Really weak-end thread Aprl 30th- May2nd
261 replies to this topic
Posted 30 April 2004 - 10:39 PM
Bears favorite pastime.
Posted 30 April 2004 - 10:44 PM
The people from the North got it right --
"TORONTO — More than eight in 10 Canadians harbour a strong dislike for U.S. President George Bush, according to a new poll released, hours before Prime Minister Paul Martin met the U.S. leader on Friday."
80% of Canadians dislike Bush: poll
Posted 30 April 2004 - 11:10 PM
these pic's will become the equivalant to Nam's Mei-Lie as far as the international community is concerned.
edit spelling- My Lai
"In order to form an immaculate member of a flock of sheep one must, above all, be a sheep."
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Posted 30 April 2004 - 11:42 PM
Ah- yes Einstein-Lt. William Calley another dumb red - neck. I have posted many times about the rules of engagement of British troops and Canadian and Aussie Troops- simple Fire when fired upon, U.S. troops kill them sum Bitches before they kill you author of the Doctrine of overwhelming force-former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs-Colin Powell-sad really sad!-when you recruit you test for physcotics and or physcopaths unless of course you like them and they fit the bill and the mold.
Posted 01 May 2004 - 12:39 AM
Yep Robbie i saw that-i like your Generals comments at least someone is in charge-when the Prezydent puts people in out door Tiger Cages shackled 24-7 and then suddenly gets pissed at the rough treatment that others receive it's a gotcha!
Posted 01 May 2004 - 01:46 AM
Be back in a while...just got home, and want to enjoy a quick read of B$ the Bell for Friday, first...
Posted 01 May 2004 - 05:29 AM
God knows I need the chance too only unloaded x1 on DOWPIG Dong yesterday and need to get out of the other 2 dongs. I like to use sentiment and what I see is cautious bears on most of the boards[no back slapping yet compared to say end of September 2003] which mean that this decline could be even more severe than I previously expected[still do expect 965 by August]....plus as I mentioned last night this decline didnt seem to want to wait until May to get started.
we will c ....cause I am ready to get fully short but not at these levels.
Posted 01 May 2004 - 05:33 AM
Madame,I'm afraid I don't see the sense in having remained long since dropping through the 50dma. Although we very well might rally back up to it, it seems to me that there's more risk in hoping for this to happen, than to unload the first time we sliced through it.
Funny thing is I am not only hoping to get outa my dongs but I agree with you as well. Thing is on the other boards I kinda look on for rough sentiment.. 90% of the bears/ 100% of the bulls are also expecting a bounce early next week.
We may get a small bounce 10-15 SPX points then go down in another leg OR we just CRASH if the bears dont get more bearish
we will c
Posted 01 May 2004 - 07:41 AM
I just looked at the major B% indices, they got all a hit yesterday and are looking very bearish now...new low for the BPSPX, even no new price low, fewer and fewer intems in the SPX holding the bag up...
Posted 01 May 2004 - 08:10 AM
New terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia
Initial report seems to be hits in three cities,
one place an American/Saudi joint venture oil companies offices.
Former Iraqi General (Sadaam's guy?) is seen leading the new
Iraqi troops but not yet fully confirmed.
Posted 01 May 2004 - 08:42 AM
As I have read through the various bearish commentators (Maudlin, Noland, etc.) this morning, I am once again struck with how each seems narrowly focused on their specialties or pet peeves and their reluctance to reach out for another piece of the puzzle. No one seems overly concerned over the intermediate term prefering to defer their most bearish prognostications out a year or more. Maybe they're right, however it seems to me when you put the puzzle together from a mega-macro view, there should be alarm bells going off, a mad scramble for the lifeboats and fisticuffs over the relative few life preservers available. It's almost as if each factor represents a plug in a hole and the removal or failure of any one of those plugs could send the whole thing to Davey Jones locker quicker than you can say oops.
The damage wielded on the stocks and bonds this week has considerably loosened two of those plugs. When push comes to shove, I'm fairly sure they will defend the bonds (to the best of their ability) in preference to the stocks. The one thing that cannot be allowed is the loss of IR control. One of the primary supporters of the bond markets has been of course our Asian friends. I expect this to continue, though perhaps not to the degree we have seen over the last year. It may not be enough. While individual small players can exact little influence, a high percentage of those small players moving in the same direction could easily be as influential as a single large player. Given the geo-political situation, I think the influence of a cohesive move by numerous small players is a distinct possibility.
We have George Bush (and his predecessors) and all who supported this unholy war in Iraq to thank for that. "We have come to save you. Unfortunately we must first destroy your homes and infrastucture, litter your land with DU and unexploded munitions, and kill, maim and torture a whole bunch of your innocent citizens. See how much better off you are? And you never thanked us for putting Saddam in power in the first place and then providing him with the support and weapons to keep him in power until he no longer proved useful. Ingrates."
This war is about oil and nothing else. It is sickening to see people constantly trying to wrap it in various justifications for their own mental appeasement. Perhaps after we have killed a few thousand of our own young people and permanently disabled 10s of thousands more we will see the light. I expect not.
Our "war on drugs" was never intended to be won. Indeed if anything it has made drugs more available. Our war on terror will have exactly the same outcome. We are making far more terrorists than we can ever hope to eliminate. The "terrorists" (anybody that doesn't agree with the administration under the Patriot Act) have actually already won the war against the US by causing us to take on a siege mentality and allowing our government to tear up, light on fire and dance with glee upon our Constitution. Destroy the Constitution and this country is dead.
At any rate how the world views the US has certainly not improved over the last year. At some level that will influence the world's investment decisions. Considering that we must attract somewhere in the area of 2 billion dollars a day of the world's savings and profits (aproximately 80-90% of the global total savings and profits) I'd say we were skating on very thin ice indeed.
Of course the US Government can spend till the cows come home and stimulate the hell out of everything, right? Well no, not really. Most of our government debt is stupidly financed short term. A rise in interest rates will rapidly impact the budget as interest payments eat up larger and larger chunks of the budget. We will soon surpass 1 trillion dollars in deficits or roughly 10% of GDP which by the way is wildly overstated through hedonics, double counting and the inclusion of government which produces nothing and conusmes all. That basically means we would have to procure all of the total global savings and profits and still find ourselves short. I think the world will cut us off before that happens.
What of the mighty American consumer/home buyer? I think that cover is about to be ripped off. The surge of tax and refi stimulus has passed. Since the first of the year another 1 million plus have exhausted their federal unemployment extensions and are now out of luck. By any metric you choose, consumer debt levels are at historic highs. Home ownership and prices are at historic highs while equity levels have plunged to historic lows. All of this with a fed rate of 1% that is clearly well below par and effectively a negative rate of 2-3%. If rates are forced up on the global markets by even small amounts (which would be high percentage moves) the ice under us gets thinner yet.
Of course all of this is dwarfed by the financial economy which has been the major benefactor of Easy Al's largesse'. Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble. Behind all of this "magic" lies a 200 trillion dollar swaying tower of derivatives. Derivatives that are unregulated and so deeply veiled that even the insiders don't have a clue as to who or what might trigger a cascading series of defaults. At the pincale of this inverted pyramid lies the little pool of insurers. That will prove to be as effective as using rice paper as a condom. And you thought LTM was the ultimate ride. This one will pull so many g's your head will come plumb off.
I am struck by the crowding into consumer staples, energy, and healthcare. Now the first I can see somewhat as a defensive position, and energy is self explanatory for now, but health care? Based on, one would assume, all of the aging boomers, but can they pay for it? I don't think so. The pool of insured is shrinking which means that the remaining "swimmers" have to pick up a larger percentage of the bill. The more costs rise, the more get drowned, and the pool gets smaller. You might note the number of hospitals and such reporting declines in profits due to unrecoverable fees. It will get a lot worse going forward until the insurers literally price themselves out of the market at which time the whole health care complex will find themselves with a very large number of needy customers without the ability to pay.
One final note for Hiding Bear and my "guess" on silver's behaviour of late. I commented that the shorts needed an exit. I said this because they had a postion 9 times as large as the longs and they were severly underwater. The parabolic rise in price was capped when the long margin rules on silver were changed leaving some longs exposed and therefore eager to take their profits. With the comparitively small number of longs, a small amount of selling quickly cascaded as the longs wanted out trying to protect whatever profits they had accumulated. The underwater shorts didn't have to do anything, other than wait. The problem now is with the huge number of shorts, they can't all exit without causing large price spikes. Friday's action may have been some of that. I think it is going to take some time to work off the untenable short position and therfore the reason for my guess that we might see a period of sideways chop. I guessed a bottom in the 5.25-5.50 range and we briefly touched just above 5.5, so I'm not prepared to call the bottom, though it may prove to have been in retrospect. (If anyone acts on my musings they are the greater fool. Do your own homework boys and girls ) I haven't a clue whether that will be measured in days, weeks or months, but as a wild assed guess, I'd venture maybe about a month or so. If we see huge gap ups, then the shorts have panicked, but I don't honestly expect that.
The bullish fundamentals on silver do nothing but get stronger every day as more is conusmed than is produced and world stockpiles are approaching depletion. Please, these comments are directed towards the physical only. I don't personally play the miners. If I did I wouldn't be a buyer here, though if I had core holdings from much lower levels I wouldn't sell either. I still suspect that when the broader markets collapse, (yes Virginia, I still see the Dow trading at no more than 2X true book value at some point = <2000; possibly as low as <1X book) miners are just as vulnerable as any other pretty little piece of paper. So if I'm ever inclined to purchase a stock again I will wait until the pile has collapsed and then one can take their time kicking through the rubble to find the gems. In my case that's a big if.
Posted 01 May 2004 - 09:01 AM
The use of sentiment indicators to guide trading decisions is something akin to a death wish. Price based indicators using at least 3 time frames, preferably more are the most reliable means of timing the market. I have rarely seen them more bearish. When the indicators collapsed following 4 attempts to break major resistance at 1143, that was as clear a signal as the market can give.
I expect a bloodbath next week. Follow the indicators daily. Let Doc do the work for you. Take a subscribatory to the Anals. Get in right now! Click the link below, and you will be in within a minute and a half, or less if you type fast, and have your credit card number in front of you. This coming week may be the most important opportunity in your entire trading life. Don't miss it! Take a subscribatory and get in to the Anals NOW! Click the link below NOW!
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Posted 01 May 2004 - 09:52 AM
well thought out.
one major reason i think crash happens
everybody has an area they want to be in
nobody is in or wants cash
that's how crashes happen
i never saw cramer before but saw him fri night
i imagine he's typical you have to be in this out of that
administration will not allow itself to be blamed for market decline
some cover is neccessary
perfect situtation for "terrorist attack"
Posted 01 May 2004 - 10:09 AM
"No one seems overly concerned over the intermediate term prefering to defer their most bearish prognostications out a year or more. Maybe they're right, however it seems to me when you put the puzzle together from a mega-macro view, there should be alarm bells going off, a mad scramble for the lifeboats and fisticuffs over the relative few life preservers available. It's almost as if each factor represents a plug in a hole and the removal or failure of any one of those plugs could send the whole thing to Davey Jones locker quicker than you can say oops."
COULD NOT AGREE MORE.
PLEASE listen to the guy the TE recommended this a.m about Relative Time speeding up. It may sound a bit crazy at first but its still worth a listen. So many people expect the normal Presidential & 4 year cycle timing...even me....what if we are all wrong and the BEAR get restarted earlier than anyone thinks !
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