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#61 Ned38

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:20 AM

Slightly off topic but Ijust heard an interview with former Clinton advisor Robert Reich

Seems he is...........................................a stoolie

#62 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:21 AM

Ted Spread is widening suggesting dislocation
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#63 Guest_libertas_*

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:22 AM

specie - are you thinking bonds are bottoming here?

i'm just saying that everybody thinks rates are headed to the moon

brilliant people like doc
complete idiots like some borkers i know

very emotional

based on my experience its very likely they drop

these jobs reports have caused traps for a long time not just this year but back in 98 and 2000

i think rates just peaked - depression ahead

FWIW I agree with you. Auto sales, chain store sales, chip inventories. All saying that all is not well. We'll see.

Rothbard's book mentions a "cluster of errors" as everyone gets their forecasting wrong at the onset of the depression.

#64 Bearman

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:26 AM

specie - are you thinking bonds are bottoming here?

i'm just saying that everybody thinks rates are headed to the moon

brilliant people like doc
complete idiots like some borkers i know

very emotional

based on my experience its very likely they drop

these jobs reports have caused traps for a long time not just this year but back in 98 and 2000

i think rates just peaked - depression ahead

FWIW I agree with you. Auto sales, chain store sales, chip inventories. All saying that all is not well. We'll see.

Rothbard's book mentions a "cluster of errors" as everyone gets their forecasting wrong at the onset of the depression.

how many warnings about deflation have you
heard on crapvison?

I rest my case.......

#65 Sirius

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:28 AM

Some one did some great chart work here ahile back comparring the 87 equity mrkt and the 87 bond yld chart (can't remeber if it was 30 or 10's) but anyway one of the key things in that period was after bonds took out there previous swing high yld level they went parabolic into august...granted ylds were at higher levels then but it ws the speed at which the riseoccurred. So where are we in a ver close situation llok at a weekly yld chart .. or monthly the previous high lyld swing pt was the august 03 highs on 30's we are right ther on tens we blsted through it.....one indicator that is often looked at is the long bond yld - sp 500 div yld.....a spread of over 6% is considered bearish and a spread of under 5% is bullish in 87 the spread exceeded 6% in august and stood at 6.9% 1 week before the crash...i'll be watching that spread, but more interestingly to me would be if there is a similar correlation using 10yr yld vs sp500 div yld ...what is its spread threshold? since the 10s are the key in todays mrkt...

#66 orvack

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:33 AM

Orvack, what's the upper band on that chart?  It appears to give excellent signals. 

It's a Walter Bressert (a cycle guy Doc probably knows) trendline.
It's called the EMA%Diff Indicator. Percentage difference between 2 EMA indicators.
Since I can't have Doc working in my basement, when I like a chart, I try to get a confirmation from Bressert's cycle tools. I find it pretty useful.

(ProfitTrader for Metastock)

#67 seamus

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:36 AM

Absolute carnage in the bond market - have to go back to last summer to see the same type of liquidation

All spreads blowing out big time - emerging markets puking, corporates puking, mbs puking, agencies puking...

All street firms now calling for a tightening at the June meeting.

We will get long towards the end of month

#68

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:38 AM

steve mcqueen on the NASDAQ futures, what a surprise <_<

#69 mjkst27

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:39 AM

WTF is with this? stock futures markets no relation to cash?

#70 wndysrf

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:41 AM

Huge jamming in stocks.

Al, GW, and the Plutocrats cannot risk embarrassment.
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#71 GregFokker

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:42 AM

Orvack, what's the upper band on that chart?  It appears to give excellent signals.  

It's a Walter Bressert (a cycle guy Doc probably knows) trendline.
It's called the EMA%Diff Indicator. Percentage difference between 2 EMA indicators.
Since I can't have Doc working in my basement, when I like a chart, I try to get a confirmation from Bressert's cycle tools. I find it pretty useful.

(ProfitTrader for Metastock)

Thanks.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#72 wndysrf

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:43 AM

Heavy jamming in the Supermodels during the Pre-Market was the tip off to the Stick Save
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#73

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:43 AM

all morning stock futures were sharply red

10 minutes after open they all turn green

like magic

how 'bout that? <_<

#74

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:43 AM

I'll be damned, Bob Pissonme was right last night. Stocks do love higher interest rates.

#75 Yaryman

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Posted 07 May 2004 - 09:44 AM

I guess if higher interest rates are good for the market,
higher fuel prices must be even better for it.
:blink: :angry: :blink:





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