me to start entering my short positions.

Dont drink the Kool Aid.

I also disagree with Fartpolio on everyone bearish.

Not true. In BW 2003 survery, 64 of 67 strategists have ALL of the indices higher in 03.... that aint bearish.

Bear market do NOT END with 5% cash levels, PE ratios this high, high % ownership of household assets in stocks, and 14,000 mutual funds still out there....

Get a grip... its a wave 2 corrective rally, nothing more, nothing less....

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