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B4 The Bell, Thursday May 6


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#16 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 08:34 AM

Given the simple fact that the housing market has been scraping the bottom of the barrel (meaning taking on all buyers regardless of credit quality) for the last couple of years, I think the housing market dies from exhasution as much or more so than it does from rising rates, though that will be like throwing a drowning man an anchor.

No disagreement there, yobob.

Do you think stories like this one from Macleans count as another proverbial canary in the coal mine?

Canada's rocketing real estate market is defying pessimists -- heck, it's defying realists. KATHERINE MACKLEM explains why, thanks to a solid economy and nesting boomers, it's here to stay.

And how about statements like this:

Rubin agrees it will be a while before this market turns sour. "It'll continue as long as interest rates continue to be low," he says. Contrary to popular wisdom -- and the bond market -- which expects interest rates to creep up in the near future, Rubin goes so far as to suggest there won't be a rate increase in the U.S. (which can trigger a copycat jump in Canada) at all this year. "Never in the history of the Federal Reserve Board has it raised rates during an election year," Rubin says. In Canada, not only are interest rates not going up, they may come down further, he predicts. "As long as interest rates stay at these levels, the housing market will continue to defy what normally are fundamental constraints."


Does this guy think the Fed sets mortgage rates, and besides, where does he get the idea that rates have never been raised in election years?

Not here, evidently:

http://mortgagealman...electionyr.html

While the Federal Reserve has not made major changes in rates during these election years, the interest rate markets have been rocked back and forth by several market forces. It is these forces of market expectations, inflation and international interest rates, much more than current Federal Reserve policy, that will have the greatest impact on the direction of interest rates this fall.


Analysis of these three election years clearly proves three facts: First, the Federal Reserve has maintained tough, neutral and accommodating monetary policy over the last three elections. Second, interest rates have been increasing, steady and decreasing during these election years. Finally, whether interest rates are increasing or decreasing appears to have no impact on the outcome of a presidential election.



#17 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 08:37 AM

UI Weekly Claims
In the week ending May 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 315,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week's [upwardly] revised figure of 340,000. The 4-week moving average was 343,250, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average of 347,000.

http://www.ows.dolet...claims_arch.asp

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#18 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 08:39 AM

There goes 4.6% on the 10 Year
The jobs report tomorrow becomes worse by the minute....

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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#19 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 08:40 AM

Silver and gold being slapped as expected and on matrix sched
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#20 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 08:43 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. first quarter business productivity grew at a respectable pace, the government said on Thursday, but unit labor costs unexpectedly edged higher in a mild challenge to the Federal Reserve's view inflation is no threat.
http://story.news.ya...productivity_dc

#21 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 08:48 AM

Housing has achieved a permanently higher plateau of growth.

There, I saved some bubblehead the trouble. :lol:

No trouble ahead Captain, just a few scattered reports of icebergs. Full speed ahead!

#22 Hiding Bear

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 08:53 AM

I used to wade throught the automakers reports to pull out the fleet sales ratios.  In short fleet sales in current atuospeak is the selling of vehicles to their fully owned rental agencies.  It's a nifty way to off load excess inventory which will quickly find their way to the auction maket.  Hudson over at Prubear saved me the trouble this time, so for those wondering what delayed GM's sales report - it was paperwork.

Hudson at Prubear - Mid week Analysis

Additionally, most of GM’s sales were driven by fleet sales, which rose 30%.  Retail sales fell 8%. The slower sales pushed inventory levels up to 85 days, about 18% higher than last month.  Fleet sales are also helping Ford.  Fleet sales rose 9% while retail sales fell 9%. Ford’s inventories also increased substantially, up to 87 day.  This is about 20% higher than average inventory levels.  With inventories high at most automakers, the next couple months might be a good time to “hold hands and buy a SUV,” to borrow a line from our hometown central banker, Bob McTeer.

Once again, the lagging data is confirming a marked deterioration in the consumer market.  Not to fret, I think it's going to get much worse in the month's ahead.  The consistent high price of fuel, with no relief in sight is starting to affect buying decisions.  With Detroit's offereings loaded with gas guzzling SUVs and trucks they are in for a very rough stretch.  If the consumer goes away and becomes fuel sensitive Detroit could fail totally.  Bye-Bye Ford first.

Ties in with the increase in auto rebates announced yesterday.

The Treasury Dept. says that the deficit was less than expected in April. Could it be that all the tax rebate money was already received and spent in the first quarter? Looks like it. On top of that, another explanation for the stronger than expected tax inflow is that personal taxes were not cut as much as advertised (alternative minimum tax kicking in) and corporate income taxes were helped greatly by profits in the energy industry.

#23 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 08:57 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. first quarter business productivity grew at a respectable pace, the government said on Thursday, but unit labor costs unexpectedly edged higher in a mild challenge to the Federal Reserve's view inflation is no threat.
http://story.news.ya...productivity_dc

I would venture a guess that unit labor costs are affected by rising health insurance costs much more so than outright wage increases. I also expect that unemployment claims will reverse their current trend within a few months as the reality of this economy slams full speed into the "happy talk".

The betting pool for tommorrows employment report is now open. The bond market is front-running a high number. Bush is pounding the table demanding that Chao produce or get lost. My guess? Bush wins. 500,000 new stable cleaning jobs will be created.

#24 wndysrf

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 09:04 AM

Silver and gold being slapped as expected and on matrix sched

What did you expect??

The breach of the 4.6% on the TNX means that the Derivative Tower is now officially on fire.

Any and all resources must be gathered to crush gold and silver prices to avoid having any alarms go off in the Speculative Arena.

You have to give a Golf Clap to The Matrix.

I've never seen such a valuable commodity so easily manipulated at will.

Fortunes are being made by shorting the spikes every day on gold and covering after the morning slap down.

By far, its the easiest, most predictable trade on the planet.
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#25 K Wave Rider

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 09:12 AM

FUGLY opening coming while Euroland burns..let's see if they can finally break the back of the HGX today..

#26 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 09:16 AM

I am frothing at the mouth here.
The bond continues to say trouble ahead.
Interest rate sensitive stocks and especially the GSEs "What me worry" era is about to come to an abrupt ending. Collapse is imminent. The puts I have picked up in recent months on these darlings are about to catch a serious bid.
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#27 brian4

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 09:28 AM

Morning crew- Today is the DAY-circle it it In RED ink-the wheels fall off-window at the bell for 40 minutes-SHORT and luvvin it! ;) Helmets on, buckle up!

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 09:28 AM

Speak, Oh toothless wonder!

:)

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 09:31 AM

some serious dip buyers in the QQQ's. But the question is will it last?

#30 brian4

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Posted 06 May 2004 - 09:33 AM

stop 1121





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