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B4 The Bell, Humpday, May 19


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 07:07 AM

:D Welcome to B4 the Bell! :D

No problem with the economy here is there?

Glut of SUVs Prompts Round Of Discounts

With gas prices at a record high and Wall Street turning against their stocks, Detroit's auto makers are trying to avoid reliving the late 1970s, when high oil prices slashed demand for the V-8 powered gas guzzlers of the era.

General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group have again ratcheted up discounts on their largest and least fuel-efficient models in hopes of moving out a glut of unsold pickups and sport-utility vehicles.

GM has now raised discounts on its largest SUVs twice this month. The latest move last week raised some cash rebate offers by $500. Coupled with other truck promotions, buyers can now get up to $5,000 in cash rebates on the extended versions of the GMC Yukon XL, Yukon XL Denali and Chevrolet Suburban.

In pickup trucks, Ford boosted incentives on its F-150 models by $500, bringing cash rebate on the 4-door Supercrew to $1,500 and incentives on other body styles to $2,000.

An April drop in SUV sales has claimed victims among several hot sellers, including GM's Hummer H2, Ford's Expedition, and the Chevrolet Suburban.

Inventories of midsize and large sport utilities at the end of April were enough to last for more than 100 days at April's sales pace, according to Autodata Corp. figures. That's substantially more than the 60 to 65 days' supply the industry prefers. By contrast, inventories of car-based crossover wagons -- generally more fuel-efficient than large SUVs built on pickup truck frames -- were at 65 days' supply at the end of April.

The Big Three depend on North American light trucks for 60% of their global profits, says Sean McAlinden of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich. Despite a wave of investment in new sedans and more efficient car-based crossover wagons, the Big Three still trail the major Japanese auto makers in those sectors.

Auto-industry executives are quick to blame the price cuts on intense competition among trucks and SUVs, as opposed to rising gasoline prices. Retail U.S. gas prices reached an average of $2.02 cents a gallon as of May 17, according to the Energy Information Administration. On the West Coast, prices increased to $2.24 a gallon up from $2.08 earlier in the month.


http://online.wsj.co...0414905,00.html?
mod=home_whats_news_us

Greespan gets a fifth term term but still doesn't see any bubbles:

The Bubbles Mr. Greenspan has Created!
by Marc Faber

Credit has to be given to Mr. Greenspan. By bailing out the S&L Associations in 1990 he contributed to the creation of the emerging market bubble of 1994, which led to the Mexican crisis. Then, by bailing out Mexico - with the then acting Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin's help - he contributed to the emerging market debt excesses that led to the Russian crisis and the LTCM debacle of 1998. Again he bailed out the system with an enormous liquidity injection and created in the process financial history's biggest bubble - the NASDAQ bubble of 1999/2000. But until then, Mr. Greenspan was only a "serial" bubble blower. He managed to create bubbles, but only one at the time and in different asset classes, at different times and in different parts of the world. But this time around, we have to give him far more credit for his monetary achievements and nominate him for a Nobel Price in bubble creation. After all, he is the first central banker in the history of capitalism who has managed to not only create a credit bubble in the US, which has led to the entire mortgage refinancing scheme, excessive household borrowings, over-consumption, and a growing current account deficit, but he has also miraculously managed to create bubbles all over the world - in stocks and bonds of emerging economies, the currencies of Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, in housing, and lastly in Chinese capital spending, which is now growing by more than 40% per annum, as well as in commodity prices (see figure below).


http://www.safehaven...rticle-1558.htm

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#2 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 07:26 AM

Mortgage Applications Dropped Last Week

New loan requests for home purchases fell by 8.1%
The refinancing index fell by 16.8%

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 07:29 AM

Looks like Wall Street is going to throw a "He's our man" celebration party for the greenman today. Corks are popping early.

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 07:31 AM

Keep an eye on gold and the USD today...looks like gold may go off.

#5 Hiding Bear

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 07:33 AM

Mortgage Applications Dropped Last Week

New loan requests for home purchases fell by 8.1%
The refinancing index fell by 16.8%

From talking to people in real estate here in NJ, the mortgage figures accurately tell the story that demand for larger homes has really cooled off lately. Price reductions are becoming common.

Col Dashley - "Here's our man" rally in China too - Even though Taiwan is buying up its own stocks to prop the market for CHen's new term, mainland China is not celebrating:

China Steps Up Demands on Taiwan's Chen

By AUDRA ANG
The Associated Press
Wednesday, May 19, 2004; 4:36 AM

BEIJING - China called on Taiwan's president to renounce possible plans for independence on the eve of his inauguration to a new term, warning that it isn't afraid to attack the island even if that means sacrificing good relations with Washington.

China "will never tolerate Taiwan independence," the Communist Party newspaper People's Daily and other state media said in a series of bellicose commentaries Wednesday.

They warned that Beijing is ready to use "non-peaceful means" to keep President Chen Shui-bian from trying to make the self-ruled island's de facto independence permanent.


http://www.washingto...-2004May19.html

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 07:38 AM

Iossif on NASDog.......

FRAUD AND DECEPTION IS THE ORDER OF THE DAY!
I have always believed that the stock market is the heart of the capitalist system. The ability to raise capital by young companies thru the efficiency of the financial markets has enabled our country to achieve wealth unmatched by any other country in the post-Industrial Age. Unfortunately over the past decade, and especially over the past five years, the financial markets have been transformed into a huge casino—and this is an understatement. In a recent email to me, Mr. Martin Goldberg, put it in much more blatant terms:
"...with the stock market appearing like brothel with all the late trading, insider trading, program trading, accounting shenanigans, earnings management, insider selling, and media spin, etc., who in their right mind can hold Exxon Mobil (in a college savings account yet) when it goes to $36?"

"Brothel?" That's a pretty strong word. Yet, it totally encapsulates the disgust of many professionals when it comes to the un-ending "late trading, insider trading, program trading, accounting shenanigans, earnings management, insider selling, and media spin" that seem to be the order of the day. A good example—in my humble view—is what took place on Friday, May 7, 2004. As many may recall, on that day the bond market plunged and so did many stocks at the NYSE. In fact, that day the NYSE experienced one of the worst breadth ratios ever, 12:1! On that day 256 issues advanced, while 3152 declined and the NYSE fell 119 points. Interestingly, NASDAQ and most notably the NDX held rather well. The NDX fell just 12.82 points, while the shameless talking heads at Crapvision marveled throughout the entire day at the "strength" and "resilience" exhibited by tech, which they immediately interpreted to be a "good thing" for the market!

At the end of the day, I looked under the surface to see how much strength there really was in tech. On that day NASDAQ had 832 advancing issues, 2343 declining issues, 587,109,000 shares made up the up volume, and 1,012,777,000 made up the down volume. To begin with I do not think a market with a breadth 3:1 in favor of decliners is a "strong" market, despite the blubbering to the contrary by the spin masters of Crapvision and the like. Second, in examining the up volume that accompanied the up issues, this is what I found out:

Just 18 stocks of the 832 advancing ones were responsible for 347,000,0000 shares of the 587,109,000 that made up the up volume. In other words, 2% of all advancing issues were responsible for 59% of all the up volume! Moreover, by some "strange" coincidence, all of those 18 stocks were components of the NDX!

http://www.financial...rket/wrapup.htm

#7 Bearman

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 07:50 AM

Hunter65 I read that on LOB. all I have to say is

UFB ! the mania continues

#8 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 07:51 AM

Here in Ontario, perhaps even the government is getting it that house valuations can't just go up forever. This year they tried to increase the valuation of our house 29% (from an already high base) in an opportunistic attempt to raise more landtaxes to cover excessive debt obligations, incurred in the fantasy period when economic cycles were confidently assumed to be up forever.

Yesterday, they graciously agreed to a revised, less outlandish, 12% increase.

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 08:02 AM

Here in Ontario, perhaps even the government is getting it that house valuations can't just go up forever. This year they tried to increase the valuation of our house 29% (from an already high base) in an opportunistic attempt to raise more landtaxes to cover excessive debt obligations, incurred in the fantasy period when economic cycles were confidently assumed to be up forever.

Yesterday, they graciously agreed to a revised, less outlandish, 12% increase.

Different Central Banks but still appropriate....

What's Really Eating the Markets? U.S. Debt
By Peter Eavis
Senior Columnist
5/18/2004 7:02 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet...x/10160722.html

#10 DrStool

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 08:28 AM

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#11 wndysrf

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 08:40 AM

Hey Col. Dashley....

Did you see this???

Taiwan's Taiex rose 302.90 to 5860.58. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest supplier of made-to-order chips, jumped 6.7 percent to NT$55.50. Cathay Financial Holding Co., Taiwan's largest insurer, climbed 6.4 percent to NT$57.

The National Stabilization Fund, which has NT$130 billion ($3.8 billion) in cash on hand, will buy stocks at an ``appropriate'' time, said Gordon Chen, vice finance minister and executive secretary of the committee that oversees the fund said. He declined to elaborate.

``The government entered to support the market, focusing on financial shares,'' said Charles Chen, who helps manage $149 million at JF Asset Management Co. in Taipei.

PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#12 K Wave Rider

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 08:43 AM

Up against a declining 200 MA on the Dow hourly futures..bears need to hope this contains the damage..

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 08:45 AM

Quote Dr Stool, yesterday:
Sherlock-

The interest paid on T notes and bills is determined at the auction. In other words, market. Last week's 5 year notes went off at around 4.85. They traded as low as 4.70 yesterday. Dem's the breaks. We are on the hook for 4.85.

Keep in mind, the gummit is only a conduit. We, as in I, you, me, and us, pay the interest.
_______________

Thanks, Doc!
So the additional $25B requested last week by Defense will cost $1.2B more.
When you consider the total debt, the numbers are beyond comprehension.

Yesterday, McCain and Lieberman joined forces to push for fiscal reform.

How about starting a "Fiscal Reform Party" and elect McCain as President?
He sure is coming across lately as strong Presidential material. IMHO
We need to get our house in order before we "fix" all the other things in
our society.

Bad news coming out of Gaza this morning. Horrific!

Sherlock

#14 Drano

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 08:51 AM

A friend moving from the midwest to the southwest for job reasons had to buy a house in the new place -- fortunately locked in a 6% mortgage and was lucky to get that. Meanwhile, the midwest house is not selling, despite being in a hot (apparently, FORMERLY hot) area. So now he's going to get to pay two mortgages while he waits for his now reduced-price house to sell. May have to borrow from his IRA. The horror.
Of course I'm caustic!

#15 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 08:52 AM

Finally the loonie is catching a bid and the gold and silver cartel have slept in
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson





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