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B4 the Bell, Fryday May 21, 2004


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#16

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:21 AM

On Wednesday, the perfect trade was to go long gold in the morning, which coincided with a pop in the markets generally...then at the mid-day point, sell the miners and short the dogs for last half...then get flat at the end of the day.

It worked, and today has the potential for a repeat.

Bought some miners at the close yesterday and expect follow through this morning.

I would be careful about a quick scalp trade of gold on the long side. Gold has been very, very quiet overnight, all night, with very little action and barely any price movement, just a very slow and mild drift upwards.

Unfortunately, this is the quintessential lead-in recipe for a Comex Crush. Even worse, today is Friday. While the cretins may not do it right at the open, the classic 12:30 - 1:30 Comex Crush is a distinct possibility.

#17 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:25 AM

Gold will stay firm if the clownbuck stays weak
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#18 DrStool

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:27 AM

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#19 wndysrf

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:33 AM

N. Ron Shrubbard:

What do you mean??

These markets have been the most predictable, the easiest to play.

Step One

Buy all dips in the late afternoon.

Step Two

Sell all rallies at 10:00am after the futures jamming

Step Three

Repeat every day, because The Matrix is able to bend the markets at will.
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#20

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:41 AM

Gold and silver blasting off...dollar getting pummeled.

Looks like the right bet, at least until 12:30

#21 Henny Penny

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:54 AM

N. Ron Shrubbard:

What do you mean??

These markets have been the most predictable, the easiest to play.

Step One

Buy all dips in the late afternoon.

Step Two

Sell all rallies at 10:00am after the futures jamming

Step Three

Repeat every day, because The Matrix is able to bend the markets at will.

Any bets against the matrix are bets on the matrix breaking , not bending.

#22

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:56 AM

N. Ron Shrubbard:

What do you mean??

These markets have been the most predictable, the easiest to play.

Step One

Buy all dips in the late afternoon.

Step Two

Sell all rallies at 10:00am after the futures jamming

Step Three

Repeat every day, because The Matrix is able to bend the markets at will.

I believe I mean the same thing as you. Jam by night, only to fall apart by day. Therefore, on the next night, jam by night, ...

By selling and buying during the market session, I see that you can avoid futures, if you want to avoid them, and can simply trade QQQ and/or SPY shares. Even exposed to the entire overnight session, I can imagine that trade still exceeds a 70% win percentage, maybe by a lot. Do you trade this?

Sometimes I am tempted to open an E-mini account in order to trade this more tightly. For example, enter on a dip in the evening and then sell around 7:00 a.m., before the bulk of the various forms of news noise come in that may mess up the trade. I suspect this trade would have a win percentage in the 80% - 90% range.

Lock Limit Down is currently (I believe) doing a statistical study on the 3:00 a.m. jam in an attempt to precisely quantify all of this. He has said he will post his results, once he finds time and gets around to doing the study.

#23 wndysrf

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 08:57 AM

yobob1:

Crapview touting $2 million RV coaches and $300,000 RV parking spots in Palm Springs.......
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#24

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 09:02 AM

Gold and silver blasting off...dollar getting pummeled.

Looks like the right bet, at least until 12:30

Good call.

Gold is sporting a hefty +$5.00 stiffy over just the last 30 minutes. I haven't seen that since what seems like ages ago.

#25 Henny Penny

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 09:08 AM

The markets, in their Pavlovian fashion, are salivating at the prospects of OPEC helping out their "friends" in the US ( in their weekend meeting). Therefore - the reflation regime is in effect ; Currencies UP, Gold UP, Bonds UP, Stocks UP.
It is a reasonable bet that OPEC will do diddly - so on Monday the reverse regime may come back into effect.
because : high oil is a liquidity drainer?

#26 Henny Penny

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 09:14 AM

Is it not a reasonable hypothesis that rising oil prices vacuum up US dollars from around the world and deposit them into saudi arabia and other middle east countries , that probably keep their petro dollars in bank deposits and T-Bills ? Therefore, markets that are hypersensitive to free US Dollar liquidity all fall down in a heap. lower oil prices will have the reverse effect.

#27 trinharder

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 09:16 AM

If what I have heard is correct, there will be no actual increase in OPEC production, only a ligitimization of the current overproduction (cheating).

#28

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 09:18 AM

Inflation? Deflation? Stagflation?

Staggering Indeflation!!!!

#29 Henny Penny

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 09:26 AM

If what I have heard is correct, there will be no actual increase in OPEC production, only a ligitimization of the current overproduction (cheating).

There is a range of 0.5 to 2 million barrels/day of excess production capacity in the world - most of it in saudi. So even if they wanted to "cheat" ( note the perjorative term used instead of a more standard MBA term like - rationalize), there is limited ability to do so.
What should be scary is the often unmentioned fact that it is Their oil , not ours. And , like any good business they want to get the best price for their product - they are not a non-profit charity.

#30 brian4

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 09:27 AM

Morning Crew- Go Gold Go- 15 straight weeks now where Fund outflows have exceeded inflows-as I have said before $ are the mothers milk of the markets and they ain't getting any. That post by Zen is one to keep an eye on, I just heard an FBI warning to look for suicide bombers-so something is up. 50 minute window opens at the Bell-Helmets and flack jackets on pls! ;)





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