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#16 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 16 May 2004 - 09:09 AM

EWI Count from January, doesn't go back to 80's ...

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#17 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 16 May 2004 - 09:12 AM

Prechter's dollar count...


So he is asserting this is a final huge C wave down (not 3rd) to complete a much larger corrective move in a multi decade bull in the dollar I guess???

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#18

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Posted 16 May 2004 - 02:05 PM

Prechter's dollar count...

. . .can't be right; there's no alternation between 2 and 4.

Unbelievable.

#19 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 16 May 2004 - 02:56 PM

. . .can't be right; there's no alternation between 2 and 4.


Yeah, almost identical in time and price and structure to boot! That is why I am thinking my 4 here is not over yet (2 was zig-zag) and implies more trouble for gold for now. I am thinking the final w.3:1:5 down in this huge w.3 decline will be accompanied by a B wave back up in gold,HUI then one more larger decline ( C) in gold as the dollar does stage a bigger degree rally w.3:2:A-->C... as first larger degree correction preceeding the 3rd of a 3rd down! See if this unfolds...

Looking a the largest degree wave 1 down that ended in 1987 with that spike down to around 85 from a top of 165. I don't see how Prechter, even if this current largest degree wave is a C, can think it will end here since it's not even close to .618 of w.A (= 72) yet??????????????

We both know by far most C's end at 1.0-1.618*A and very, very few at .618 and extremely rare at less than that!!!!!!!!!!!!

So I have no clue where he's coming from and sure would like to see a larger chart of Prechter's on the dollar and gold. I subscribed to a few monthly issues early in the year but even they did not have larger timespan counts. Anybody out there help us out????

Hank

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#20 traderfromhell

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Posted 16 May 2004 - 04:27 PM

I used to subscribe to Prechter's letter in the mid to late '70s. All that I can remember with any certainty is that he was looking for gold to bottom somewhere within wave 2 which is 100-200. He was looking for silver to bottom somewhere around 2.96. I read a Sinclair comment that we probably for all intents and purposes have seen these numbers at 250 and 3.54 if you figure in inflation. I can remember Russell saying many years ago he only used raw numbers and never figured in inflation because the "market" always figures in everything. This flies in the face of the bullish analyts who thought the Dow was a buy 25 years ago figuring in inflation.
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#21

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Posted 17 May 2004 - 06:07 AM

Looking a the largest degree wave 1 down that ended in 1987 with that spike down to around 85 from a top of 165. 

As you may recall, I have previously mentioned that I did not believe that move was impulsive and rather felt that the whole move down was an ending diagonal, albeit with puzzling implications given my fundamental and to my mind obvious, bearish view on the dollar.

However, though I could not necessarily square this with a new impulsive move down starting in 2001 I considered it was not necessary a key issue given the theoretical problem of applying Elliott wave theory to currencies (the constant growth assumption).

I have until this morning been proceeding under the assumption that the dollar was in a wave 4 correction Ė an expanded flat Ė but somewhat jarred by Prechterís (or one of his minions) glaring booboo I took a closer look at the chart for the first time in a while.

My first impression was that the current pattern in fact can almost certainly not be an expanded flat; the B wave has simply gone too far. Second, I just donít see how given developments the move down from 2001 can be impulsive.

What it looks like instead is at least a double zigzag. The first one is pretty obvious with an A=C relationship whereas I need to take another look at the intraday chart to try to see whether as drawn the second one appears properly formed; we could currently be in a B wave, though Iíd tend to consider that unlikely given the upturn in the 8 year cycle.

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#22

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Posted 17 May 2004 - 06:18 AM

As a quick reminder here is how I have drawn what I believe is the big ending diagonal.

I need to re-label everything subsequent to that once Iíve had a closer look but am confident that something impulsive can be constructed from the mishmash of the move up starting in the mid-1990s. Indeed I dimly recall having reached such a structure a while ago but discounting it due to my bearishness on the dollar!!

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#23 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 19 May 2004 - 09:36 PM

OK got a bit off topic with the Elliott Wave stuff, back to Gann.

TRUE TREND LINES

Gann used true trend lines extensively in his trading, yet few people know about them. Line up a major high or low on the time axis BUT use a different major high or low in price and draw a 1X1 up or down!
Here is one on the SP I have been tracking, you could draw one down from the all time high in price at the low's time. Think I will add that one for future reference.

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#24 traderfromhell

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Posted 26 May 2004 - 05:45 AM

I would be looking at the 50% retracement of the range 256-163 in the HUI for some strong resistance. We also have two old bottoms at the 207 level there.Two individual pm stocks I trade GSS and SSRI will be meeting resistance at 50% advances off the lows very soon. GSS bottomed at 3.75 and SSRI bottomed at 8.65. These areas should provide some strong resistance to further advance in the short term I would think. The RSI on both of these does not indicate overbought yet but if we were to reach these levels in the next few days I should think the RSI will get overbought. Upside volumes are not encouraging at all. Timing the repurchase will not be an easy task. For anyone with a strong stomach the buy off the 163 area was not a tough trade. The next low will not be so easy. I am looking for a lower volume retest on the next move down.
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#25 SevenOfEleven

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Posted 01 June 2004 - 03:46 AM

OK got a bit off topic with the Elliott Wave stuff, back to Gann.

TRUE TREND LINES

Gann used true trend lines extensively in his trading, yet few people know about them. Line up a major high or low on the time axis BUT use a different major high or low in price and draw a 1X1 up or down!
Here is one on the SP I have been tracking, you could draw one down from the all time high in price at the low's time. Think I will add that one for future reference.

I kind of like the mix of Elliott with Gann. Kind of like adding 'tips' to understanding the Gann better. Also, I really enjoy both your charts and Major Crapper's. Between the two of you it's like a feast for the brain for us still in kinderGannten.

One thing - you lost me on your chart of 'true trendlines' when you talk of price high versus time low :blink: are you sure you didn't mean to label that the other way around (e.g. Time high followed by price low?). If not - again, ya lost me.

One thing that would be helpful for anyone adding e-waves to their Gann charts here would be e-labeling on the charts.

Picky me - I know - but if you don't ask you'll never know.

Thanks guys - awsome!

-Seven

#26 traderfromhell

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Posted 08 June 2004 - 06:11 AM

Looking for a possible turn in the pm's and pm stocks 30 days from the May 10th low. Like towards the end of this week. May not be a major turn but if I was long and we took out the highs of two weeks ago I would cash out my long stock positions. Sometimes but rarely these can mark accelerations but with the weak upside volume and the severe destruction we've had I would not overstay my welcome if long.
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#27 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 11 June 2004 - 11:48 AM

are you sure you didn't mean to label that the other way around (e.g. Time high followed by price low?). If not - again, ya lost me.


THis labeling explains it better, I hope.

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#28 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 11 June 2004 - 12:11 PM

weak upside volume and the severe destruction we've had I would not overstay my welcome if long.


I am with you here...

Gold Fund FCS gave a buy signal but I didn't take the trade since I was gone but also don't like trading long after 50/200 DMA bearish cross-overs!!!!

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#29 traderfromhell

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Posted 11 June 2004 - 06:10 PM

I took a small position (25%) on Wednesday's close in a gold 150% index fund based on the 50% retraces in the indices 30 days from the May 10th lows. I will kick out the trade on a two day close under HUI 180. Seems like there is a lot of bearishness out there. This trade is definitely on a very short lease.
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#30 traderfromhell

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Posted 13 June 2004 - 07:39 AM

There seems to be an inordinate amount of bearishness on the metals right now. While I don't like the miners as much as the physical metals for this bull market I would be a buyer if the shares broke badly from this area as long as 62 is not violated in the XAU index. This marks the 3rd higher bottom and would signal a definite end to the bull market in shares. The move into the May 10th bottom looks like a capitulation low and if we were to make a lower low I would bet it would be on much lighter volume. I would scale in buying of the metals from this level.
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