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B4 The Bell Frieday May 28


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 07:12 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

The odd couple, Taiwan and China, the yin and the yang, have steped up to take the place of Uncle Fukui in buying US dollars. Although at the slower rate than the hyper pace of $ buying by the Minsitry of Finance in the first quarter, foreign central banks have bought $35 billion of US Treasury issues since April 1 - or a $260 billion annual rate.

Again AG finds someone to facilitate his credit expansion. Mainland China is absorbing dollars involuntarily because of hot money trying to front run a probable upward valuation of the yuan.

What if something happened to oil supplies?

With demand high, supplies squeezed, prices climbing and refineries already running flat out, what if something really went wrong? Something like a terror attack on crucial oil installations in Saudi Arabia or in the United States, or something less sinister but just as disruptive, like a fire or accident at a major refinery or port or a flare-up of civil or labor turmoil in Nigeria or Venezuela?

http://www.nytimes.c.../28disrupt.html

Bad weather ahead, as Hypertiger says, this taken from a discussion about the Weather Channel:

"This weekend may be the worst outbreak of severe weather for the entire year..." - The WX Channel

I just caught the tail end of the Storm Watch section that always comes on at 50 after the hour on The Weather Channel.

The Meteorologist was discussing a super strong weather system that is coming in from the Pacific and it is likely going to cause outbreak of very severe storms across Midwest USA from Texas all the way north towards Canada border.

He said that these storms should be forming in that area by Saturday and it could be widespread! He thought this outbreak would be very, very bad and emphasized that this thing could bring the worst storms for entire year (WOW).

So keep this in mind as you make plans and stay safe!


http://www.weather.c...tml?from=0803wc

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 07:32 AM

Warren Buffett and Jimmy Rogers could both be working for either Homeland Secruity or the Justice Dept. They were two weeks ahead of Jon Ashcroft in telling us that the dollar is going down. Maybe I'm being too cynical, but I don't think so. People are going to be buying PM's and commodities because of fears of terrorism -- at least that looks like the setup. How long before crapvision offers us that explanation? No terror attack over the holiday weekend -- stocks will rocket north on Tuesday. This is probably just the beginning of the bushman's summer campaign -- just a repeat of last summer.

#3 DrStool

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 07:56 AM

That's ludicrous. The 6 month cycle indicator on the dollar started giving sell signals last month, and confirmed them approximately two weeks ago. I called attention to it at those times, and anyone looking at longer term indicators would have seen it.

This conspiracy stuff has gone too damn far. Slandering people like Rogers and Buffet is way out of line.

I want it to stop.

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#4 DrStool

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 07:57 AM

Some people need to get clear on who are our friends and who aren't.

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#5 DrStool

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 07:59 AM

Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

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#6 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 08:04 AM

With regards to last night

Sled
A big congrats. Seeme we have a few grandfathers that reside on this site of wisdom. Nice to see.
Plunger
Your messages are carried beyond then this thread. Without ones of your character there would be little hope. You and all stoolies give me reason to believe the truth will prevail.
Brian
Thanks for your thread and your contributions. Many great minds have found their way to the Bell.

HB
Vely interesting
That is the first time I have heard anything about Chinese/Taiwanese buying of the clownbuck. They must be smarting unless they hedged their purchases with the bonds.
Speaking of which...
Anyone got a take on the bond strength/dollar weakness? If US debt is in demand why not the buck?
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 08:10 AM

That's ludicrous. The 6 month cycle indicator on the dollar started giving sell signals last month, and confirmed them approximately two weeks ago. I called attention to it at those times, and anyone looking at longer term indicators would have seen it.

This conspiracy stuff has gone too damn far. Slandering people like Rogers and Buffet is way out of line.

I want it to stop.

Slandering Buffett and Rogers surely wasn't my intent. I have high regard for both and believe that they are two of the sharpest cookies out there. Maybe my post was vague or you are reading something into it that isn't there. I was throwing stones at the government authorities who appear to be responding to currently market conditions with more terror alerts -- Jon Ashcroft issues "buy recommendation" on PM's. :D

#8 Hiding Bear

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 08:13 AM

HB
Vely interesting
That is the first time I have heard anything about Chinese/Taiwanese buying of the clownbuck. They must be smarting unless they hedged their purchases with the bonds.
Speaking of which...
Anyone got a take on the bond strength/dollar weakness? If US debt is in demand why not the buck?

Some clarification off my thoughts are in order -

Mainland China in its attempts to stabilize the dollar exchange rate keeps accumulating dollars. Don't think there is any intention by either China to raise the value of the dollar, which was the obvious goal of the BOJ/MOF before. The dollar will probably do exactly what Doc says it will - go down.

China forex regulator warns will punish QFIIs found speculating on yuan

AFX Europe (Focus); May 28, 2004

BEIJING (AFX-ASIA) - China's foreign exchange regulator warned that foreign investors bringing money into the country through the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor scheme will be punished if they are found to be speculating on a rise in the yuan or interest rates.

However, SAFE has noticed that some QFIIs have a disporportionately high level of bank deposits.

But he warned, "If we discover that QFIIs are coming into China to speculate on a rise in the yuan exchange rate and interest rates, with long-term deposits at banks but no securities investment, we will take measures to restrict them and may even cancel their investment licenses as speculation is not the purpose of the QFII scheme."


http://search.ft.com...arch&state=Form

#9 Hiding Bear

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 08:16 AM

Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

I like the smell of rising gold cmaps in the morning! :P

#10 The brown one

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 08:23 AM

This isn't really B4TB stuff but look at some U-Ropean indices and their wedgies.Not too boolish methinks.

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#11 longOnUranus

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 08:29 AM

This conspiracy stuff has gone too damn far. Slandering people like Rogers and Buffet is way out of line.

I want it to stop.

All these slanderers need to be hung from a limb. We call this a possie (?sp) where I come frum. Hell with this conspiracy crap.

On the subject of heretics, would it be too out of line to call for a nice bloody red opening? Numbers coming soon.....Rick Santelli's got his binoculars on...

ok...yup...futures movin' up now...time to go to my Heretics Anonymous meeting. Bye yall.

#12 DrStool

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 08:38 AM

That's ludicrous. The 6 month cycle indicator on the dollar started giving sell signals last month, and confirmed them approximately two weeks ago. I called attention to it at those times, and anyone looking at longer term indicators would have seen it.

This conspiracy stuff has gone too damn far. Slandering people like Rogers and Buffet is way out of line.

I want it to stop.

Slandering Buffett and Rogers surely wasn't my intent. I have high regard for both and believe that they are two of the sharpest cookies out there. Maybe my post was vague or you are reading something into it that isn't there. I was throwing stones at the government authorities who appear to be responding to currently market conditions with more terror alerts -- Jon Ashcroft issues "buy recommendation" on PM's. :D

Dashley- OK. No problem. I have just noticed a lot of mud slinging toward Buffet and Rogers lately, and I think its off base.

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#13 DrStool

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 08:42 AM

Brown one- Those are the classic rising wedges described by Edwards and Magee. Very nice.

qqq gapped down in the pre market open and is just sitting there after coming within .03 of the 3 day cycle cmap. That is a glimmer of hope, at least.

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#14 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 08:53 AM

Does anybody have the proper link to the actual consumer spending data on the Dept. of Commerce website? The latest news I can find there is dated yesterday, yet the "solid increase in spending" being touted needs further analysis. From the press release I see:

Spending on "nondurables," such as food and clothes, actually dipped in April by 0.1 percent, compared with a 0.9 percent rise the month before.

Spending on services, which includes gas and electric utilities, went up by 0.5 percent in April, following a 0.3 percent increase.



#15 Hiding Bear

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Posted 28 May 2004 - 09:01 AM

Does anybody have the proper link to the actual consumer spending data on the Dept. of Commerce website? The latest news I can find there is dated yesterday, yet the "solid increase in spending" being touted needs further analysis. From the press release I see:

Spending on "nondurables," such as food and clothes, actually dipped in April by 0.1 percent, compared with a 0.9 percent rise the month before.

Spending on services, which includes gas and electric utilities, went up by 0.5 percent in April, following a 0.3 percent increase.

Go to http://www.economicindicators.gov/

Scroll down to personal income.

This will give you most of the basic figures.





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