My computations put the NYSE Bretz TRIN-5 at around 0.85*5=4.25, but I agree with your general conclusion. We're very close to a major Sell signal on this indicator (vertical scale inverted):
NYSE 5-day ARMS closed at 3.95
Nasdaq 5-day ARMS closed at 3.05
A severe pullback is probably imminent within the next two trading days.
I will load the boat with longs next time we get a 9.0 5-day ARMS and a low volume pullback.
That's a bit extreme and too rarely seen. I suggest you lower that level to 8.
This rally feels so much like March Madness.
I don't think that it is. Looks more like last year's January rally to me. Remember, the March Madness managed to turn back to overbought territory the BPIs and the McClellan Summation Index. If this is like it, it still has a lot higher to go.