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#31 traderfromhell

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Posted 15 June 2004 - 05:50 AM

Small position long side golds closed out using perhaps Gann's most important lesson. Stop Loss.
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#32 traderfromhell

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Posted 16 June 2004 - 05:51 AM

HUI rallied back up to the 50% retrace at 183 and give or take some lost motion should renew it's descent from these levels. Stopped around the 2/3 yesterday but not holding the 50 makes the long side suspect now in my opinion. Looking for a retest of the bottom. Upside volume remains putrid.
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#33 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 20 June 2004 - 10:43 AM

GANN SEASONALS


"The averages of stocks and many of the individual stocks make important bottoms and tops according to the Seasonal Changes"
WDGann

Gann analyzed the time axis using three methods, if anyone knows of more please let me know:
1) Seasonals
2) Gann Emblem and other Fixed Squares
3) Square of Nine

The simplest concept are seasonal and basically refer to the equinoxes and solstices. In addition he would add @15 days to each and often and I don't know why look for the turns there. In other words always look at these dates for major market turns especially when other technical factors point to a topping or bottoming process.

Dec 22-Jan 6
March 21-April 5
June 22-July7
Sept 23-Oct8 8

Let's look at the current AORD for example:

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#34 traderfromhell

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Posted 20 June 2004 - 11:10 AM

This would be another example of lost motion that Gann spoke about. I think it also pertains to time as well as price. We are coming up to a fairly important turn in Gold on June 21. This is 32 years from the low of 296.50 coming off the January 20th 1980 high.
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#35

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Posted 21 June 2004 - 03:46 AM

Gann analyzed the time axis using three methods, if anyone knows of more please let me know:
1) Seasonals
2) Gann Emblem and other Fixed Squares
3) Square of Nine

It seems to me that pretty much all of Gann’s methods are somehow related to time, although some are more obvious than others.

FYI, below find my version of the time rules from the ‘Methods of forecasting’ course. I made these notes some time ago and never really proofread them so I hope they are reasonably accurate.

However, I am far from certain that the rules as provided and explicitly understood are of much value, certainly today.

I find that a feature of Gann’s writing is that it tends to be hopelessly vague and opaque though I am pretty certain there are hidden meanings. For this reason since people will interpret the same words differently I believe it is important to read the original words and try to see what you can personally get out of it. This is not to in any way denigrate the very helpful experience you are generous enough to share with us, Hank; again thanks.

For what it’s worth I would tend to agree with the apparent consensus that Gann’s emphasis on the 10 year cycle somehow relates to the synodic Jupiter/Saturn cycle which runs approximately 19.9 years from conjunction to conjunction. The 10 and 5 year divisions are then consequently opposition (180) and square (90 & 270 degree) aspects related to this and the great cycle which is separately referred to as around 60 years is a triple cycle, returning the conjunction to the same area in the zodiac. Note also that that 30 and 50 year cycles referred to below are respectively 1.5 and 2.5 cycles.

GANN'S TIME FORECASTING RULES

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The stock market moves in 10 year cycles, which is worked out in 5 year cycles - a 5 year cycle up and a 5 year cycle down.


Rule 1 - Bull or Bear campaigns do not run more than 3-3 1/2 years

Then there is always a move of 3 to 6 months or 1 year in the opposite direction.  Many campaigns culminate in the 23rd month, not running out the full two years.  Watch the weekly and monthly charts to determine whether the culmination will occur in the 23rd or 24th month of the move, or in the 34 to 35, 41 to 42, 49-60, 67-72 or 94 to 96th months.



Rule 2 - A Bull campaign runs 5 years

2 years up, 1 year down and 2 years up completing a 5 year cycle.  The end of a 5 year cycle comes in the 59th or 60th month.  Always watch for the change in the 59th month.



Rule 3 - A Bear cycle runs 5 years down

First move 2 years down, then 1 year up and 2 years down completing the 5 year down swing



Rule 4 - Any top plus 10 years

Add ten years to any top and it will give you another top of a 10 year cycle with about the same average fluctuations



Rule 5 - Any bottom plus 10 years

Add 10 years to any bottom and it will give you the next bottom of 10 year cycle and of the same kind of a year and about the same average fluctuation



Rule 6 - Bear campaigns run out in 7 years

Or 3 years and 4 years from any complete bottom.  From any complete bottom of a cycle first add 3 years to get the next bottom; then add 4 years to get to the bottom of the 7 year cycle



Rule 7 - 10 year cycle; top to top to top

From any complete top add 3 years to get the next top.  Then add 3 years to the first top, which gives you the second top.  Add 4 years to the second top to get to the third and final top of the 10 year cycle



Rule 8 - 5 year cycle

Add 5 years to any top, will give you the next bottom of a 5 year cycle with about the same average fluctuations.  In order to get tops of any 5 year cycle add 5 years to any bottom and it will give you the next top with the same average fluctuations.

1917 bottom of a big bear campaign - add 5 years gives 1922 top of a minor bull campaign.  Why "top of a minor bull campaign"?  1919 was a top - add 5 years to to 1919, gives 1924 as bottom of a 5 year bear cycle.  Refer to rules 2 and 3, which will tell you that a bull or bear campaign never runs more than 2 years in the same direction.

The bear campaign from 1919 was down 2 years - 1920 and 1921; therefore, we can only get a 1 year rally in1922 then 2 years down -1923 and 1924 - which completes the 5 year bear cycle.  Now look back at 1913 and 1914 and you will see that 1923 and 1924 must be bear years to complete the 10 year cycle from the bottoms of 1913 and 1914.  Then note 1917 bottom of a bear year add 7 years and it gives 1924 anlso the bottom of a bear cycle



Rule 9 - How to make a forecast for any year

Take 10 years back and the future year will run very close to the last 10 year cycle.  For instance 1932 will run very much like 1902, 1912 and 1922.

There is a major cycle of 30 years, which runs out three 10 year cycles.  The 10 year cycle back from the present and the 29 (sic) year cycle have the most effect on the future.

In completing the 30 year cycle it is best to have 30 years past record to check up to make the future forecast.  For instance, in order to make the 1922 forecast, check 1892, 1902 and 1912 and watch for minor variations in monthly moves, even though 1922 will probably run closest to 1912.  However, some stock will run close to the fluctuations of 1902 or 1892.  Remember each stock works from its own base or top and not always according to average tops and bottoms.  Therefore, judge each stock individually and and keep weekly and monthly charts of them.



Rule 10 - Extreme Great Cycles; the 50 year cycle and the number 7

There must always be a major and a minor, a lesser and a greater, a positive and a negative; that is why stocks have 3 important moves in a 10 year cycle; two tops three years apart and the next one after four years.  This works again in the 5 year moves, two years up and one year down, then two years up - two major and one minor move.

The smallest complete cycle or workout in the market is 5 years (cycle), and 10 years is a complete cycle.  five times ten equals 50, which is the greatest cycle.  At the end of a Great Cycle of 50 years extreme high and low prices occur.  Go over past records and you can verify this.

The number 7 is the basis of time, and a panic occurs in and depression in the market every 7 years, which is extreme and greater than the three-year decline.  Note 1907, 1917, etc. (sic).  Seven times seven is fatal, which makes 49 years and causes extreme fluctuations in the 49th or 50th year.

Remember that you must begin with bottoms or tops to figure all cycles, whether major or minor.

Extreme fluctuations also occur at the end of 30 year cycles as you can see by going back 30 to 50 years.



Rule 11 - Rules described for yearly moves can be applied monthly

Monthly moves can be determined by the same rules as yearly i.e. add three months to a bottom, then add four making seven to get minor bottoms and reaction points.  But remember in a Bull Market a reaction may only last 2 or 3 weeks, then the advance is resumed.  In this way a market may continue up for 12 months without breaking a monthly bottom.  In big up swings a reaction will not last over two months, the third month being up, the same rule as in a yearly cycle - two down and the third up.  The same rule applies in bear markets - bear rallies not lasting more than two months.

Most moves run out in 6-7 weeks. Seven days in a week and 7 times 7 making 49 days, a fatal turning point.  Always watch your annual trend and consider whether you are in a bull or a bear market.  Many times when in a bull year, with the monthly chart showing up, a stock will react two or three weeks, then rest three or four weeks going into new territory and advancing six to seven weeks more.

Always consider whether or not your big time limit has run out before judging a reverse move, and do not fail to consider your indications on time both from main tops and bottoms.



Rule 12 - Daily charts

The daily swing runs on the same rules as the monthly and yearly cycles, but of course it is only a minor part of them.

Important daily changes occur every 7 and 10 days.  During a month natural changes in trend occur around 6-7th, 9-10th, 14-15th, 19-20th, 23-24th and 29-31st.  These minor moves occur in accordance with tops and bottoms of individual stocks.

Watch for a change in trend 30 days from the last top or bottom.  This is very important.  Then watch for a change 60, 90, 120 days from tops or bottoms.  180 days or six months is very important and sometimes marks changes for greater moves..  Also the 9th or 11th month from tops or bottoms should be watched for important minor and often major changes.

A daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 or 10 days, the weekly the next important changes in trend and the monthly the strongest.  Remember weekly moves run 3-7 weeks, monthly moves 2-3 months or more, according the the yearly cycle before reversing.

It is important to note whether a stock is making higher or lower bottoms each year.  For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for 5 years then makes a lower low than the previous year, it is a reversal and may mark a long down cycle.  The same rule applies to stocks making lower tops for a number of years in a bear market.

Study all the rules, read them several times and apply them to actual charts and the methods will become clearer and help to establish the value of this system



#36 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 21 June 2004 - 07:17 AM

I find that a feature of Gann’s writing is that it tends to be hopelessly vague and opaque though I am pretty certain there are hidden meanings. For this reason since people will interpret the same words differently I believe it is important to read the original words and try to see what you can personally get out of it.


I completely agree and found the best way to decipher what he thought important was to see how he actually applied it to charts. Some students of Gann have done a fine job of filtering what observations and methods are most applicable. Gann tended to ramble on and throw in the kitchen sink so to speak and make it very difficult to sort out what was important and what was not!

McLaren does one of the best jobs and makes things much easier and applicable and I highly recommend his course.

Thankyou for going into the "longer" cycles, I was just going to start with the seasonal cycles and then go into some of the more important longer cycles later.
But yes the ten year cycle and decennial cycle are very important. I think year 5's or Gann's "year of ascension" is an important observation and will need to be considered by those of us "too" bearish for 2005!

Regards,
Hank

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Posted 23 June 2004 - 07:17 AM

GANN SEASONALS

The simplest concept are seasonal and basically refer to the equinoxes and solstices. 

. . .Dec 22-Jan 6
March 21-April 5
June 22-July7
Sept 23-Oct8 8

. . .

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#38 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 23 June 2004 - 07:58 AM

MC,

Yeppers Semis could major bottom around this seasonal and then push us into another big rally but so far look sickly as does the BKX.

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#39 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 23 June 2004 - 08:05 AM

But more importantly:

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#40 traderfromhell

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Posted 04 July 2004 - 06:33 AM

Looks like we get a rejection in gold around the 50% retracement in the low 400's. Silver on the other hand can't even muster up a move to the 1/3 retrace around 6.40. Think we can muster up enough volume to at least close one of those gaps we left? SSRI on the other hand has done fairly well considering. We got a move to the 50% retracement area there last week. It would be very discouraging for the silver bulls if gold attacked the 432 area while silver could barely claw it's way back up to the 50 at 6.90. With all it's industrial monetary and medicinal uses why the hell is silver so cheap?

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#41 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 04 July 2004 - 08:50 AM

With all it's industrial monetary and medicinal uses why the hell is silver so cheap?


Why is silver so cheap? I don't have the faintest idea what the answer is. Why anyone other than a mine would sell silver (physical or otherwise) at $5.38, given these fundamentals, is totally beyond my comprehension. The fact is, silver is cheap – dirt cheap – and won't be for much longer.
http://www.gold-eagl...tler101899.html


TFH

Here is an old article but raises the same question and provides some interesting facts. There are more fundamental reasons to be bullish on silver than for gold IMO. But as we know markets never go straight up and currently we are in another speculative mania with everything but PM. I can't help but see more downside in PM and believe we are going to continue to see a larger degree corrective phase consolidating the run up from 2000. If that 375 gives on gold we are going to 350 for sure, maybe even 330ish. Very strong FIB confluence at 375 held but if it gives I think we make a real panic dive and final capitulation for this correction. If 375 holds then it will just take a lot more time and sideways action.
Anyway, I see that 375 is a good place to buy if one is not already fully allocated in bullion which I am. I do not own physical silver and I have @15% investment exposure to mining stocks in PSAFX, UNWPX, and HSTRX funds I own. As you know I trade UNWPX also. I don't trade long anything after a bearish 50/200 DMA cross-over which we have in gold bullion and HUI/XAU. Silver is so volatile, I don't have the stomach for it. Gold is a big enough roller coaster for me! I probably will just continue to stay on the ground and watch you take the ride and hope you all sley the MFing silver manipulators. Such a thin market has got to be getting jacked around a lot.

Hank

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#42 traderfromhell

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Posted 04 July 2004 - 11:04 AM

Still hoping Butler's thesis comes true. BTw have you seen some of Jason Hommel's price targets for silver? Man I sure would like to get my hands on some of what he's smoking. :D :D
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#43 Dharmaeye

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Posted 04 July 2004 - 01:57 PM

Looks like we get a rejection in gold around the 50% retracement in the low 400's. Silver on the other hand can't even muster up a move to the 1/3 retrace around 6.40. Think we can muster up enough volume to at least close one of those gaps we left? SSRI on the other hand has done fairly well considering. We got a move to the 50% retracement area there last week. It would be very discouraging for the silver bulls if gold attacked the 432 area while silver could barely claw it's way back up to the 50 at 6.90. With all it's industrial monetary and medicinal uses why the hell is silver so cheap?

Historically, silver follows the stock market very closely while gold lags- ie gold falls when SM recovery looks like its catching hold- about 4-6 months after bottom.

#44 traderfromhell

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Posted 04 July 2004 - 04:50 PM

Looks like we get a rejection in gold around the 50% retracement in the low 400's. Silver on the other hand can't even muster up a move to the 1/3 retrace around 6.40. Think we can muster up enough volume to at least close one of those gaps we left? SSRI on the other hand has done fairly well considering. We got a move to the 50% retracement area there last week. It would be very discouraging for the silver bulls if gold attacked the 432 area while silver could barely claw it's way back up to the 50 at 6.90. With all it's industrial monetary and medicinal uses why the hell is silver so cheap?

Historically, silver follows the stock market very closely while gold lags- ie gold falls when SM recovery looks like its catching hold- about 4-6 months after bottom.

I don't know about that. Firstly there really isn't that much history for trading gold and silver and secondly we have been in a major bull market in equities since '82 up till 2000. silver didn't do much while the market ran in the '80s and '90s.
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#45 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 05 July 2004 - 12:41 PM

I used to be big on intermarket analysis but no more. They fall in and out of sync all the time and the lead and lag times vary constantly. Doc views helped wean me off this waste of time. I do still think there is value to Relative Strength comparatives since certain sectors always lead and lag and have more influence on indices(i.e. financials). I sure don't see any correlation between the broad equity indices and precious metals. I do think Doc's liquidity measures (Feed and MO) are of the value in anticipating broad market behavior.
Doc's cycle work is exceptional and:
1)SECULAR TREND IS STILL DOWN.
2)WE ARE IN THE WINDOW OF A 4- YEAR CYCLE TOP.

My own analysis (FCS which uses a variety of indicators and has a very profitable history) puts a very high probability that we seeing the 4-yr top NOW with the LT,IT and ST FCS on SP and NDX all pointing down and I have begun entering on the short side.

Currently, if I am correct I fear mining and energy stocks will join the initial downdraft but should show good RS.

From The Elliott Wave Principal regarding the end of wave 2's:

"put option premiums sink drastically as fear turns once again to mania"
"second waves end on extremely low volume and volatility as buying pressure dries up"
"investors are thoroughly convinced the bull market is back"

From The Elliott Wave Principal regarding the end of wave B's:

"B- waves are phonies, bull traps, speculators paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality and expresssions of dumb institutional complacency"
"often involve narrow list of focus stocks, rarely technically strong"
"often show more volume than the preceding impulse"
"choppy and volatile"

I have already stated I have a strong wave 2 rather than B wave bias here, either way the next decline could be painful. My only concession is that this wave 2 or B still could morph into a more complex corrective structure than the current A-B-C flat and then become much more difficult to apply EW counts.

Hank

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