B4 The Bell Frieday May 28
354 replies to this topic
Posted 31 May 2004 - 11:09 AM
Federal prosecutors contend that online gambling sites are illegal, but the offshore casinos fall outside their jurisdiction. So for nearly a year, the government has been trying to curb the sites' activities by investigating and pressuring American companies that provide services to offshore gambling sites on the theory that they are "aiding and abetting" the operations.
The move has raised strong criticism from First Amendment experts, media industry executives and people involved with offshore casinos. They assert that the federal government is relying on an untested legal theory in taking action against American companies, and using tactics more typically used against organized crime activities.
"This is not drug money or terrorist money," said Rodney A. Smolla, dean of the University of Richmond School of Law. "The fact it is being treated as such shows a crusader's zeal against offshore gambling."
The possible message being sent, legal experts said, is that any American company that does business with an offshore casino - including software makers and consultants - could be in danger of having proceeds from that business seized.
Posted 31 May 2004 - 11:24 AM
Not only that.... The AAII's latest weekly sentiment survey showed more BEARS than bulls for the THIRD straight week... even as stocks were RISING.
The high put/call ratio, the persistent survey bearishness, good amrket internals and the relatively high MF cash levels is something I've been harping on about for over a week now. But now, when I see the same stuff in the face of a RISING market, I can only conclude that the Wall of Worry is alive and well, and that we can only go higher from here.... for the time being.
There will always be a better opportunity to short this pig, but I think we can do it from much higher levels.
Posted 31 May 2004 - 11:29 AM
bulls outnumbered bears by 3 to 1 most of last year and the market rose anyway.
Posted 31 May 2004 - 11:32 AM
WOULD THINGS change legally,if they made the new fiat into the shape of sockeye salmon?? or herring or whatever species of sub-aquaatic ;ife currently in danger???
beardrech Those that say dont know; those that know dont tell--Will you boil it or fry it? To hell with that; throw the carp on number 7--Fine,Sir,but remeber ocean flounder is unacceptable at the gaming tables--and the cook will not accept chips from gamers who've overstayed their hands--Is that clear???Oh by the way sir Losers will be warned to please use the lifeboats--
Posted 31 May 2004 - 12:08 PM
I'm calling bullshit. How does the P/C ratio get so far out of whack relative to trend without collapsing the markets in the process? (what we've seen since January is no collapse in my book). Why then must the markets rocket northward as the P/C resets to normal?
Posted 31 May 2004 - 12:09 PM
call Detroit.....tell dem bullshit.....tell dem trade me right f**king now!
Posted 31 May 2004 - 12:11 PM
If bulls had outnumbered bears as the market FELL or as market internals deteriorated, I'd see that as a bearish omen. That was not the case last year, and I mistakenly sold in the middle of the rally because I didn't pay attention to the tape. Sentiment indicators work better for me when they diverge from the prevailing trend or underlying internals.
I'll be ready to short this rally once price action and internals start to deteriorate and bullishness is peaking, which has yet to happen.
Posted 31 May 2004 - 12:19 PM
Check out this weekly chart for the Equity put/call ratio.
I've put a 5 week mov.avg, and you can see it is currently at 1.03.
It is higher than the very significant March 2003 bottom.
It is higher than the very significant October 2002 bottom.
It is higher than the very significant October 1998 bottom.
It is at its highest point in 8 years.
Sorry, but I can't ignore this.
Posted 31 May 2004 - 12:25 PM
no one's asking you to ignore it. I'd just love to know how the accumulation of so many put contracts did not result in a much larger drop in market prices, yet the truism of a "high P/C ratio" implies that the market must rocket upwards as the put positions are closed. Who the hell is on the other side of the trade? There must be a lot of spec longs out there too.
Posted 31 May 2004 - 12:26 PM
all those other bottoms had significant price destruction and palpable panic
Posted 31 May 2004 - 12:28 PM
One reason may be that the drop in the indexes was much milder than the drop in the average stock during this year.no one's asking you to ignore it. I'd just love to know how the accumulation of so many put contracts did not result in a much larger drop in market prices, yet the truism of a "high P/C ratio" implies that the market must rocket upwards as the put positions are closed. Who the hell is on the other side of the trade? There must be a lot of spec longs out there too.
From this week's Barrons:
"Going into last week, Smith Barney strategists had calculated that the average decline from their 2004 high of stocks in the S&P 1500 (encompassing large and small stocks) was 16%. The average drop from their 52-week high was 18%"
Posted 31 May 2004 - 12:30 PM
Just as over 50% of the volume on the NYSE is now from program trading, I suspect a great deal of the P/C ratio is now due to increased hedging as opposed to speculation.
This link helps break down the flow in the options market.
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