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B4 the Bell, Tuezleday 5404


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#1 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 07:36 AM

Uncle Bucky slipped on a bannana peel and is trading just below .90. Gold and silver in London are up about 1%. Noted a crossing pattern on London silver this morning, first in quite a while.

Of course the 3 AM boner showed up today. The day when Lizard boy looks to see if he has a shadow and then pronounces that there will be 6 more weeks of K-Winter level interest rates. The Fed is boxed. They can't raise rates and they know it. Our glorious recovery exists only in the mind of the plutocrats and elitists. The global markets may have another point of view on the long end of the curve in which case it won't be a curve so much as it is an interest rate pole.

I'm beginning to wonder if the first victim of high gasoline prices won't be the eateries. Last Wednesday went to my favorite local for a Mexican lunch. Normally I have to park down the street when arriving at 12:15. Not so last week many open spaces in the lot. The following day ate at A & W (pad position on a China-Mart Super Duper lot). Same thing normally 3-6 cars in line and the indoor eating is pretty full. Once again last week, no one in line and only a few cars parked in the lot. Does lunch become the first discretionary item cut? Maybe it was just an end of the month thing wherein the monthly budget didn't quite stretch far enough, but even if that is the case, we could easily be talking a 5-10% revenue drop. Not important but it's the kind of thing that catches my eye.

Locally fuel prices continue to edge up. Regular now averaging about $1.93. Diesel since heating season ended and refineries have shifted their blends has jumped to about $2.07 where three weeks ago it was below regular. Despite all of Detroit's protestations about how Amurikans love their SUVs and will continue to buy them no matter the price of fuel looks to be getting bitch slapped with reality. The local dealers are running liquidation sales on SUVs and trucks. If sales shift to more fuel efficient vehicles, the Japanese & Koreans will benefit the most. Detroit loses money on small cars and barely makes any on their luxury cars. They have for the last decade relied on their trucks and SUVs for the bulk of their auto related profits. Lose that market combined with declining mortgage activity (think GMAC here) and one wonders what Detroit will do for profits in the coming years. Your next Impala may come from China.

#2 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 07:50 AM

Great read over at Financial Sense Online

"The Federal Reserve, Dept of Treasury, USGovt, and Wall Street together have colluded to deceive the American public on where inflation comes from, how inflation works, what inflation outcomes are, how to measure inflation, even what it really is. My oft-used label is to call the Federal Reserve the Dept of Inflation, and Chairman Greenspan the Secy of Inflation. These labels are not used lightly. Our nationís first peacetime deployment of an intentional policy of inflation occurred in the middle 1970 decade, in response to a highly damaging shock from quadrupled OPEC oil prices. We inflated away some debts, rendered energy costs comparatively cheaper, and made adjustments within the vast cost structures, but hardly without severe damage to the economy, stock market, bond market, federal balance sheet, and our national integrity"......more

Greenspam ..."Secretary of Inflation" Brilliant

http://www.financial...rket/wrapup.htm
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#3 Bearman

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 07:55 AM

yobob1 how bout motorhomes and fuel?

does the analogy if you got to ask the price

you can't afford it?

FWIW Full Moon today and Lunar Eclipse :o

Yikes history shows thats when crashes have taken place :o

#4 Hiding Bear

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 08:04 AM

Uncle Al's A.R.M. Army:

As Household Debt Rises, New Risk in Higher Rates
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS

Published: May 4, 2004

WASHINGTON, May 3 - Philo Thompson is 28, single and - like many other Americans these days - not afraid to stretch when it comes to buying a house.

A management consultant in Denver, Mr. Thompson bought a $500,000 townhouse last Friday in the suburb of North Cherry Creek.

As many other first-time homeowners have done, Mr. Thompson put no money down. Instead, he took out a first mortgage for 80 percent of the purchase price and paid the rest by taking a home equity loan against the new house. To reduce his monthly payments, and to qualify for a big enough loan, he took out an adjustable rate mortgage that requires him to make only interest payments.

People like Mr. Thompson could get squeezed if interest rates start to rise. With economic growth looking strong and hints of inflation in the air, Federal Reserve officials have made it clear that the era of extraordinarily cheap money is slowly drawing to a close. Yet Mr. Thompson betrays no worries.


http://www.nytimes.c...ess/04debt.html

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#5 DrStool

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 08:12 AM

Seems the NY Times catches up with what Doc has been reporting, but only three months later. If you want history, read the Times. If you want real time insight, read the Anals. Take a subscribatory and get in NOW. Click the link below and in 90 seconds, you'll be in!

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#6 DrStool

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 08:13 AM

Sweet Spot

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#7

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 08:26 AM

LLD:

Great post. I usually check FS but failed to do so this am.

:blink:

#8 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 08:42 AM

LLD:

Great post. I usually check FS but failed to do so this am.

:blink:

Its all there but sadly, if presented to the population at large, few would be able to connect the dots or care for that matter :ph34r:
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#9 NWD

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 08:44 AM

Yobob;

Yes, they are in a box.

I'm arriving at the distasteful conclusion that the Hypertiger scenario pretty faithfully maps out the future, but perhaps not through the pathway he envisions.

Instead of Hypertiger's abrupt collapse of monetary and credit aggregates, look for them to peg the yield curve permanently into the desired configuration through monetary inflation and solve the ensuing price parabola by confabulating fictitious statistics.

Hypertiger says it can't be done. I'm not so sure. I lived through LBJ's "guns and butter" era. It can happen again.

Same-o, same-o.

Caveat: anyone who listens to me needs to have his head examined.

#10 DrStool

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 08:50 AM

Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit.

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#11 Bearman

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 08:54 AM

Lock Limit Down great info

makes my blood boil....

its good to be alive!

#12 longOnUranus

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 08:59 AM

I don't see anything on GM yet on Dow Jokes news...bet they wait 'till after Greeny...I'm short DCX

Good day for an XAU bounce...we'll see 90 in a week, me thinks.

re: FSO article..great read. The author reads collusion, I read desperation. I don't think the world will ever see the fractional reserve problem. I do think it'll see the gold standard problem, and date the demise from '72 on.

They know the problem is not fixable.

#13 Hypertiger

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 09:07 AM

Yobob;

Yes, they are in a box.

I'm arriving at the distasteful conclusion that the Hypertiger scenario pretty faithfully maps out the future, but perhaps not through the pathway he envisions.

Instead of Hypertiger's abrupt collapse of monetary and credit aggregates, look for them to peg the yield curve permanently into the desired configuration through monetary inflation and solve the ensuing price parabola by confabulating fictitious statistics.

Hypertiger says it can't be done. I'm not so sure. I lived through LBJ's "guns and butter" era. It can happen again.

Same-o, same-o.

Caveat: anyone who listens to me needs to have his head examined.

That lead to where we are now...It is still Guns and Butter...It's like Las Vegas...you pay to play...once you can not afford to pay to play...Then it's over unless they pay us to play...That has never happened in all of recorded history and the system is not designed that way...

Changing the rich get richer and poor get poorer to the poor get richer and the rich get poorer...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#14

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 09:13 AM

LLD:

Great post.  I usually check FS but failed to do so this am.

:blink:

Its all there but sadly, if presented to the population at large, few would be able to connect the dots or care for that matter :ph34r:

Oh so very true.

Conditioned responses are telling and when terminology changes....the effect is to

mask total meaning.

To bad that personal responsibility and financial stewardship have been thrown to

the 4-winds of force-8 strength.

:(

#15 brian4

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Posted 04 May 2004 - 09:30 AM

Morning crew- The pig flies alone at the open-looks higher. I hate FOMC meetings-everything grinds to a halt-while a room full of aging White guys sit around arguing about who gets the last Prune Danish. ;)





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